WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[phwxenthusiast]

whoa what the?!?! thats very strong!! 145kts for a peak strength; this is getting scarier by the minute...

[supercane]

Still waiting for updated KNES sat bulletin for new Dvorak, but RJTD and PGTW issued their sat fix bulletins with identical positions.

450
TCNA20 RJTD 162100
CCAA 16210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17187 11281 113/4 2//// 92814=



TPPN11 PGTW 162108
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/2030Z
C. 18.7N
D. 128.1E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1525Z 18.6N 129.3E TRMM
16/1707Z 18.5N 128.9E MMHS
KIENZLE

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like it's starting to move westward now don't you think?? 18.7N was also the latitude from their 18z update, IIRC..

[supercane]

KNES Dvorak in at T7.0, corresponding to 140kt!

TXPN23 KNES 162127
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/2030Z
C. 18.7N
D. 128.1E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH WELL DEFINED EYE PRESENT. DT OF 7.0 IS BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED
AND SURROUNDED BY CMG. MET IS 6.0 AND PT IS 6.5 DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. FT
THOUGH IS BASED ON DT.
NIL
...SIMKO
=

phwxenthusiast, while the 12-hr motion may still be WNW, I agree with you that the W turn is imminent.

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA to 100kts... i'm speechless...

[supercane]

JMA 21Z up to 100kt with forecast peak of 110kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 18.7N 128.1E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 18.0N 123.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 181800UTC 16.6N 118.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 191800UTC 15.8N 114.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[neospaceblue]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2010 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 18:44:57 N Lon : 128:03:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 918.3mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +0.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Cookie]

I cant Wait for the updates from James

[supercane]

PAGASA raises Storm Signal No. 2 for some areas:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "JUAN" (MEGI)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Sunday, 17 October 2010
Typhoon "JUAN" has intensified further and now endangers Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 630 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.7°N, 128.2°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 160 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: West at 24 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday morning:
140 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Tuesday morning:
220 km West Southwest of Laoag City
Wednesday morning:
770 km West of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Isabela None None

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Batanes group of Islands
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mountain Province
La Union
Benguet
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Nueva Ecija
Pangasinan None None

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 2 and # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signal # 2 and # 1 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.

Map of N PI for reference:

[P.K.]

Up to 100kts and forecast to peak at 110kts which doesn't happen too often.

[P.K.]

FL winds of 144kts in the last set which would correspond to surface winds of 110kts.

[P.K.]

So from that pass we have surface winds of 115kts (148kt FL).

[supercane]

Yes, but also peak SFMR of 127kt. This system has had higher SFMR than flight level winds on the east side and lower SFMR than flight level on the west side. Too bad that many of the SFMR obs are marked /// (i.e., NA). Minimum pressure was around 910 mb. Awaiting VDM.

[P.K.]

Again though that 127kt would correspond to 111kt per the wind interval for this basin. I already took that into account when reducing from FL. Yes the pressures look a little off for some of those obs, also waiting for the VDM.

[hurricaneCW]

Up to 100kts and forecast to peak at 110kts which doesn't happen too often.

Isn't that really low, I mean this one is clearly going to get up to 135-145 knots. Why only 100-110?

[phwxenthusiast]

Up to 100kts and forecast to peak at 110kts which doesn't happen too often.

Isn't that really low, I mean this one is clearly going to get up to 135-145 knots. Why only 100-110?

those are 10-min averages if i'm not mistaken... JTWC is forecasting a peak of 145kts (1-min)...

[P.K.]

The JMA's Dvorak scale tops out at 120kts for T8.0. Even 135kts is bit of a stretch for a 10min basin using the standard Dvorak scale though!

[supercane]

868
URPA12 PGUA 162231
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/22:03:50Z
B. 18 deg 35 min N
127 deg 51 min E
C. 700 mb 1986 m
D. 127 kt
E. 016 deg 7 nm
F. 095 deg 148 kt
G. 017 deg 7 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C / 3051 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C5
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0630W MEGI OB 09
MAX FL WIND 148 KT N QUAD 22:01:30Z
OUTBOUND SFC WNDS 128 KTS
OUTBOUND FLT LVL WNDS 131 KTS
GREAT STADIUM EFFECT
;

[neospaceblue]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2010 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 18:39:56 N Lon : 127:50:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.3mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[supercane]

Just to clarify, calculations as follows based on VDM:
In 1-min wind intervals (original data) (1-min interval used by JTWC, NHC)
SFMR peak wind=127kt
Peak Flight level wind=148kt
Typical reduction at 700mb=90%
Estimated surface wind based on reduction of flight level wind=0.9(148)= 133kt

In 10-min wind intervals (done by taking typical reduction from 1-min wind of ~12%) (10-min intervals used by everyone else [e.g., JMA])
SFMR peak wind=112kt
Flight-level wind reduced to surface =117kt