Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

Cool breath of a cold front yesterday with drop in humidity and cooler breeze from north. Made sun shine hotter though so effect was mild.

Shuttle launch today. Even though it is 200 miles from my house you can see the shuttle take off like an orange flare.

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

Water temps really starting to heat up...esp on Gulf coast

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

WIth dewpoints in extreme south FL rising and staying above 70F - (at least for the past 3 days that I can see on NOAA's history) - and when I also checked on Friday, the dewpoints were flirting with 70 for the prior 3 days as well - One has to think that rainy season must be close at hand. The past 3 days have been NOTICEABLY muggy and yucky outside, last weekend was breathtaking it was so nice, this past one, not so much, just hot and sticky.

Boy do we ever need it. I'm watching every day - and I think when that first torrential downpour happens I'll run outside and dance! (then promptly die from a direct lightning hit LOL).

[gatorcane]

WIth dewpoints in extreme south FL rising and staying above 70F - (at least for the past 3 days that I can see on NOAA's history) - and when I also checked on Friday, the dewpoints were flirting with 70 for the prior 3 days as well - One has to think that rainy season must be close at hand. The past 3 days have been NOTICEABLY muggy and yucky outside, last weekend was breathtaking it was so nice, this past one, not so much, just hot and sticky.

Boy do we ever need it. I'm watching every day - and I think when that first torrential downpour happens I'll run outside and dance! (then promptly die from a direct lightning hit LOL).

Muggy conditions were due to a weaker ridge across Southern FL allowing for seabreeze development in the afternoon.

The current weak high is moving off to the east in response to a backdoor cold front dropping down through the Carolinas. This cold front will fizzle over Northern FL. A much stronger high is going to build in around the Wed.-Thurs timeframe and you will notice increasing E winds gusting to 20-25mph all the way through the weekend.

With such a deep easterly flow expect two noticeable differences from the High we have been seeing and this High:

1) The flow will be much deeper which will allow patches of showers to stream from the Gulf Stream. It wouldn't surprise me if see an overnight shower or two across East Coast Metro areas of Southern FL

2) The temperatures will be cooler due to more deep easterly flow and more cloud coverage. Expect high all along the SE Coast of FL to not get above 90F with 90s only well inland (at least 25 miles inland).

[gatorcane]

Interesting snippet from Tampa weather office. This translates to the start of the rainy season...maybe

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH...REACHING 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE
ARE FINALLY SEEING SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS JUST BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A HINT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE EAST. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD FINALLY BE LOOKING AT
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS. KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/getprodvers ... &version=1

Looks like the 12Z GFS is developing some kind of weak low in the Eastern GOM and shunting it ENE head of a frontal boundary.

If this verifies, it would bring alot of much needed rain to the entire peninsula of FL. Even so, the GFS is suggesting that the long-wave patten is going to change in about 7 days or so, with a large trough along the Eastern CONUS. That will bring much need rain to FL and should commence the start of the rainy season.

Personally I think the rainy season is going to kick-off with a vengeance by about mid week next week (Southern FL).

[NDG]

Getting there, the NAM was not off by that much.

[NDG]

Euro agrees also with a troughiness pattern for early next week, that would be awesome!!!

[JonathanBelles]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN SC...SERN GA...ERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111946Z - 112045Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXISTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN AND SRN FL PENINSULA...AND
EXTREME SRN SC INTO SERN GA. THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WW.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE
WRN AND ERN FL PENINSULA...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL REGION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXISTS OVER SERN
GA INTO EXTREME SRN SC ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION TAKING PLACE WITHIN THESE CONVERGENCE ZONES...MAINLY
ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S DEWPOINTS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
THROUGH THE 80S IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH RUC MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND STORM SCALE OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS. DUE TO THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER
LAYED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR...LARGE THETA-E
DIFFERENCE /AOA 30 K/ WILL EXIST...FAVORING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
CORES.

[NDG]

[jinftl]

The panhandle, which had been wet, has seen a steady drying trend as of late, increasing the kbdi indices. Conditions on the peninsula remain extreme.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami certainly not indicating that the rainy season is commencing....in fact, they forecast drier conditions in the extended forecast

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SMALL WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA... THAT WEAKNESS IS MORE OF A
WEAK THERMAL LOW. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
THE LAST FEW DAYS, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS ERODING WHILE A FEW
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE IN. TUESDAY THE MID AND SURFACE LEVEL
RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DEMISE AS A TROUGH CUTS INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASE TSRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE
INTERIOR, BUT NOT MUCH FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF S FL OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERIOR SUBURBS OF THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE THE EAST FLOW AND ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE INTO MOVE INTO S FL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA WILL OCCUR,
BUT THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
TEMPS STAYING AROUND 90 AND NOT 100. THIS WEEKEND THE RIDGE DRIFTS
FARTHER SOUTH WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS WHICH WILL
DECREASE THE CHANCE OF POPS ONCE AGAIN.

Some stats by location:

Miami:
Rainfall from May 1 - May 11, 2009: 0" (-1.54" below normal)
Rainfall from 1/1/09 - 5/11/09: 3.41" (-8.00" below normal)
Rainfall from 11/1/08 - 5/11/09: 4.66" (-12.36" below normal)

Fort Lauderdale:
Rainfall from May 1 - May 11, 2009: Trace (-1.77" below normal)
Rainfall from 1/1/09 - 5/11/09: 4.02" (-10.10" below normal)
Rainfall from 11/1/08 - 5/11/09: 4.74" (-16.60" below normal)

West Palm Beach:
Rainfall from May 1 - May 11, 2009: 0" (-1.59" below normal)
Rainfall from 1/1/09 - 5/11/09: 4.14" (-11.00" below normal)
Rainfall from 11/1/08 - 5/11/09: 6.79" (-17.04" below normal)

[NDG]

Miami NWS office's forecast is only going out into the weekend, which true, the ridge will build back in by the end of the week into the weekend but with a continue chance of isolated afternoon storms shifting to the FL west coast. Beginning early next week could be another story if the models keep up their current runs.

[HURAKAN]

Something new!

[Sanibel]

You could see the cut-off thunderheads to the east on that seabreeze convergence over the Glades. Rainy season starting to work up.

[NDG]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 120624
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
224 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (POPS 20-30%)...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE LIKELY TO SET UP OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RATHER COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS
MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
POSSIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION A WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN SUPPORT VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WILL HIT ON THESE HAZARDS IN THE HWO LATER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT AS PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND.

LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WILL DIE OFF BY
MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

ON WEDNESDAY REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS (POPS ~40%) ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY MARCHES
WEST AND COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY. LIKE TODAY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY AGAIN SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH
HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAYS WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST
AND LOWER 90S INLAND.

ON THURSDAY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING (PW`S LOWERING TO ~1.5") IN
FROM THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOME WITH MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW AGAIN FAVORING HIGHEST POPS ~30% OVER COASTAL ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POPS ~20%
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN OUR EASTERLY FLOW. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 750 MB AND 400 MB DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY HELP TO LIMIT AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL MOVE THE ACTIVITY TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZES
PINNED TO THE GULF COAST...WHICH WITH ANY LUCK...WILL ALLOW SOME
COASTAL AREAS TO RECEIVE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY INVADES THE
EAST. BY MONDAY...A DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGH IS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
AND REALLY GETS IN HERE BY MONDAY. OF COURSE...THIS IS ALL OUT THERE
IN DAY 6 AND 7...SO A LOT CAN CHANGE BY THEN...BUT THE GFS HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF WHICH ALSO BRINGS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA BY MONDAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...
THIS COULD WELL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN QUITE SOME
TIME. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THE UPPER-LOW CUTTING OFF
OVER THE GULF...BUT STILL HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

[Sanibel]

Dry as sticks here we could use that rain event Monday.

[gatorcane]

The low is back again in the 12Z GFS now only 7 days out. This would be a true blessing for those in FL with all of that rainfall.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

You could see the cut-off thunderheads to the east on that seabreeze convergence over the Glades. Rainy season starting to work up.

I could see them late as clear as a bell (but from the east) in coral springs/margate - I was quite proud that I ID'd the clouds as convective due to SB convergence, but far too sheared to actually produce a thunderstorm.

[JonathanBelles]

Best looking cloud ive seen in a very long time just a few blocks to my NW.

Edit: I've got thunder!