Texas Winter 2012-2013

[South Texas Storms]

Since central Texas has no chance of seeing any wintry precip from this system, I just hope SA and Austin receive at least .10 inch of rain from it. This month has been way too dry here. Any rain along this front will help to lower our fire weather threat tomorrow.

[weatherdude1108]

Since central Texas has no chance of seeing any wintry precip from this system, I just hope SA and Austin receive at least .10 inch of rain from it. This month has been way too dry here. Any rain along this front will help to lower our fire weather threat tomorrow.

No kidding! It's SERIOUSLY DRY out there.
These "Red Flag Warnings" are the "salt on an open wound."

[vbhoutex]

Since central Texas has no chance of seeing any wintry precip from this system, I just hope SA and Austin receive at least .10 inch of rain from it. This month has been way too dry here. Any rain along this front will help to lower our fire weather threat tomorrow.

No kidding! It's SERIOUSLY DRY out there.
These "Red Flag Warnings" are the "salt on an open wound."

Ditto on that. We have had less than 2" of rain this month at my house along with like amount or less last month. WE NEED RAIN!!! Hate the fire weather warnings already starting this early in the year!!

[GaryHughes]

Based on what I'm seeing from the morning model runs and NWSFO discussions, I think anyone in the northern portion of the South Plains of Texas into the entire Panhandle is going to have some BIG winter fun tomorrow! Blizzard or near blizzard conditions. My son is a freshman at Tech and, growing up in Austin, will have never seen the kind of weather he's going to see late tonight into tomorrow in Lubbock. I'm excited for him ... and jealous!

Meanwhile, I still am sticking with my thought that folks in the northern parts of the Metroplex may see some flurries or sleet before all is said and done with this system. I will not let wxman57 and his evil, heat-loving hoodoo powers sway me from this forecast!

Lubbock has been added to the Blizzard Warning, he will definitely get to see it now!

[Jarodm12]

Out of lubbock NWS discussion thought this was interesting for us in north texas cant wait for 00z guidance bet you we are in for a surprise

000
FXUS64 KLUB 242343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.AVIATION...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHOSE FCST TRACK CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SWD SET TO IMPACT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
CONDITIONS TO PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL ISSUE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AT BOTH SITES BY 02Z. NORTH WINDS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE NIGHT...PEAKING MONDAY AT
AROUND 35G50KTS. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
ONSET AROUND OR A BIT AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

[Rgv20]

Looks like its going to be a very windy Monday in the RGV!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
150 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
WILL BRING A STRONG BUT RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

TXZ248>250-252-253-250400-
/O.CAN.KBRO.WI.Y.0009.130225T1500Z-130226T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.HW.A.0001.130225T1500Z-130226T0200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO
150 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

* TIMING...THESE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT...HIGH PROFILE AND OTHER VEHICLES WILL DE DIFFICULT TO
DRIVE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS
WILL BE EASILY MOVED AND POSSIBLY DAMAGED BY THE STRONG WINDS.
ANYONE WORKING ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...SUCH AS ON ROOFS OR
LADDERS...WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING BALANCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER...
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Weather Advisory for Wichita county

[GaryHughes]

Winter Weather Advisory for Wichita county

Wouldn't be surprised to see that change if this storm keeps dropping South!

[Jarodm12]

strange the 00z nam and rap drop it much further south and then rapidly north east making the path the same over north texas as old runs.

[Portastorm]

I would have to concur with hriverajr ... after staring at water vapor loops for the last five minutes, I believe the 500mb low in New Mexico has dipped about as far south as its going to. I would expect a due east track now into Texas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-wv.html

[hriverajr]

I am using simuawips.com Do you use this portastorm?, great for trends and nowcasting. Model support a bit meh.

[hriverajr]

[quote="Portastorm"]I would have to concur with hriverajr ... after staring at water vapor loops for the last five minutes, I believe the 500mb low in New Mexico has dipped about as far south as its going to. I would expect a due east track now into Texas.



110 kt + Jetstreak now rounding the base of the upper low. Perhaps just a smidgen farther south, making the east turn now.

[Portastorm]

I am using simuawips.com Do you use this portastorm?, great for trends and nowcasting. Model support a bit meh.

No, I don't but that looks interesting. I use a variety of sites for satellite views from NASA to NOAA to IPS Meteostar to the College of Dupage's Next Generation Weather Lab. An AWIPS-like system for free, eh? I may check that out. Thanks.

Looks like you (Del Rio) and me (Austin) are in once again for a dry fropa. What else is new?!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Weather Advisory for Wichita county

Wouldn't be surprised to see that change if this storm keeps dropping South!

Hopefully for the better!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

RyanMaue: 10-day ECMWF forecast had a 1060 mb high over Canadian Arctic & 2nd front blasting thru CONUS ... 16-day EPS control is very cold as well.

[South Texas Storms]

I am using simuawips.com Do you use this portastorm?, great for trends and nowcasting. Model support a bit meh.

No, I don't but that looks interesting. I use a variety of sites for satellite views from NASA to NOAA to IPS Meteostar to the College of Dupage's Next Generation Weather Lab. An AWIPS-like system for free, eh? I may check that out. Thanks.

Looks like you (Del Rio) and me (Austin) are in once again for a dry fropa. What else is new?!

I think SA and Austin will see a skinny line of thunderstorms late tonight. The TTU WRF model does pretty well in the short range and it has been consistently showing a thin line of storms moving through our area around 5 am tomorrow morning.
http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_ti ... _dbz&run=0

[hriverajr]

Portastorm,

Have you tried weatherscope? Good for displaying multiple radar sites, and different products.

[hriverajr]

Portastorm.. Line of thunderstorms headed in your general direction. No guarantees

[SouthernMet]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nty024.gif
6z Nam has wrap around precip @ DFW, northern four rows of counties covered with light precip. Imo that is the only oppurtunity for winter weather in this event so watch for the wrap around when the low passes to the north. Otherwise Oklahoma & Texas panhandle blizzard conditions this afternoon & tonight

[SouthernMet]

DFW NWSFO

LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS THE ECMWF AND CMC /CANADIAN/
CONTINUE TO BE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. WHILE THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH.
HAVE SHOWN A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...HAVE PLACED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF
COUNTIES...AND JUST RAIN SOUTH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER MAINLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.