ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

Odd to see the first appearance of an eye corresponding with warming cloud tops, outflow boundaries, and an overall much more ragged satellite appearance. EWRC?

Well it would have to have an eye in the first place to go through an EWRC. Its just getting one now so that cant be the case. Its more than likely responding to the close proximity to land and whatever shear is over it isnt helping. When this thing finally starts to pull away i wouldnt be surprised to see its appearance improve

AFAIK recon were finding double wind maxima earlier. She's certainly always had a closed eyewall--whether it's clear on visible/IR imagery is irrelevent.

[CronkPSU]

He wrote 11PM on it, it was on purpose, that was to compare last nights track to todays track.

Oops, thanks and sorry 'bout dat!

no worries, i should have been more clear that i was trying to compare where the had it forecasted to where it was now

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231719
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 27 20110823
170900 2043N 07104W 6912 03014 9755 +139 +117 143032 034 042 001 03
170930 2041N 07105W 6912 03007 9751 +138 +114 140024 029 036 001 00
171000 2040N 07107W 6917 02997 9750 +136 +118 140012 016 030 000 00
171030 2039N 07108W 6909 03006 9740 +144 +113 123005 009 024 000 03
171100 2038N 07110W 6916 03000 9746 +141 +109 007006 008 025 000 03
171130 2037N 07111W 6915 03006 9750 +141 +105 347013 015 /// /// 03
171200 2038N 07113W 6914 03007 9752 +141 +107 005015 015 024 004 03
171230 2040N 07113W 6914 03004 9746 +142 +102 029018 020 031 000 00
171300 2042N 07112W 6916 03004 9746 +145 +100 038023 024 035 000 00
171330 2043N 07112W 6914 03006 9754 +139 +103 042022 023 039 001 03
171400 2045N 07112W 6916 03009 9764 +135 +107 065026 030 044 001 00
171430 2047N 07112W 6916 03018 9780 +129 +112 081037 041 054 003 03
171500 2048N 07112W 6916 03026 9800 +115 //// 085047 049 065 007 01
171530 2050N 07112W 6915 03039 //// +097 //// 086054 056 068 010 01
171600 2052N 07112W 6914 03054 //// +100 //// 085057 058 069 007 01
171630 2054N 07112W 6909 03069 //// +089 //// 087059 060 068 010 01
171700 2055N 07112W 6914 03075 //// +089 //// 088062 067 065 015 01
171730 2057N 07112W 6921 03075 //// +074 //// 085063 063 063 011 01
171800 2059N 07112W 6911 03098 9898 +098 //// 087063 064 061 009 01
171830 2100N 07112W 6916 03099 9893 +106 +103 087062 062 060 005 00

[tolakram]

AFAIK recon were finding double wind maxima earlier. She's certainly always had a closed eyewall--whether it's clear on visible/IR imagery is irrelevent.

Recon has reported twice that eyewall was open to the SW.

Last vortex message.

000
URNT12 KNHC 231619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/15:56:00Z
B. 20 deg 35 min N
071 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2909 m
D. 58 kt
E. 273 deg 13 nm
F. 357 deg 58 kt
G. 273 deg 13 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 9 C / 3116 m
J. 15 C / 3105 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 16:02:30Z
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
BKN CLDS BLO
;

[GaryOBX]

Hyde County in NC will declare a State of Emergency Wednesday morning at 5:00. All visitors to Ocracoke Island and the Hyde County mainland will be under a mandatory evacuation. Residents will be under a mandatory evacuation Thursday morning at 5:00.

More...

[clfenwi]

UZNT13 KNHC 231719
XXAA 73177 99208 70710 08001 99983 25807 09067 00650 ///// /////
92538 23209 11081 85276 20209 13070 70939 12203 13064 88999 77999
31313 09608 81707
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 18
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2083N07109W 1711 MBL WND 09581 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 12069 983691 WL150 09075 084 REL 2079N07100W 170711 SPG 208
3N07108W 171136 =
XXBB 73178 99208 70710 08001 00983 25807 11850 20209 22706 13405
33691 10400
21212 00983 09067 11978 08576 22970 09073 33965 09590 44964 09592
55960 09588 66951 10089 77943 10579 88925 11081 99917 11089 11911
11079 22905 11077 33877 12078 44856 12568 55850 13070 66736 12065
77691 13563
31313 09608 81707
61616 AF302 0809A IRENE OB 18
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2083N07109W 1711 MBL WND 09581 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 12069 983691 WL150 09075 084 REL 2079N07100W 170711 SPG 208
3N07108W 171136 =

[drezee]

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.8N 71.0W
Location: 47 miles (75 km) between the SSE and S (169°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
983mb (29.03 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F) 90° (from the E) 67 knots (77 mph)
1000mb -150m (-492 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 538m (1,765 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.3°C (72.1°F) 110° (from the ESE) 81 knots (93 mph)
850mb 1,276m (4,186 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 19.3°C (66.7°F) 130° (from the SE) 70 knots (81 mph)
700mb 2,939m (9,642 ft) 12.2°C (54.0°F) 11.9°C (53.4°F) 130° (from the SE) 64 knots (74 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:07Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 045° (NE) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 20.83N 71.09W
Splash Time: 17:11Z

Release Location: 20.79N 71W View map)
Release Time: 17:07:11Z

Splash Location: 20.83N 71.08W (
Splash Time: 17:11:36Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 691mb to 983mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 75 knots (86 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
983mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F)
850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 19.3°C (66.7°F)
706mb 13.4°C (56.1°F) 12.9°C (55.2°F)
691mb 10.4°C (50.7°F) 10.4°C (50.7°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
983mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 67 knots (77 mph)
978mb 85° (from the E) 76 knots (87 mph)
970mb 90° (from the E) 73 knots (84 mph)
965mb 95° (from the E) 90 knots (104 mph)
964mb 95° (from the E) 92 knots (106 mph)
960mb 95° (from the E) 88 knots (101 mph)
951mb 100° (from the E) 89 knots (102 mph)
943mb 105° (from the ESE) 79 knots (91 mph)
925mb 110° (from the ESE) 81 knots (93 mph)
917mb 110° (from the ESE) 89 knots (102 mph)
911mb 110° (from the ESE) 79 knots (91 mph)
905mb 110° (from the ESE) 77 knots (89 mph)
877mb 120° (from the ESE) 78 knots (90 mph)
856mb 125° (from the SE) 68 knots (78 mph)
850mb 130° (from the SE) 70 knots (81 mph)
736mb 120° (from the ESE) 65 knots (75 mph)
691mb 135° (from the SE) 63 knots (72 mph)

[bexar]

not impressive looking lately, some convection is kinda waning.

[GCANE]

Lifted Index is running around -6 to -7 over the eastern end of Cuba.

Afternoon heating will likely fire some strong thunderstorms and fill in the mid-level dry slot to the west of Irene.

If that happens, it should help to get Irene back on track.

[hurricanefloyd5]

this storm is moving almost due west it looks on the sat. loop

[mutley]

In those steering layer maps, where they show regions of higher pressure, what is the meaning between less lines farther apart, and more lines closer together? Anyone?

Closer lines means higher "gradient". Think of a higher gradient as being a steeper hillside with the 'height' of the high pressure dome being the mountain top.

Also, where lines are close together the flow is stronger. Farther apart means weaker winds thus weaker steering.

Thanks. I had assumed "higher gradient" also meant more force to reckon with.

[FireRat]

The anticyclone that was closer/over Irene is now well displaced to the southwest. 15-20 knots of shear is causing the system to have a lopsided look. The trough is helping to push dry air into the circulation, which can be seen as numerous outflow boundaries are evident on the W side Irene. SHIPS isn't forecasting shear to drop all that much until like 30 hours from now. To be honest i really doubt she is a cat 2 anymore. Just my opinion.

if this holds true then I guess she would probably not reach major status anymore.


this is turning out to be a luckluster season again.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Lackluster?........The Bahamas won't be saying that and the Turks and Caicos are already getting hurricane weather. This season has already become more dangerous to the US and other areas than 2010 ever was!

[bahamaswx]

this storm is moving almost due west it looks on the sat. loop

Don't track her based on a partially cleared eye. Stick with recon fixes!

[gatorcane]

Live 30 frame loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

If you speed this up and assume you can guess where the center is you can derive the overall motion, which to my eyes is still W of NW.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I knows you mean Aric, but I see no evidence this will get remotely close to South FL. Model guidance is strongly clustered well east.

BTW, I just saw a NW wobble

[drezee]

Pressure likely down to 976 now:


Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 17:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 19

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 23rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 20.6N 71.2W
Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the S (184°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
977mb (28.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 25.7°C (78.3°F) 185° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb -203m (-666 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 489m (1,604 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 190° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 1,228m (4,029 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.0°C (68.0°F) 170° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
700mb 2,895m (9,498 ft) 15.2°C (59.4°F) 12.0°C (53.6°F) 230° (from the SW) 1 knots (1 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:10Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 20.65N 71.15W
Splash Time: 17:15Z

Release Location: 20.64N 71.15W View map)
Release Time: 17:10:45Z

Splash Location: 20.65N 71.15W (
Splash Time: 17:14:39Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 691mb to 977mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
977mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 25.7°C (78.3°F)
850mb 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.0°C (68.0°F)
750mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) 14.8°C (58.6°F)
703mb 15.6°C (60.1°F) 12.3°C (54.1°F)
691mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) 11.2°C (52.2°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
977mb (Surface) 185° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
935mb 200° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
884mb 185° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
865mb 185° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 170° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
829mb 200° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)
797mb 205° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
772mb 190° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
743mb 205° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
691mb 40° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph)


---

[micktooth]

Hyde County in NC will declare a State of Emergency Wednesday morning at 5:00. All visitors to Ocracoke Island and the Hyde County mainland will be under a mandatory evacuation. Residents will be under a mandatory evacuation Thursday morning at 5:00.

More...

Good luck to you and your neighbors. As someone who was hit by Katrina, let me give you some advice that is never mentioned on the evacuation checklist. If indeed the storm looks like it is coming your way and you have to leave: CLEAN OUT YOUR REFRIGERATOR AND FREEZER!!!! If the power is out for a long time, you will return to the most disgusting stench you have ever smelled. Please pass this advice along to anyone you know who might be evacuating!

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231729
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 28 20110823
171900 2102N 07112W 6914 03102 9898 +103 //// 092060 062 058 005 01
171930 2104N 07111W 6914 03112 9914 +097 //// 098059 061 060 010 01
172000 2106N 07111W 6913 03113 9917 +088 //// 105058 059 060 008 01
172030 2107N 07111W 6919 03114 //// +074 //// 105059 062 059 009 01
172100 2109N 07111W 6924 03112 //// +077 //// 104056 059 059 012 01
172130 2111N 07111W 6921 03116 //// +071 //// 103055 062 058 017 01
172200 2113N 07111W 6915 03144 //// +078 //// 102048 049 056 011 01
172230 2115N 07111W 6914 03149 //// +078 //// 098046 048 054 012 01
172300 2116N 07111W 6917 03148 //// +062 //// 093044 046 051 013 01
172330 2118N 07111W 6912 03156 9974 +084 //// 093045 046 051 006 01
172400 2120N 07111W 6916 03153 9974 +092 //// 096051 053 056 001 05
172430 2122N 07111W 6917 03155 9977 +092 //// 096050 052 050 000 05
172500 2124N 07111W 6913 03164 9985 +088 //// 097048 050 048 006 01
172530 2125N 07110W 6915 03165 9992 +088 //// 098044 046 048 005 01
172600 2127N 07110W 6915 03168 9996 +088 //// 098044 044 048 002 01
172630 2129N 07110W 6914 03170 9995 +089 //// 097041 042 048 003 01
172700 2131N 07110W 6916 03168 9998 +087 //// 103040 044 049 002 01
172730 2133N 07110W 6911 03175 //// +078 //// 102046 048 048 005 01
172800 2134N 07110W 6918 03167 //// +073 //// 097042 045 048 003 01
172830 2136N 07110W 6914 03173 //// +075 //// 095041 041 047 006 01
$$

[Weatherboy1]

Just curious if a weaker system would tend to be steered more westerly. Shallow BAM is far more westerly than deep layer BAM model for instance. Still think were out of the woods here in FL but could be a closer call if this westerly trend persists through the overnight hours

[tolakram]

I knows you mean Aric, but I see no evidence

Under no circumstance am I predicting where Irene is going because I have no clue. I assume model consensus is correct.

[mascpa]

8:00 AM 20.6, 70.6. 11:00 AM 20.5, 71.0. Seems west to me, even if only temporary.