I respect Mcnoldy but he really has been beating the south drum for days in a not terribly productive way. I understand the verification early on has been poor but like with stocks, past performance is not indicative of future results. I give the NHC some grace on the early miss with not clocking how close this would get to Mexico. models really struggled with this early on and even when it was in early TS phase. It’s generally best to bet against explosive rapid RI until it’s happening, and I imagine that also impacted track. But just becuase they have been north of track doesn’t mean they always will be. Storms getting steered like this often move on parabolas but don’t care where they came from. Katrina crossing Florida kept going south of forecast too and ultimately swung right at landfall. The point is, the storm doesn’t care where the nhc had it 3 days ago, it will go where it wants today, and it isn’t a great reason to cast doubt on NHC’s accuracy or professionalism in the midst of what may be one of the areas worst storms of record. But hey everybody needs clicks and engagement I guess. Nice data, but I would like to see his own forecast from 5 days ago if he’s going to throw shade.
