ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#461 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:51 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Well seems to me the major models are now in agreement and latching on to this being much weaker with yet another summertime trough catching this and turning it out to sea. Guess all that's left is strength and when it makes the turn. Shouldn't really come as a big surprise to anyone as this has been the theme this year.


Yep, I have been harping on this several times this week. These troughs have been frequent and unusually strong all season long ang it appears this next trough coming down will not be any different. Things can still change and a couple of our reliable models still do not bite on the recurve scenario. Howver, GFS and EURO are now in agreement that the trough will pick it up and carry 96L out to sea.

If that pans out, thankfully The Florida peninsula and the US East Coast overall hopefully will be spared once again. We shall see soon.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#462 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:52 am

perk wrote:
tolakram wrote:
NDG wrote:What I don't get while the Euro and GFS have gone with a recurve is that both the UKMET and HWRF, two very good models, are persistent of no recurve, in fact the latest 06z HWRF so far looks identical to its earlier 0z run.


I'm not so sure the HWRF is that much better, maybe it just got lucky a few times? This could be the big test for it.



It can't be any worse the GFS has shifted from Texas to east of Florida in 2 days. That' over a thousand miles.



Touché :roflmao:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#463 Postby blp » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:29 am

00z Ukmet, still very resonable in IMO. It was the first to pickup on this sytem and has been steady throughout.

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#464 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:36 am

It's good the GFS and Euro are both generally in agreement with a recurve, but as others have pointed out, several models are still not recurving. I would like to see a few more runs of the GFS and Euro to feel more confident too. The 00Z GFS had it only crawling north in the Bahamas.

00Z FIM:
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#465 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:37 am

notice the trend, the intense models are west, the weak models recurve
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Re:

#466 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:54 am

Would a stronger system go out to sea?
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Re:

#467 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:55 am

Alyono wrote:notice the trend, the intense models are west, the weak models recurve


Kinda hard to go against the GFS/Euro not showing development for many days until it's recurving into the Atlantic...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#468 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:00 am

FIM is recurving this now also. Would not surprise me if recon is a no go. Might not even develope at all.

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#469 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:06 am

So the only models not recurving are the HWRF and the UKMET. The majority are in the recurve and stay weak camp..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#470 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:08 am

You can get a good idea of where all the globals are by looking at this page and clicking on D5 for each model.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
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Re:

#471 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:09 am

gatorcane wrote:So the only models not recurving are the HWRF and the UKMET. The majority are in the recurve and stay weak camp..


Yep.. well see if they come around during the next few runs. We are still dealing with a struggling system this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#472 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:14 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Well seems to me the major models are now in agreement and latching on to this being much weaker with yet another summertime trough catching this and turning it out to sea. Guess all that's left is strength and when it makes the turn. Shouldn't really come as a big surprise to anyone as this has been the theme this year.

Please look at the HWRF post directly below yours.

Thank you.
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#473 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:18 am

Those are two different FIMs. The FIM-9 run is over a day old.
Last edited by Hurricane Andrew on Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#474 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:20 am

12Z Guidance, not in agreement but the overall envelope has favored a recurve even more - and the guidance is north of even Puerto Rico now...

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#475 Postby ninel conde » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:32 am

the dry air got it as soon as it lifted from the ITCZ. might do something as it heads out east of bermuda.
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Re:

#476 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:03 am

ninel conde wrote:the dry air got it as soon as it lifted from the ITCZ. might do something as it heads out east of bermuda.

No models take it that far east.
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Re:

#477 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:09 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z Guidance, not in agreement but the overall envelope has favored a recurve even more - and the guidance is north of even Puerto Rico now...

http://i58.tinypic.com/2w6scax.jpg

Notice how several models stop after 24hrs. Dissipation? Hmm...
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#478 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:22 am

The UKMET was the first to sniff this out, and it's consistency has been major. I would definitely trust it over the flip-flopping GFS, which, in the last 8 runs, has shown landfalls anywhere from Texas to Bermuda. Same goes for the GEM.
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Re: Re:

#479 Postby ninel conde » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:23 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
ninel conde wrote:the dry air got it as soon as it lifted from the ITCZ. might do something as it heads out east of bermuda.

No models take it that far east.


the trend is the models is east. they may drop it all together soon with it encased in dry air now.
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Re:

#480 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:24 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:The UKMET was the first to sniff this out, and it's consistency has been major. I would definitely trust it over the flip-flopping GFS, which, in the last 8 runs, has shown landfalls anywhere from Texas to Bermuda. Same goes for the GEM.


The european model also showed landfall along the Mississippi gulf coast a day or so ago.
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