Texas Winter 2021-2022

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z GFS Meteogram for the big airport


https://i.ibb.co/7tjqvCr/202202011200-ZGFS240-DFW.png

Almost no liquid precip, the onset is practically frozen from the beginning. Hopefully the transition to sleet is quick

[cstrunk]

12z GFS ups the freezing rain accumulation to 0.30" in Longview... up from 0.19" on the 06z GFS run.

Still inching closer to an ice storm in Longview... this is going to be very close.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS Meteogram for the big airport


https://i.ibb.co/7tjqvCr/202202011200-ZGFS240-DFW.png

Almost no liquid precip, the onset is practically frozen from the beginning. Hopefully the transition to sleet is quick

Hopefully it does or this could rival Jan 1979 Ice Storm. I bet FW NWS office will expand their >0.25" ice down into the Metroplex during this afternoons Winter Storm Warning Issuance

Just an insane amount of QPF with these temp profiles

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS Meteogram for the big airport


https://i.ibb.co/7tjqvCr/202202011200-ZGFS240-DFW.png

Almost no liquid precip, the onset is practically frozen from the beginning. Hopefully the transition to sleet is quick

Hopefully it does or this could rival Jan 1979 Ice Storm. I bet FW NWS office will expand their >0.25" ice down into the Metroplex during this afternoons Winter Storm Warning Issuance

Just an insane amount of QPF with these temp profiles

Probably warrants Ice storm warning for some where there is less mixing with sleet.

[LearnedHat]

12Z GFS Meteogram for the big airport


https://i.ibb.co/7tjqvCr/202202011200-ZGFS240-DFW.png

Almost no liquid precip, the onset is practically frozen from the beginning. Hopefully the transition to sleet is quick

Hopefully it does or this could rival Jan 1979 Ice Storm. I bet FW NWS office will expand their >0.25" ice down into the Metroplex during this afternoons Winter Storm Warning Issuance

Just an insane amount of QPF with these temp profiles

Never heard Paul Simon’s Slip Slidin’ Away as much as it was played during that storm.

[EnnisTx]

Looks like front is through Childress

Fair

52°F

11°C

Humidity 37%
Wind Speed NW 13 G 21 mph
Barometer 29.80 in (1008.5 mb)
Dewpoint 26°F (-3°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)
Last update 1 Feb 11:53 am CST

[Ntxw]

Looks like some moderate snow late morning into early afternoon again on the Euro (after the icing) for the metroplex. 1-3" 10:1 ratio but temps are really cold so probably 2-4." Might see a 4-6 total somewhere with a heavy band.

[wxman57]

Here's a Houston meteogram (north Houston). Quite a change from a high in the low 70s tomorrow to a high in the lower 30s Thursday. Rain stops prior to the temperature hitting freezing here. There is a tiny "blip" of precip between 6am to 12pm Friday. Quite a warm nose aloft would indicate sleet is most likely. Not much, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

[Ntxw]

Here's a Houston meteogram (north Houston). Quite a change from a high in the low 70s tomorrow to a high in the lower 30s Thursday. Rain stops prior to the temperature hitting freezing here. There is a tiny "blip" of precip between 6am to 12pm Friday. Quite a warm nose aloft would indicate sleet is most likely. Not much, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

Where is the 80 degree dashed line?

[gboudx]

DFW NWS has a timeline graphic where they show ice starting around 6pm in the metroplex. The metroplex is massive so I guess we assume the 6pm time is the northwest part of the CWA. Any signs of the timing becoming earlier than their graphic shows? Just wondering how close it may get to a very messy rush hour and school day ending.

[wxman57]

The 80F dashed line is hiding - it's too cold for it to show its face. Meanwhile, here's an 18Z surface analysis. See what I mean about the post-frontal temps? It's 44 in Amarillo and upper 20s in Nebraska. It's 52F in Childress along the front and 42F in northern Kansas. Definitely now a "blue norther". Cold air will gradually deepen with time behind the front. Don't expect a rapid 30-40 degree plunge as the front moves through today/tonight. There will be more of a gradient by tomorrow.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZSFC.JPG

[bevolon]

What is the next big run to watch as we get closer to the time frame for this storm?
Thanks in advance.

[Cerlin]

Here comes the first front! (Using some Mesonet Tools)

[EnnisTx]

Here's a Houston meteogram (north Houston). Quite a change from a high in the low 70s tomorrow to a high in the lower 30s Thursday. Rain stops prior to the temperature hitting freezing here. There is a tiny "blip" of precip between 6am to 12pm Friday. Quite a warm nose aloft would indicate sleet is most likely. Not much, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

Where is the 80 degree dashed line?

The only way he sees 80 near a dashed line is if he draws one on the wall next to his thermostat..

[wxman57]

Here's a Houston meteogram (north Houston). Quite a change from a high in the low 70s tomorrow to a high in the lower 30s Thursday. Rain stops prior to the temperature hitting freezing here. There is a tiny "blip" of precip between 6am to 12pm Friday. Quite a warm nose aloft would indicate sleet is most likely. Not much, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

Where is the 80 degree dashed line?

There, I added it.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAH12ZGFS.JPG

[wxman57]

What is the next big run to watch as we get closer to the time frame for this storm?
Thanks in advance.

I'd say 12Z tomorrow, maybe 00Z Thursday (tomorrow evening). Models should have a pretty good handle on it by then.

[rwfromkansas]

Made a Meteogram for my closest airport, FW Alliance. It gets me down to below freezing around 8 p.m. on the 12Z GFS. Then, maybe cold enough for snow by 9 a.m. the next morning if heavy sleet. May be pushing it, but if it can happen, could see a quick 2-3 inches of snow at the end. Looks like the 540 line delays that a bit, so maybe only an inch or so without that. Oh, and I get down to 9 degrees Saturday morning. Brrr.

[Texas Snow]

What is the next big run to watch as we get closer to the time frame for this storm?
Thanks in advance.

The real one everyone's is waiting for are the 0Z's which start around 9 and end just after midnight depending on the specific model. It should have actual air sampling from west coast on that one. The 18z is just cocktail hour.

[cheezyWXguy]

What is the next big run to watch as we get closer to the time frame for this storm?
Thanks in advance.

Probably the 18z nam which runs around 230, followed by the icon which starts shortly after

[Iceresistance]

4,500 Posts!

I don't think that we got there until Mid-February last year.