June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[HarlequinBoy]

With the notable exception of SE NE, NW MO, and SW IA it looks like this is mostly a wind event.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 060052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR ERN
NEB...EXTREME SWRN SD...WRN IA...NWRN MO AND NERN KS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MN...CENTRAL
IA...NWRN MO...WRN/NRN OK...ERN KS...ERN NEB AND ERN SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND DAMAGE...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS THE PLAINS STATES
EWD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

...PLAINS STATES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK/TX.
EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WAS
LIFTING NWD AND EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN SD EWD ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER. SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD INTO SD
OVERNIGHT...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM THE
SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD INTO NEB/SD.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE POTENT UPPER
SYSTEM...AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET...60-70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONG INSTABILITY. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND STRONGLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...WITH 1 KM SRH FROM 300-400 M2/S2...SUGGEST STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGH RISK AREA. HOWEVER...THE DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE
AND FORM FEW BOW ECHOES...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DERECHO
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS.

SOUTH ACROSS WRN/NRN OK AND NWRN TX...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN FURTHER NORTH DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A
LINE AND MOVE ENEWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BOW HEADS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND
CONSOLIDATED DOWNDRAFTS FAVOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...WITH SOME
HAIL.

..IMY.. 06/06/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0059Z (8:59PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

0100Z: High risk shifted eastward

Eek - i thought the would cancel and return to MDT

[Bunkertor]

Is there a coverage from the Falls area ?

[CrazyC83]

0100Z: High risk shifted eastward

Eek - i thought the would cancel and return to MDT

The 30% tornado risk is gone though - it is all wind-based.

[Bunkertor]

AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET...60-70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR

[HarlequinBoy]

Watch out in Atchison and Holt County in Missouri.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
758 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

MOC005-087-060115-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080606T0115Z/
HOLT MO-ATCHISON MO-
758 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND
HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

...THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!!!...

AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR CORNING ALONG INTERSTATE 29
ALONG THE ATCHISON AND HOLT COUNTY LINE. A SECOND AREA OF VERY
STRONG ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAIG.
THESE TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE RACING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FAIRFAX...MOUND CITY AND FOREST CITY BY 805 PM CDT.
OREGON BY 810 PM CDT.

PERSONS IN FAIRFAX SHOULD BE IN SHELTER NOW!!!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF
NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THESE TORNADOES ARE LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE.
TAKE COVER IN SAFE SHELTER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT
COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

LAT...LON 4050 9522 4047 9520 4027 9519 4026 9508
4016 9508 4013 9506 4007 9507 4004 9502
3999 9502 3991 9519 4032 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 231DEG 45KT 4029 9540 4019 9529
3994 9534

$$

[HarlequinBoy]

Nodaway County, MO about to take a hard hit from wind, and maybe a tornado.

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
MOC005-147-060200-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0019.080606T0110Z-080606T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
810 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ATCHISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI
NODAWAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 804 PM CDT...A SQUALL LINE PRODUCING TORNADOES AND EXTREME
WIND DAMAGE WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRFAX TO 7
MILES NORTH OF MOUND CITY TO WHITE CLOUD...AND RACING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING TORNADOES THAT HAVE CAUSED
TRACTOR TRAILER ROLLOVERS ALONG INTERSTATE 29 IN THE PAST FEW
MINUTES.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!!

* THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SKIDMORE BY 815 PM CDT.
BURLINGTON JUNCTION BY 820 PM CDT.
MARYVILLE BY 830 PM CDT.
MARYVILLE BY 835 PM CDT.
HOPKINS BY 840 PM CDT.
RAVENWOOD BY 845 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF QUITMAN...GRAHAM...ELMO...CLEARMONT...BARNARD...
PICKERING...GUILFORD...ARKOE...CONCEPTION AND CONCEPTION JUNCTION ARE
ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE TORNADIC STORMS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THESE TORNADOES. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE
PLACE.


LAT...LON 4058 9464 4014 9463 4015 9506 4026 9508
4027 9519 4059 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 231DEG 45KT 4038 9524 4028 9514
4003 9519

$$

BOOKBINDER

[wbug1]

0030 UNK QUANAH HARDEMAN TX 3430 9974 NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. RADIO STATION TOWER BLOWN DOWN. CAR WINDOWS BLOWN IN BY WIND. WINDS MEASURED UP TO 65 MPH BEFORE POWER WAS LOST...AND WERE LI (OUN)



0053 CORNING HOLT MO 4025 9545 LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND CROSSING MISSOURI RIVER NEAR HOLT AND ATCHISON COUNTY LINE MOVING NORTHEAST. (EAX)

[Bunkertor]

570
WFUS53 KOAX 060119
TOROAX
IAC145-060145-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0034.080606T0119Z-080606T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
819 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PAGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT.

* AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A
TORNADIC STORM AND TRAINED SPOTTERS CONFIRM A TORNADO. THE TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF COIN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TARKIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 53 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COIN...COLLEGE SPRINGS...SHAMBAUGH...AND CLARINDA...

[HarlequinBoy]

I think Fairfax is okay. Just reporting wind damage, atm.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
836 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

SDC099-060145-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080606T0145Z/
MINNEHAHA SD-
836 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MINNEHAHA COUNTY...

AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CROOKS...OR 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE
COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4373 9683 4364 9670 4353 9687 4355 9691
4360 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 215DEG 36KT 4369 9682

$$

CJ

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...FAR NW MO...FAR SE NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 467...

VALID 060044Z - 060215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 467 CONTINUES.

THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS SW
IA AND SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD INTO CNTRL IA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 990 MB LOW OVER NERN NEB. SFC WINDS ARE
BACKED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF IA AND IN ERN NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH
A 50 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER FAR SW IA IS CREATING
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES. THE LATEST
OMAHA WSR-88D VWP SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILE WITH 0-1 KM SR
HELICITY AROUND 250 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 65 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. IN
ADDITION..RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LCL HEIGHTS ACROSS SW AND CNTRL IA
BELOW 750 METERS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN
A LINE MOVING INTO SW IA ATTM. IN ADDITION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE LINE AND MOVE INTO
THE DES MOINES AREA IN THE 02Z TO 04Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 06/06/2008


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40569340 39969515 40509594 41749567 42459458 42569350
41899274

[CrazyC83]

30 tornado reports now, plus 142 wind reports.

[HarlequinBoy]

30 tornado reports now, plus 142 wind reports.

Yep. A lot of the tornado reports have come from a highly concentrated area though.

I wonder how long the squall line goes.

[Bunkertor]

0z Soundings are unbelievable - even for DET, PIT. I wonder why no tornado occured in Oklahoma.

[CrazyC83]

0z Soundings are unbelievable - even for DET, PIT. I wonder why no tornado occured in Oklahoma.

I think it is because there isn't enough shear down there.

[Bunkertor]

0z Soundings are unbelievable - even for DET, PIT. I wonder why no tornado occured in Oklahoma.

I think it is because there isn't enough shear down there.

That must be it. Think there´s no other explanation.