Texas Winter 2025-2026

Winter Weather Discussion

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bigddstranny
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4481 Postby bigddstranny » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:00 pm

Just walked the dog. It's only 47, but it's nasty with the wind and drizzle.

Great Pyrenees/lab mix was loving it.
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Gotwood
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4482 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:01 pm

Looks like I’m about to receive my first precipitation since falling below freezing. 30.4 degrees, I will report back when it hits.
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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4483 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:02 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Due to the speed of the front and freezing temperatures outpacing model guidance, NWS Austin/San Antonio just sped up the start times of the Winter Storm Warning by three hours.

Looks like the WRF-ARW is winning the meso model war.


A lot of folks on this board that I respect tout that model. I’m going to hug it from now on.

It does seem to do a good job with Arctic weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4484 Postby Quixotic » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:04 pm

Brent wrote:
Wthrfan wrote:15 degrees and 1/2 inch on the ground in Edmond! All snow! This is gonna be fun!


Yeah I've been a bit skeptical of the models extreme totals but they might happen at this point

I’m jelly. But I’m also happy for you.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4485 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:08 pm

Collin County is falling with most stations reporting 33 or 32F now.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4486 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:10 pm

Portastorm wrote:Due to the speed of the front and freezing temperatures outpacing model guidance, NWS Austin/San Antonio just sped up the start times of the Winter Storm Warning by three hours.

Looks like the WRF-ARW is winning the meso model war.


Yup. Noticed they went ahead and also added additional counties (Medina, Uvalde and Kinney) to the west of SA also. Makes sense as I think some of the models were having issues with precip depiction coming out of Mexico whereas the WRF models are handling that better.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4487 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:10 pm

Mid-Cities/NE Tarrant/DFW Airport still holding at 34/35 and have been for the last 4 hours or so
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4488 Postby Quixotic » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:11 pm

I’ve been here 9 years and am only a cat 3. I only show up for winter weather or high risk severe events which means only winter weather.

Anywho, this brings me to my next question: how in gods name did 2017-2018 Texas Winter come in at second to most posts in a Texas Winter thread when, if I recall correctly, nothing happened? I mean yeah, I could go back and read the thread but I know nothing of consequence happened that winter.
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4489 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:11 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Due to the speed of the front and freezing temperatures outpacing model guidance, NWS Austin/San Antonio just sped up the start times of the Winter Storm Warning by three hours.

Looks like the WRF-ARW is winning the meso model war.


A lot of folks on this board that I respect tout that model. I’m going to hug it from now on.


The AI models were the Global Champs, really impressive on temps for this event . They are evolving!!
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4490 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:13 pm

Uh well sticking is not gonna be a problem! :double:

Image
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4491 Postby Quixotic » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:14 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Mid-Cities/NE Tarrant/DFW Airport still holding at 34/35 and have been for the last 4 hours or so


Yep. Same here. I could jog to Denton where it’s snowing although it might take me a couple of hours. They’re reporting snow. Im reporting cold rain. Maybe ice chunks in it.
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Gotwood
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4492 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:14 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Due to the speed of the front and freezing temperatures outpacing model guidance, NWS Austin/San Antonio just sped up the start times of the Winter Storm Warning by three hours.

Looks like the WRF-ARW is winning the meso model war.


A lot of folks on this board that I respect tout that model. I’m going to hug it from now on.


The AI models were the Global Champs, really impressive on temps for this event . They are evolving!!

I decided to do CHAT GPT for the shadow effect and it gave me a run down on everything and what the models were showing and assured me a 90% chance I would be below freezing by 8pm I got to freezing at like 7:20pm. So Chat GTP did a good job lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4493 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:15 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Mid-Cities/NE Tarrant/DFW Airport still holding at 34/35 and have been for the last 4 hours or so

Dallas and Terrell are at the top of the expected cone of surface warmth. It should drop before having a significant affect on the event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4494 Postby Quixotic » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:17 pm

Brent wrote:Uh well sticking is not gonna be a problem! :double:

https://i.ibb.co/Xfyn75bn/IMG-20260123-220941131-HDR.jpg


Kinda digging the highlights on the light fixtures there. Pretty good focus IMO.
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Gotwood
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4495 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:18 pm

Well the current precipitation type IMBY is freezing rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4496 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:18 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Mid-Cities/NE Tarrant/DFW Airport still holding at 34/35 and have been for the last 4 hours or so

With the cold air out west gradually expanding east, and the other surge of cold air coming in from Texarkana, the i35 corridor will probably be the last place to drop below freezing in the immediate metro since that’s about where they’ll ultimately meet.
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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4497 Postby downsouthman1 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:18 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Mid-Cities/NE Tarrant/DFW Airport still holding at 34/35 and have been for the last 4 hours or so

Dallas and Terrell are at the top of the expected cone of surface warmth. It should drop before having a significant affect on the event.

The cold air is currently dammed on the NE side of DFW up to SE OK. Luckily it's also coming in from the NW & W by now FW is already 31.
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cstrunk
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4498 Postby cstrunk » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:20 pm

One thing that's really bumming me out is that my Tempest Weatherflow station has temperature and RH sensors that have failed. So I can't watch the temperature fall tenth by tenth...

Wunderground map shows a bunch of 33F and 32F readings around Longview. So we're getting close.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4499 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:20 pm

Crazy the difference. At 31.6 here. Has spiked a bit at times to 32. Probably need to drop a bit more to help pull further east down.
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Fifty Rock
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4500 Postby Fifty Rock » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:23 pm

24.7 degrees here with sleet covered ground, it’s nice and white outside.
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