ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[jasons2k]

Please save the back and forth for the discussion forum and keep this thread focused on the models - thank you!

[chaser1]

I'll list this link here for those curious about Matthew's present motion in relation to forecast track (which is heavily based on model input). This link is for the Model Diagnostic Discussion, which views which models seem to best be handling the various steering and upper level features over the CONUS. Makes for interesting reading as ridge heights, troughs, etc. are analyzed verses various model guidance and often foretells of upcoming nuances that might influence Matthew's future motion. For those who don't have it, here is the link:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd

[fci]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

Agreed. I think there are just a lot of ppl from FL on this forum. They are concerned rightfully so but once the storms pass FL the thread usually slows down lol. I am definitely keeping an eye on this as it will be very close to my neck of the woods. Carteret County NC. We stick out like a sore thumb so us and the outer banks take a lot of landfalls from storms.

Just like when there is a Louisiana or Texas threat and the board is inundated with those folks.

[TimeZone]

The good thing about the GFS shifting further E and making landfalll in Atlantic Canada is Matthew's leftover's make landfall in Nova Scotia, which is an area that deals with Nor-Easter (weather bombs) much more powerful than whatever little Matt's leftovers could possibly have to attempt to offer.

[jlauderdal]

00z Euro... 140 hours a few hundred miles E of Daytona and moved NW from 120-144... Thumb ridge building??? Looks like a zombie face???

these thumb ridges come and go on the modeling as do weak troughs, we see these features come and go on the modeling and mark s spoke of the thumb ridge on one of his videos yesterday..AJC3 mentioned a thumb ridge on the models almost a week ago although that one was much farther south at that point in the modeling at that time and implied a bigger Florida threat...no surprise here with these shifts, the models have had problems all week with the Atlantic high, expecting the models nail a track more than 5 days is unrealistic...nhc has an average 240 mile track error at 5 days, they have continually repeated this in their discos, they are very upfront about difficulty with intensity forecasting although some of it with matt seems to be self imposed(read Alnyos posts on the issue)

odd things can happen to storms as they get tangled up with land interaction around the Windward Passage region so lets see what happens there with intensity before we call for the annihilation of the Bahamas chain

[xironman]

GFS consistent with Matt's over far east Cuba and in the same position at 66. The Bermuda ridge is a bit stronger

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS...more ridging and left of the 00z through 72 hours.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS 06z Initialization trend of last 3 runs---westward track's effect? we'll see

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[FLpanhandle91]

Yup. West again.

[xironman]

Bermuda ridge stronger trend

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to hit somewhere from Ga to NC on this run.

[KWT]

Also worryingly the upper trough that is due to sweep this away looks like its getting flatter and slightly weaker each run...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[KWT]

Just a hint of NNE at 126hrs, but still going to be a close call, way too close for comfort!

[SouthFLTropics]

Biggest 06z change on GFS...more ridging and faster forward speed.

[SouthFLTropics]

OBX gets nailed, hour 138

[KWT]

Landfall on the 06z, same place as Irene.

This run shows though that any slight shift west or east of the track in the early stages WILL make a difference in this set-up.

[xironman]

Don't go camping on the beach at Cape Lookout next weekend. Reminds me of Irene, the sound side flooding on the OBX would be epic.