ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[caneseddy]

Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast

[Aric Dunn]

recon may have found the center relocated south a good deal away from the last fix...

[SouthFloridawx]

You can see it's definitely disorganized in the SW quad. As Aric said, could be trying to reform in the area to the south.



If you look at MIMIC you can see where that may be happening in the near future.

[northjaxpro]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

['CaneFreak]

right..but remember, the nam is not a tropical model...we are just using it to look at the synoptics

Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast

[jonj2040]

I think tis is what you were referring to?


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[SFLcane]

I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.

[SouthFloridawx]

It may take Emily more time to really start getting organized.

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

seems most likely that she will not go north of hispanola. at this point anyway

[caneseddy]

right..but remember, the nam is not a tropical model...we are just using it to look at the synoptics

Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast

Of course, I don't follow what the NAM depicts....but it is indicating a trough that is pulling towards north of the islands, which then seems to lift out

[Aric Dunn]

grrr.. with all the missing data.. no pressure readings nothing.. thanks for the zoom

[Bocadude85]

I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.

I agree. Think we will see a slight shift East.. though I wouldnt be shocked to see the track shift east and west the next few days until the models get a better idea on what Emily will do/

[KWT]

I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.

Think the models are pretty close to the likely solution now...maybe a little either side of course but broadly I don't think the models will shift all that much from now unless the initial motion keeps tracking away from where ther models prog.

[Aric Dunn]

right..but remember, the nam is not a tropical model...we are just using it to look at the synoptics

Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast

Of course, I don't follow what the NAM depicts....but it is indicating a trough that is pulling towards north of the islands, which then seems to lift out

actually if you compare to the last few runs of the NAM this run the trough is lifting faster than even last night. and ridging building in ...

[jonj2040]

27


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[SouthDadeFish]

Looks can be deceiving:

[northjaxpro]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

seems most likely that she will not go north of hispanola. at this point anyway

Nope. I noticed last night that ridge was a bit stronger and with Emily still in an organizational phase, it would go farther west. So, at this point, I don't foresee the cyclone going north of Hispaniola, unless she pulls a major surprise by slowing down to a crawl now and make the turn northwest sooner than anticipated.

[Mouton]

I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.

Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.

So far it is following the Canadian model very closely....all week. Their path is along the Fla West coast and across the state exiting around Jax in five days.

IMO, were it to avoid any of the mountains of Hispanola and/or Cuba, the intensity will have to be increased substantially as that entire area is pretty conducive to growth. Charlie of 04 comes to mind now.

[Evil Jeremy]

I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.

I agree. Think we will see a slight shift East.. though I wouldnt be shocked to see the track shift east and west the next few days until the models get a better idea on what Emily will do/

Given the 06z models only moved very slightly East overall, mixed with Emily's continued west movement and now uncertain center placement, I think they will hold the current cone. Consistency might be best right now with all the uncertainty.

[caneseddy]

I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.

Think the models are pretty close to the likely solution now...maybe a little either side of course but broadly I don't think the models will shift all that much from now unless the initial motion keeps tracking away from where ther models prog.

I agree....there will be a turn to the north, but how far west or east will it be? That is the question for Florida, Gulf Coast, and the East Coast