ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Evil Jeremy]

The stronger she get the more to the north she will go? Is that right? And by the looks right now not going to be weak long. But then again there was Dean and went west

The strong = north formula does not always apply, but I think it will with Fay. I don't think it works alot with storms close to the equator, like Dean and some of the storms last year. That is my unprofessional thought.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

I think this is as close as you will get to radar from Haiti.

FYI...That is Cuba

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

So much for Disruption...

[AJC3]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

I think this is as close as you will get to radar from Haiti.

There's one at Gitmo too.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lit ... R&loop=yes

D'oh!...old radar data (June 10)

[Noles2006]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

So much for Disruption...

She's not over the big mountains yet...

[canejacket]

Hmm, to me it does look like it's getting affected a by the mountains.

[RL3AO]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

So much for Disruption...

The mountains are in western DR.

[Pearl River]

SouthFLTropics wrote:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

I know. Aric asked if there was radar from Haiti. There is no long range from Gitmo and the radar at Gitmo is air tarffic control radar, not very good for weather.

[robbielyn]

if this goes over land the whole way, how can it not get ripped up by hispaniola and then cuba? It would have to stay to the south over water but I think it will stay acrossed land. and then we may not have to worry about this whole thing.

[Praxus]

I would imagine that heading north and west of florida would be the worst situation as it would offer lots more time over water for possible intensification before hammering the gulf coast somewhere.

Really looking forward to the 00Z models.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

if this goes over land the whole way, how can it not get ripped up by hispaniola and then cuba?

In all likelihood it will. However as this is a newly formed storm - it hasn't gotten its act together yet - thus there is no "organization" to disrupt! In fact the mountains of Hispaniola may actually enhance convection by providing lift (orographic). However this is not likely to help for very long.

[Patrick99]

If the NHC forecast track is absolutely correct, Fay has chosen a tough path for herself, wanting to tour the land masses of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Florida with minimal time over water. On that track, looks like a rain event, and nothing more.....but for the WHOLE FL peninsula.

Of course, it could take a few little jogs here and there and give it enough time over water to turn into a hurricane.

Most likely, Greater Antilles save Florida again from what would probably be a major hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

People, it's too early to say what could happen to Florida. Fay could easily stay south of the track, more water to travel, or in a more northern track, more land to travel. Fay's LLC could easily dissipate over the mountains and develop over the southern side of Hispaniola. There are a lot of things that may happen between now and Wednesday.

[JPmia]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

So much for Disruption...

The mountains are in western DR.

Well the highest mountains are in the center of the island on the DR side of the border...maybe she will go through that valley heading just north of west? Didn't Jeanne go right through there? Thanks for posting the map. Eventually we will need one for Eastern Cuba....or maybe not?

[MiamiensisWx]

In all likelihood it will. However as this is a newly formed storm - it hasn't gotten its act together yet - thus there is no "organization" to disrupt! In fact the mountains of Hispaniola may actually enhance convection by providing lift (orographic). However this is not likely to help for very long.

Actually, if it crosses the mountainous regions of Hispaniola and Cuba, it would likely not dissipate. I believe Cuba features much lower elevations along the coasts and western half of the island, and the highest peaks are lower than those on Hispaniola. As you said, since the TC will not have an inner core along the path, it will almost certainly not dissipate because of interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba. Center relocations and the movement of the current LLC will be very important over the next 24-48 hours. If the center reforms farther east and north, a track farther east would be probable. However, if the current LLC persists, a track farther west over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico would be reasonable.

[TheShrimper]

If some of you old poster's remember, a couple of days before Charley clobbered us here on Pine Island, I returned home from work and found my Basset Hound standing on his head. Today when I got home, take one guess what he was doing?

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

So much for Disruption...

The mountains are in western DR.

Well the highest mountains are in the center of the island on the DR side of the border...maybe she will go through that valley heading just north of west? Didn't Jeanne go right through there? Thanks for posting the map. Eventually we will need one for Eastern Cuba....or maybe not?

if that happened she'd miss cuba and i don't see that happening

[MiamiensisWx]

Very few TCs dissipated over Hispaniola solely because of land interaction... remember that Debby 2000 encountered shear from a TUTT prior to moving WSW into Hispaniola, so it was weakening prior to landfall. Even TCs with well defined inner cores (such as Emily 1987 and David 1979) still survived after passing over Hispaniola. Unlike Debby, there is very little shear over Fay, and that trend will continue throughout the next 24-48 hours. This TC will almost certainly NOT die... mark my words. Everyone from southern Florida to the eastern Gulf of Mexico coastal regions should watch Fay. A track farther west would mean more time over a larger aereal extent of water than a track farther east.

[HURAKAN]

Highest peaks

Hispaniola: Pico Duarte - 3,098 metres (10,164 feet)
Cuba: Pico Turquino - 1,974 m (6,476 ft)

[AdamFirst]

Sorry for my newbie questions...

are systems like these able to "bounce" off these mountainous areas? I heard someone talking about that like 20 pages ago last night or something.