ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

My mistake. This is clearly a turn.

[cape_escape]

1845UTC Hi-res Vis continues wnw wobble

But, wasn't it supposed to eb going WSW today?

[cheezyWXguy]

Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU

That does happen in erc's but I dont see it happening yet. The inner eyewall appears to be in the direct center of the outer eyewall, and it just looks like entire system just turned wnw. Ive been looking at the loop quite a bit.

[cape_escape]

Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU

There must be a trick to it because I get the same thing..

I tried it too, and agree...still looks the same to me.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html



It may be a wobble but this is not west.

[ConvergenceZone]

New 12z EURO pushes Ike west into South Texas.

Well, like I said this morning, I wouldn't be surprised if all the models gradually shift to south Texas and even a few to Mexico

[Aric Dunn]

Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU

There must be a trick to it because I get the same thing..

i did not say it was not moving a little north of west over the last hour but just keep that in mind over the next 12 hours or until landfall ..

[cycloneye]

3:02 PM EDT:

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow looking extremely impressive... I second that this looks more like a turn or a elongated woble

[Vortex]

Satellite imagery continues to improve and the overall structure is becoming classic...

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

It's easier to see in a loop.

[Tom8]

Maybe Ike will bonce and will cheange the course

Maybe Ike will do what?

see ? I predicted this turn at 4:02 am

[Vortex]

Ike looks as good as ever and the wobble wnw continues...

[KatDaddy]

If IKE runs between FLA and Cuba into the GOM, he will still be a powerful storm when he enters the GOM. Hard to believe he will push toward the NW GOM especially with the more NW movement this afternoon. AS with all other GOM storms it willl depend on the ridge. It will be a long week of tracking IKE.

[feederband]

Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU

There must be a trick to it because I get the same thing..

i did not say it was not moving a little north of west over the last hour but just keep that in mind over the next 12 hours or until landfall ..

But I would have to say that this is more than a "APPERARANCE"..

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe Ike will bonce and will cheange the course

Maybe Ike will do what?

see ? I predicted this turn at 4:02 am

you mean you guessed.. what meteorological reasoning did you use?

[Brent]

Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html



It may be a wobble but this is not west.

Definitely not west.

Looks to have slowed WAY down also.

[Vortex]

Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

It's easier to see in a loop.

Hurrakan,

That link clearly shoes what appears to be more than a wobble.

[ConvergenceZone]

I meant to add that I have some friends in Mexico, and are being told by their NWS to keep an eye out on Ike, and that the models may continue to shift south to give them an eventual landfall....... This is quite a storm, started as a possible recurve, then to Florida, then to LA, and now possibly as far west as South Texas, and maybe eventually Mexico....I think the models are starting to latch onto that strong ridge north of Ike, keeping it on a west direction until landfall....

[HouTXmetro]

Ike is generally moving in line with the NHC. Can we stop posting about every single wobble? It's hard to read the board when we are pointing out every single wobble. Please