Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

GFS is getting drier and drier for that "snow" east of us

Good

Yup! Let's hope the euro follows suit. Yipeee

[Brent]

Euro no snow at all this run Still a good snow to our east

[wxman57]

That "snow" on the 00Z map across parts of Texas appears to be falling from around 8000-10,000 ft up with surface temps in the low to mid 40s. Even on the positive snow depth chart below, surface temps are in the lower 40s. Still looks like less of an event across Texas than last Wednesday.

[Shoshana]

I’m making myself crazy checking in and seeing “Oh look! Blizzard next Wednesday!” At this point I’m feeling like the likelihood of Austin getting any sticking snow this winter is equal to the chance of a cat 5 in the Gulf, in February.....

But... I haven’t given up, I’m just not gonna check in 10 times a day lol

[weatherdude1108]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/JzTP9vW/292-FA62-F-F42-B-4-AB7-A445-B30-ABBCEDBD3.jpg [/url]

25F this morning. Globals are too warm in clear nights in winter after a front

Fyi also Bergstrom is in a bit of a valley so their night time temps dont represent Austin that accuately. A couple of miles away temps 10 degrees warmer

You're correct. However Mabry is always too warm with the urban heat effect and does not represent our lows for the general area correctly either IMO. Most of the area and suburban cities reached around 29F that morning. Mabry recorded 32F .

For some reason my spot showed a low of 36. and I'm in a low spot topographically. Granted my sensor is located just below the roof soffit, but gets exposed to the breezes and winds.

[bubba hotep]

00z models look to be in pretty good agreement on a boring weather pattern across a lot of Texas the next 7 to 10 days...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Heck of a bust. Forecasted low was 29, actual temp ended up being 22 with one of the heaviest frosts.

[bubba hotep]

Out beyond D10, GEFS and Euro EPS are in pretty good agreement that we will see a return of the STJ and wetter conditions across Texas.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like mid-February on is our last shot. Now the window is extremely narrow. If not lined up perfectly, it’s dead.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like mid-February on is our last shot. Now the window is extremely narrow. If not lined up perfectly, it’s dead.

Yep, for DFW there are stilll a few Euro EPS and SREF members that get snow into the area but that is grasping at straws. Then there is the warm up, we wait for mid-Feb, and the last 3 to 4 weeks of our winter wx window.

[hriverajr]

Yep looks like there will be a pattern change but to what? Models all over the place in long range of course. I'm starting to look for better rain chances for SW Texas if not will be a very hot summer for us. I have accepted the reality of the situation. Perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised and we might get a bit of winter, but it would be unexpected. You in Northern part of the state your winter weather chances can always extend later into the year of course.

[Portastorm]

Yep looks like there will be a pattern change but to what? Models all over the place in long range of course. I'm starting to look for better rain chances for SW Texas if not will be a very hot summer for us. I have accepted the reality of the situation. Perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised and we might get a bit of winter, but it would be unexpected. You in Northern part of the state your winter weather chances can always extend later into the year of course.

I’m right there with ya, my friend from Del Rio. Will take rain any time we can get it.

To think back in December many of us thought we were in for a legendary winter. So far it’s been a huge disappointment. Kinda reminds me of NYE social plans when I was younger ... so much hype and expectation seldom yielded an awesome night. Usually someone in the social circle got too drunk, someone fought with someone else, and you end up with a crappy night. LOL.

I’d say those of us south of Waco have 6 weeks left. Our friends north of there, as you said, have a few more weeks than we do.

[wxman57]

I’m making myself crazy checking in and seeing “Oh look! Blizzard next Wednesday!” At this point I’m feeling like the likelihood of Austin getting any sticking snow this winter is equal to the chance of a cat 5 in the Gulf, in February.....

But... I haven’t given up, I’m just not gonna check in 10 times a day lol

I'd say your chances are of getting sticking snow are closer to the chances of a Cat 5 in the Gulf in early June. Much better than in February, but not high.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I’m putting my faith in the local old men farmer forecast. Farmers have been pretty reliably predicting weather for hundreds of year before these silly models were around and in their words, “winter is far from over”.

[wxman57]

I’m putting my faith in the local old men farmer forecast. Farmers have been pretty reliably predicting weather for hundreds of year before these silly models were around and in their words, “winter is far from over”.

I agree, 54 more days until spring. Nothing significant across Texas over the next 10 days, though. Maybe after the first week of February.

[Brent]

what happened to the -PNA that was coming next week?

[Ntxw]

what happened to the -PNA that was coming next week?

Models are still showing it. It won't occur until the big TPV dump passes and alters the NAO. Then height falls along the west and rises in the east.

[dhweather]

Only 252 hours away!

[dhweather]

According to the GFS, the entire state of Minnesota will spend about five consecutive days below 0 next week.

[Haris]

'

Hmm. That'd be great. Fingers crossed! This boundary might make things interesting tonight