ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Rgv20]

A little of topic, but I cant believe my NWS office disrespected King Euro like that....lol

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...CONSIDERABLE
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FATE OF THE EXPECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
ITS IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST. NAM...GFS...DGEX ALL BRING THIS
SYSTEM TO THE UPPER TEXAS OR LOUISIANA COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE AS MODELS WERE
PREVIOUSLY TOUTING...THE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE MID LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD ACTUALLY BRING CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL DRAG DRIER AIR FROM THE LAND AREAS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL BE IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETREATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST US. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIM TO NIL ALL OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MARINE AND COASTAL COUNTIES FOR NOW DUE TO THE OUTLIER
ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODEL DEVELOPS AND KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND JUST OFFSHORE OF BROWNSVILLE FROM SAT THROUGH
TUE.

[South Texas Storms]

EURO and CMC sniffed this very scenario out before the GFS....so props to those globals....

Wow Rock! Awesome! Good thing we are hanging out in the winners camp. We knew it was only a matter of time until the GFS switched back over to the best camp.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Could be wrong but I don 't think the models factor in the shear. Notice how they always strengthen a storm going through the atlantic ie Katia and while it is going over land. They dont take that into account either. Could it be too hard for them to forecast? I'm starting to think this will not do much but bring some rain over the gulf south, but before I totally commit will wait until tomorrow to see what happens. Who knows by tomorrow evening there might be 10 knot shear or 40 knot shear over the gulf.

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS 00z @ 165h is showing like 3" at the extreme SE corner of Texas. On the last GFS at 171h, the 3" was along the central LA gulf coast.

and that my friend is why you never hang your hat on one run of the GFS..... Hell this year you couldnt hang your hat on 15 runs in a row showing Irene into FL....

I love the EURO and CMC...I could just hug them....

I'm glad we feel the same way. Maybe the GFS will trend even more west like the 12z CMC today and spread tons of rain all across the southern half of the state.

[ROCK]

A little of topic, but I cant believe my NWS office disrespected King Euro like that....lol

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...CONSIDERABLE
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FATE OF THE EXPECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
ITS IMPACTS TO THE GULF COAST. NAM...GFS...DGEX ALL BRING THIS
SYSTEM TO THE UPPER TEXAS OR LOUISIANA COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE AS MODELS WERE
PREVIOUSLY TOUTING...THE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE MID LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD ACTUALLY BRING CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL DRAG DRIER AIR FROM THE LAND AREAS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL BE IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETREATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST US. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIM TO NIL ALL OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MARINE AND COASTAL COUNTIES FOR NOW DUE TO THE OUTLIER
ECMWF MODEL. THIS MODEL DEVELOPS AND KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND JUST OFFSHORE OF BROWNSVILLE FROM SAT THROUGH
TUE.

when was this written? today...the AFDs I saw today hailed the EURO and CMC as god-like models...with the GFS the outlier....not anymore though...the GFS is trying to play in the same sand box....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

GFS never intensifies it much more than a TD or low end TS....which would be good if it was headed our direction...

I will have to agree with the GFS on this though Rock. Think shear will be a part of whatever 93L becomes most of its life and hinder any major developement even in 90 degree waters. On top of that once it gets close enough to the coast will start wrapping in drier air from the north and could even weaken it more. Seen this happen numerous times around here. Looks horrible tonight and have a hard time seeing this 30 knot shear dropping off especially with that little ull moving along our coast . But like you said the CMC and Euro will be mighty interesting later tonight.

Also do the models take into consideration current shear and longer range shear forecasts?

[Rgv20]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

I was a little surprise that they wrote that as the HPC was favoring the ECMWF solution.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011

I was a little surprise that they wrote that as the HPC was favoring the ECMWF solution.

yeah Jeff Linder wrote on the call today with NWS offices that they favored the EURO solution more so than the GFS....wierd....if the GFS pans out they will get their fair share of rain...

[Rgv20]

It looks like on the 0zNogaps 93L also misses the trough.....93L tracks close to the TX&LA border and than the ridge builds back in forcing it SW towards NE Mexico and South Texas.

[Shoshana]

As long as that shear is howling across the Gulf it's going to be difficult to keep much of anything going. Maybe it'll turn out to be a drought-buster for someone, but so far no dice.

Like many here, I really hope this heads to Texas as a super soaker.

And hello flash flooding

The ground is so dry here that it would indeed cause flash floods - when I hand water, the water starts running off after about a minute. I have to use soaker hoses turned way down.

I hope everyone in it's possible path is at least listening to their local news.

All just my opinion!

[Rgv20]

0zCMC holds serve still showing a very close call to Houston followed by a dip to the SW toward South Texas.

Landfall in South Texas Monday Morning....I think it may be a tad on the fast side but as you can see by the new model runs tonight In my opinion 93L missing the trough is the most likely scenario..

[South Texas Storms]

That would give SE TX and Central TX lots of rain.

[ROCK]

yeah the CMC has been stuck on this solution for 3 runs now.....looks likely now...

[paintplaye]

Also the Canadian gets the pressure all the way down to 982mb so something to watch there also.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah the CMC has been stuck on this solution for 3 runs now.....looks likely now...

Yeah it has been very consistent with that solution. That would make me very happy.

[Nikki]

Am I the only Texan who smells rain and possible sleepless nights in the future if these models pan out?

[ROCK]

Also the Canadian gets the pressure all the way down to 982mb so something to watch there also.

that seems a bit on the high side...tha would be a Cat 1 mostly likely...

[paintplaye]

Also the Canadian gets the pressure all the way down to 982mb so something to watch there also.

that seems a bit on the high side...tha would be a Cat 1 mostly likely...

You think the Canadian isn't strengthening the storm enough?

[Kohlecane]

Ha the Spaghetti models are Crazy on this by Sunday

[Jagno]

Hmmmm, 982mb is a Cat 1 from what I've seen on other storm info???

Sorry, I had to reread the info. Rock is correct.