ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Stormi]

Ncentral FL here, less than 50 miles from the beach...I've been researching this for the last 12 hours, & there are FAR too many variables to call anyone in FL safe, or anyone in SC in total trouble. At least 2 High Pressure Systems & 2 Low Pressure Troughs are influencing the current track - timing of Dorian included. Dorian's speed & organization both appear to be exceeding expectations. Please stay vigilant & don't count anything out. Yesterday? models showed out to keys/gulf. Overnight/this morning same models, (to an extent) showed Spinal ala Irma. Now OTS/Coast-Hugger. We'll *Hopefully* know with certainty Saturday or Sunday morning.

[USTropics]

06z ICON has shifted east, coast hugger up to the Carolinas, looks like possible scrape at the end of run.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ensemble comparison:

[PandaCitrus]

06z GFS makes the turn north further east of Florida but then slams into South Carolina reminiscent of Hugo.

[BobHarlem]

The 6z GFS rides the coast from north of Charleston Wednesday morning/midday all the way to Hatteras and out by Friday, just inland much of the time. Legacy 6z landfalls in NC south of Wilmington Midday Wednesday and then rides the coast to Hatteras.

Sunday afternoon looks to be the nail biting day and is when the north turn is forecast by the GFS, if it doesn't turn the nail biting will continue. Florida is not in the clear yet, but looking slightly (and I mean slightly) better. It's going to be huge for the Bahamas.

[AJC3]

I'm going to throw this out here again...

While the model trends since yesterday afternoon are encouraging, please refrain from making posts that implies the threat to Florida is somehow much less serious that it continues to be.

1. The east coast of Florida remains very near the center of the cone.

2. Given the swings we're all seen in the model guidance over the past 2 days, I wouldn't feel confident about emphasizing one location over another along a large chunk of the SE US coast right now.

3. There has been no G4 data high altitude data that has gotten into the model guidance since the early morning runs on Friday. Yesterday afternoon's mission was re-tasked. Short term evolution of the forward motion, both speed and direction, could have a larger impact on just how close Dorian gets to the Florida east coast. Having G4 data initialized into the model guidance suite will allow for a better short-term resolution of the ridge to the N-NW.

Given the current situation, personally I'd like nothing more than to see another Matthew-type miss, even if we were to reap a lot of grief about the errors in the longer range forecasts. Are things more encouraging for the Florida east coast then they were 24 hours ago? Sure, somewhat. But like I posted yesterday, don't be overconfident. Refrain from intimating that the current 3-5 day track forecasts and model solutions are set in stone for anyone. Hubris is a fool's game, especially when it comes to TC forecasting. It will also get you a vacation from the board if your hubris leads you to post nonsense.

[OuterBanker]

Geeze, every model now brings Dorian right on top of us.
I think I'll go back to bed.

[NDG]

This S & W shift near and south of Grand Bahama Island by the latest Euro ensembles have to be watch, a more westward shift will mean that Dorian will be tracking much closer to FL when it eventually starts that NNW heading after getting to the northern Bahamas. I think that with Dorian we will have to go by the models within their 48 hr forecast from this point on.

[BobHarlem]

0z UKMet Ensembles:

Interesting to note the operational is on the far right.



6z GFS Ensembles are tightly clustered

[northjaxpro]

I'm going to throw this out here again...

While the model trends since yesterday afternoon are encouraging, please refrain from making posts that implies the threat to Florida is somehow much less serious that it continues to be.

1. The east coast of Florida remains very near the center of the cone.

2. Given the swings we're all seen in the model guidance over the past 2 days, I wouldn't feel confident about emphasizing one location over another along a large chunk of the SE US coast right now.

3. There has been no G4 data high altitude data that has gotten into the model guidance. Yesterday's mission was re-tasked. Short term evolution of the forward motion, both speed and direction, could have a larger impact on just how close Dorian gets to the Florida east coast.

Given the current situation, personally I'd like nothing more than to see another Matthew-type miss, even if we were to reap a lot of grief about the errors in the longer range forecasts. Are things more encouraging for the Florida east coast then they were 24 hours ago? Sure, somewhat. But like I posted yesterday, don't be overconfident. Refrain from intimating that the current 3-5 day track forecasts and model solutions are set in stone for anyone. Hubris is a fool's game, especially when it comes to TC forecasting. It will also get you a vacation from the board if your hubris leads you to post nonsense.

Very sage talking points to everyone. I could not have said this any better. AJC3 awesome words of advice here to tell everyone especially in Florida. We are still days out from la potential landfall and so much.can still change.

Florida Storm2K family: DO NOT LET YOUR GUARDS DOWN. PLEASE STAY VIGILANT!!!

[Nimbus]

Most of the 00Z models show a more favorable track for Florida.
They appear dependent on Dorian reaching a latitude north of 27 degrees N before 77 W.
That means Dorian needs to be north of 26 by 74W.

It appears that the early rapid intensification has changed the dynamic modeling in Floridas favor but we only have two runs.

The 06Z Saturday model run of the HWF continues the trend with Dorian reaching 27.7 N within the next 48 hours. Will be easy to verify.

[tgenius]

Hmon 6z recurved away just now too.

[Nimbus]

Geeze, every model now brings Dorian right on top of us.
I think I'll go back to bed.

I don't wish this on anyone but we sure don't need this right now. My son and his family just got moved into their house a couple of weeks ago from being flooded out from Florence. And there are so many others still out of their homes or needing repairs. I'm in Carteret County

Unfortunately the Carolinas are now in the cone and need to start early preps.
We have several days of runs so its still possible for a complete recurve but like Hugo Dorian is a monster. I think you will like the 06Z HWRF solution.

[Blown Away]

What did the 06z Euro show?

[Weatherboy1]

00z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ensemble comparison:
https://i.ibb.co/VNQMcxj/Webp-net-gifmaker-15.gif

While I'm certainly encouraged here in Jupiter that the operational globals and other forecast models have continued their eastward trend overnight, these ensembles show there are still a lot of landfall scenarios. Even the NHC noted this in their 5 a.m. discussion. When you go back to a storm like Matthew in 2016, a 40-50 mile move east of the track made a HUGE difference on impact here. If we have a 40-50 mile move WEST this time, then the opposite would be true. I am also somewhat concerned the steering influences die off and the storm "parks" in the Bahamas for some time, too. That increases the uncertainty about where it goes next if it were to, say, miss the connection with the incoming trough

[AutoPenalti]

I’m interested as to why the UKMET operational is on the very right of the ensemble mean.

[NDG]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles shift further offshore:

[otowntiger]

06z GFS ensembles shift further offshore:
https://i.imgur.com/nvPDjdh.png

Looking better and better. But I guess I shouldn’t be too positive- these could switch back. But it seems to me that wild westward swing back is not likely since many/most models have grabbed firmly onto this trend. We’ll see. Not letting our guard down as me and my family are fully prepped and will remain that way, but I am encouraged.

[KWT]

The forecasted position for 12z by the latest 06z HWRF is already too far north, something to keep in mind.

Yeah alot of the models are already too far north with its motion. The GFS has somewhat corrected itself but lunches it WNW from about 18z. I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trundling along like this till it hits the weakness and it doesn't bend WNW like some of the models want.