Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[HockeyTx82]

Well the temps have gone up a bit on Thursday night but way down for the high on Friday. Also the precip chances went from rain to wintry mix with higer chances. Something is going on.......

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

[somethingfunny]

So wxman, msstateguy, wall_cloud and others, if I decide to warm up the car and go on a snow chase, where would you suggest I go?

[WacoWx]

if it were me, i'd go to Aspen or Vail.

[msstateguy83]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 262142
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS
THE FA WITHIN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW... WHILE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...INITIAL SURGE OF
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND NOON.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE RATHER WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF MOST AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF FA. STILL A CHALLENGING (PRECIP-TYPE) FORECAST
BUT MAINLY USED THE 12Z NAM THERMAL STRUCTURE FOR (TYPE--- CHANGE
OVER) WITH COLDER GFS SURFACE NUMBERS.

AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF HOBART...EL RENO...STILLWATER WILL HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SLEET. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF SEMINOLE...DUNCAN...AND WICHITA FALLS WILL HAVE BEST
OPPORTUNITY OF HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
MAY SEE MAINLY A COLD RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS.

AFTER FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD INTO SUNDAY WITH
NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN TO EASTERN PARTS OF FA ON MONDAY.

[msstateguy83]

per oun's latest forecast disc expect the front passed thru most of the fa by early thu am.. so could be well into n.tx by that time... iam telling you that front is key to this whole puzzle......

[wxman57]

OK, 18Z NAM fully in. Let's compare the 18Z run to the 12Z.

First for SPS. 18Z NAM is MUCH drier in the cold air than the 12Z run

18Z NAM for SPS:


12Z NAM for SPS:


Now, for DFW. Both runs are fairly dry for GFS in the cold air. The 18Z NAM is also a few degrees warmer for DFW on Friday:

18Z NAM for DFW:


12Z NAM for DFW:


So the trends in both the GFS and NAM from 12Z to 18Z are a little drier and a little warmer for the DFW to SPS area for Friday. I.E., they're both trending toward less freezing/frozen precip.

However, Wichita Falls may be pretty close to some heavier snow amounts.

What'll really tell the story as far as precip types will be the vertical temperature profiles. Don't have time to run them now, as I'm about ready to go home. Will look at them from home this evening.

[Weatherdude20]

Well the temps have gone up a bit on Thursday night but way down for the high on Friday. Also the precip chances went from rain to wintry mix with higer chances. Something is going on.......

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

Thats what confused me, haha I just think the NWSFO is confused...

[HockeyTx82]

Well the temps have gone up a bit on Thursday night but way down for the high on Friday. Also the precip chances went from rain to wintry mix with higer chances. Something is going on.......

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

Thats what confused me, haha I just think the NWSFO is confused...

As little as I know, and trust me I don't know very much about weather, it just seems that there are so many things that have to come together for this thing to happen. The Christmas Eve storm snuck up on everyone and really came down. Does this one pose the same? Perhaps? When should we have a clearer picture of what to expect other then when it gets here and does what it is going to do............?

[msstateguy83]

someone who can look @ the gfs temp data for me iam looking over precip as it comes in..

[msstateguy83]

48 hrs out... NEW GFS RUN....

[HockeyTx82]

48 hrs out... NEW GFS RUN....

So is it safe to say at this point we will have more then enough moisture? Just a matter of what type of precip falls in your area?

[Weatherdude20]

Well the temps have gone up a bit on Thursday night but way down for the high on Friday. Also the precip chances went from rain to wintry mix with higer chances. Something is going on.......

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

Thats what confused me, haha I just think the NWSFO is confused...

As little as I know, and trust me I don't know very much about weather, it just seems that there are so many things that have to come together for this thing to happen. The Christmas Eve storm snuck up on everyone and really came down. Does this one pose the same? Perhaps? When should we have a clearer picture of what to expect other then when it gets here and does what it is going to do............?

Yes, it has the potential to rapidly change for the worse, and hopefully the new data is coming in anytime now, so analyzations will be done soon as well.

[msstateguy83]

exactly... thats been my point thats why i have been so dang animated about this and to the point, hopefully people on here that listen to us are catching on *IF* the front comes thru early enough this could all spell MAJOR, MAJOR AND I MEAN MAJOR problems with ice & snow... if the air is cold enough in the upper levels it could be a major snowstorm unlike we have seen...

[msstateguy83]

weatherdude if you can grab some temp readings for me if you can from this run iam goin over all the precip data closely...

[msstateguy83]

[Weatherdude20]

Well 27 for Wichita Falls at that time.

[Ntxw]

FW

...WINTER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO
WACO...TO TERRELL...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OCCURRING FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO GAINESVILLE WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WHERE THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK. HOWEVER...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...RESIDENTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR ANY CHANGES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[msstateguy83]

if you go by snow depth charts on twisterdata it puts all the heavy snow up north.. but sometimes you gotta use your brains... surface temps, upper level temps @ that time,exc,exc....

[msstateguy83]

this has moved further se from the 12z run will post shortly...

TOP ONE IS 12Z BOTTOM 18Z

[somethingfunny]

I'm concerned by the forecasts of 3"+ of rain before the front moves through. That would bring some localized flooding problems for sure.

With that much water saturated into the ground I would think that it would take quite some time for the ground to reach freezing even after the air temperature dips below freezing, so I don't anticipate any accumulations of ice or snow except perhaps on overpasses.

*Referring to the DFW area, that is.