ATL: IRENE - Models

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#4541 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:29 pm

Jevo wrote:18z GFS +120

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Same map I posted earlier... my site updates faster than RaleighWX does :)
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#4542 Postby BigA » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:30 pm

18Z NOGAPS shows a very similar solution to 18Z GFS, putting the storm over the outer banks and then making landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard, MA.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4543 Postby seahawkjd » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:30 pm

Am I right that this path is a bit to the left of the 12z run? I'm so used to seeing models as line that I can't tell.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4544 Postby BigA » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:31 pm

seahawkjd wrote:Am I right that this path is a bit to the left of the 12z run? I'm so used to seeing models as line that I can't tell.


Really almost identical.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4545 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:32 pm

BigA wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:Am I right that this path is a bit to the left of the 12z run? I'm so used to seeing models as line that I can't tell.


Really almost identical.


Yeah Outer banks graze with hit around New England seems to be consensus at this point.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4546 Postby Riptide » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:33 pm

:double: :sick: :double:
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#4547 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:39 pm

looks like i should start paying attention to this up here more!! huge flood threat up here
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4548 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:39 pm

BigA wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:Am I right that this path is a bit to the left of the 12z run? I'm so used to seeing models as line that I can't tell.


Really almost identical.


+72 looked a tad left of 12z... but overall I would say its is pretty dead on from the previous run
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Re:

#4549 Postby lonelymike » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:49 pm

BigA wrote:18Z NOGAPS shows a very similar solution to 18Z GFS, putting the storm over the outer banks and then making landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard, MA.



Isn't President Obama on vacation up in that area :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4550 Postby UpTheCreek » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:53 pm

Riptide wrote::double: :sick: :double:


Yep! Stand up and be counted New Jersey.
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Re: Re:

#4551 Postby Stephanie » Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:59 pm

lonelymike wrote:
BigA wrote:18Z NOGAPS shows a very similar solution to 18Z GFS, putting the storm over the outer banks and then making landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard, MA.



Isn't President Obama on vacation up in that area :lol:


That's funny, because? If he was in Washington DC, he'd be in the middle of it as well.
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Re: Re:

#4552 Postby MBryant » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:05 pm

lonelymike wrote:
BigA wrote:18Z NOGAPS shows a very similar solution to 18Z GFS, putting the storm over the outer banks and then making landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard, MA.



Isn't President Obama on vacation up in that area :lol:


I wouldn't worry. He can find another place to play golf at a moments notice.
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#4553 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:07 pm

Last 4 operational (non-interpolated) GFS runs pretty consistent, just E of Outer Banks and then NNE to around the Cape Cod area:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4554 Postby MBryant » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:08 pm

Can someone post water temp data for the east coast?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4555 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:27 pm

MBryant wrote:Can someone post water temp data for the east coast?


I use this site...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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#4556 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:29 pm

to be fair thats pretty strong agreement from the last fe GFS runs.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4557 Postby MBryant » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:36 pm

After looking at water temperatures in the projected path, I'm a lot less worried about a major hurricane. I think it will be minimal if it gets by NC.

But! I'm NOT an expert and you should always follow the instructions of your local officials.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4558 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:44 pm

MBryant wrote:After looking at water temperatures in the projected path, I'm a lot less worried about a major hurricane. I think it will be minimal if it gets by NC.

But! I'm NOT an expert and you should always follow the instructions of your local officials.



Exactly, the further north it gets, the more weaker it will be, because it won't have the warm bathwater to sustain it.....If this would have been going to Florida, it could have been a cat 4 or 5 we'd be talking about, as opposed to a cat 1....I'd say anyhing north of New York and you'll be looking at a tropical storm...It could still be up to a weakening cat 1 though as far north as New York
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Re: Re:

#4559 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:45 pm

lonelymike wrote:
BigA wrote:18Z NOGAPS shows a very similar solution to 18Z GFS, putting the storm over the outer banks and then making landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard, MA.



Isn't President Obama on vacation up in that area :lol:



Very funny but it looks like the southern portion of the front off the east coast is breaking down. This might keep Irene closer to the coast.

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GO NOLES 8-)
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#4560 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:57 pm

i know this is probably not what you would look at to determine a trough or the what is supposed to move Irene north and all but if you look at this loop and click the fronts box you can see the front on the east coast going flat and the one droping down in the Midwest.
is the one in the Midwest then one that will take her north?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html
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