ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Last night when I was watching him, he was moving 14 mph for 6 hours (0.20 long/hr)(faster than fcast) and I was starting to get a little more concerned for the stall happening further west and thus maybe put FL back in danger. However, the really good news is that he has slowed considerably since and has moved only .13 long/hr the last 3 hours/9 mph). The slower it moves, the further east will be the expected stall and the less threat to FL.
Another thing to note is that the stall, even with it near the Gulf stream, may still cool the SSTs enough to weaken him. Keep in mind that cooling from churning is not just around the center. At some point, the overall SSTs in and near the storm cooling should help weaken him some while stalled. Then once he starts moving again, he may restrengthen some. My guess is that the peak strength will be today or tomorrow. The NHC prog sort of reflects this.

[craptacular]

The AF recon plane is making it really easy for us to do math.

1st center fix at 11:56:40z (25.86N 72.91W)
3rd center fix at 14:56:40z (25.93N 73.39W)

26.2549nmi in 3 hours = 8.75 kts at 279.21 degrees

[jlauderdal]

Broward County mayor saying that while it appears at this moment it’s heading north, don’t let your guard down..brought up Irma how it was supposed to head up the east coast or up the spine and instead went west of us. Saying to still prepare because things can change

That seems wise compared to.local media that just want to make everything about good news instead of the facts

[chaser1]

One of the NHC Facebook Lives yesterday made a cool point. Lixion Avila made a point about them not wanting people to get "fatigued" with the storm. Prepare, be prepared, but don't wear yourself out/oversaturate yourself now, before potential watches are out. It was a cool point in an interesting area of meteorology--the psychology of forecasting--how you get people to act in a way that protects life and limb. Sure, it's science, but it's also human behavior. Very interesting to watch the best in the world at the NHC play that out.

That's a great post and reflects a really well learned perspective by Lixion who I used to enjoy chatting with years ago. Bottom line is when you've watched, tracked and forecasted these storms long enough, you come to the realization that many factors evolve and change 3, 4, and 5 days out. Like watching a boxing match and seeing how each boxer is "up", then fading, then "down", then "back up" again LOL, the result is an ongoing rise and fall of emotion, anxiety and anticipation. That is why there's different levels of preparation for a hurricane and why there's a time for buying supplies, a time for planning boarding up and cleaning the yard of loose items, and a time for logistics of decision and actions that relate to work, children, school/day care, and "bugging out"/evacuation. By and large, a lot of what people need to do is have an overall plan and then to simply WAIT AND WATCH.

On a related note, I'm here in Central Florida and couldn't help from laughing while watching the MANY home-owners having their lawns mowed "in preparation for the storm". I''m not making this up because I asked a couple neighbors as well as my own lawn maintenance guy For the life of me, I can't see the benefit of having a groomed lawn in the event that trees, my neighbors debris, and roofing material end up littered all over it following a hurricane impact. Just seems like some way of coping with nervous energy I guess LOL.

West Boca Raton resident here: We are instinctively learning this lesson today We do not watch any media regarding the hurricane. The NHC and this forum help us prepare well enough! That being said, after burning ourselves out yesterday afternoon preparing (read: cleaning it and playing tetris with all the stuff in there lol) the garage to take in the patio and yard furniture, tools, etc, this morning it was an amazing sense of relief to know we are able to "wait and see" without stress, instead of waking up very early to board up the gliding doors and bring the very heavy yard furniture in. We have everything ready, and the rest of the house is protected as we have impact windows, but we can take a little break, and are very grateful for it. I maintain faith this will stay OTS, but I am well aware serious players in the modelling world (all pun intended) of hurricane tracking are still saying "hold my beer".
Edited to add: one of my friends was mowing the lawn yesterday as well LOL. I think there's a little bit of sense in that - it may take weeks until we'd be able to do it again, should the worst come to happen, and, with much rain and humidity, it'd be very difficult to cut afterwards. But... what to do with the clippings?! There's no waste disposal until it were to strike - if it did.
And another funny prep I saw yesterday: one of my neighbors was thoroughly washing her car

Excellent point. Meanwhile it'll be beer-thirty here shortly (unless/until) things change....... and they always can. Sometimes the best thing one can do is to remove themselves from the back 'n forth drama that each couple hours of data and information overload can bring.

[Ian2401]

dorians eye has trochiodally wobbled a lot in the past few hours. maybe some structural changes going on?

[CFLHurricane]

dorians eye has trochiodally wobbled a lot in the past few hours. maybe some structural changes going on?

Yes, he’s intensifying.

[toad strangler]

So friends of mine ran into Cantore in Stuart, FL. He is leaving and believes the FL E Coast will not see and landfall. This is what he told my friends. Took pics and all that jazz

[Hurricane Andrew]

He's crossed 26N looking at satellite.

[eastcoastFL]

Philippe Papin
@pppapin
I'm watching #Dorian today if it begins to move due W or even has a S component of motion.

The last few #ECMWF ensemble cycles continue slowing down Dorian's trk, w/ an increasing # of members showing a SW motion in the Bahamas.

A direct Florida landfall is still very possible.

[Ian2401]

He's crossed 26N looking at satellite.

thinks its just a wobble. its been wobbling north and south for a good bit but if you look at the long term track since last night its heading pretty much due W.

back to wobble watching season boys

[NFLnut]

Apparently so; well, at least one taking the effort to ease the anxiety of waiting and watching seems more productive then just watching and becoming more alarmed or anxious while sitting and staring at the satellite. I can see your point of having to mow a week higher/deeper lawn if it were that high a week or two from now. I guess I found it comical given the many other more relavent things I either had to do or help others with. Cutting the grass just wasn't in my "top 20" list.

I live pretty close to you. I'm fairly obsessive about my Empire Zoysia, but I skipped the weekly mowing, etc this week. Just figured I had more to do when we were forecast for at least Cat 1/2 winds and knew that I would have to clean up all of the leaves and palm trash and limbs scattered everywhere. Although mowing 2 weeks worth of growth will be a b#@*)h!

[NFLnut]

Crossed 26N, so movement is slightly north of west as forecast.

[Patrick99]

Broward County mayor saying that while it appears at this moment it’s heading north, don’t let your guard down..brought up Irma how it was supposed to head up the east coast or up the spine and instead went west of us. Saying to still prepare because things can change

That seems wise compared to.local media that just want to make everything about good news instead of the facts

It’s funny, there was a time years ago when they wanted to make everything about bad news. These days they seem to want to go 180 degrees in the other direction! This isn’t quite over.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Intense hurricanes do not move in a straight line; the exact center gyrates around. Focus instead on 2-4 hour trends in position.

[Blown Away]

dorians eye has trochiodally wobbled a lot in the past few hours. maybe some structural changes going on?

No I think it's just bouncing up/down off the bottom of the high pressure to it's north.

[Ian2401]

Intense hurricanes do not move in a straight line; the exact center gyrates around. Focus instead on 2-4 hour trends in position.

which has been pretty much due W since around midnight

[Yellow Evan]

dorians eye has trochiodally wobbled a lot in the past few hours. maybe some structural changes going on?

No I think it's just bouncing up/down off the bottom of the high pressure to it's north.

I think it's about to start an ERC so more wobbles than usual is to be expected.

[KWT]

Crossed 26N, so movement is slightly north of west as forecast.

Yeah its been between 275-280 for the last 6hrs now, and stair stepping its way along.

Its going to have to gain more northerly motion soon it if its not going to make landfall/direct hit on Abaco Island.

[GCANE]

[sponger]

Interesting to note the GFS did not have this West movement although the Euro sure did.