EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

When is the next Advisory from the NHC?

At 15z, so around 90-120 mins from now.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go 135 kt personally. Almost looks like a T7.0 with ADT really struggling on this pinhole eye. But make a note it may be conservative.

[Yellow Evan]

A blend of SAB and raw/adjusted ADT yields 130 knts though. There is a limit to how much a TC can intensify.

[Ntxw]

We really need to get drones if we're not going to get recon. She's that close, quite impressive.

[Hurricane_Luis]

When is the next Advisory from the NHC?

At 15z, so around 90-120 mins from now.

Ok, thanks, a bit of a wait then.



Hurricane Marie is looking good.

[Yellow Evan]

Notice latest frame, eye looks a little obscured. Does it mean Marie has peaked?

[Yellow Evan]

Outstanding

[euro6208]

I agree with the 135 knots from the other poster...Eye not nearly that perfect to upgrade to a Category 5 and overall organization looks weird but somewhat lacking in something...

[Ntxw]

Notice latest frame, eye looks a little obscured. Does it mean Marie has peaked?

She's been wobbling, and there's some intense S/SW band. I don't think peak has passed, though not much experience to go from to gauge.

[Yellow Evan]

Notice latest frame, eye looks a little obscured. Does it mean Marie has peaked?

She's been wobbling, and there's some intense S/SW band. I don't think peak has passed, though not much experience to go from to gauge.

Looking at it again, the eye looks more circular.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:27 N Lon : 110:59:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 947.6mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.3 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

I agree with the 135 knots from the other poster...Eye not nearly that perfect to upgrade to a Category 5 and overall organization looks weird but somewhat lacking in something...

I'd support an upgrade to 140 knts if we can get a little more convection on the NW. May even be upgradeable now, but give it time for the winds the catch up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Most impressive IMO since Rick in 2009. Not so sure with Celia.

[mrbagyo]

let's see the SST ahead of her.
IMO, if she really wants to peak at cat 5, the best time to do it is NOW.

[Yellow Evan]

Most impressive IMO since Rick in 2009. Not so sure with Celia.

Why not? Celia earned 7.0 form both TAFB and SAb.

[euro6208]

How many storms in the epac has reached 7.0 or higher?

[Yellow Evan]

How many storms in the epac has reached 7.0 or higher?

Tons.

During the EPHC era, a couple probs earned 7.0 but were kept as a high-end Cat 4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Most impressive IMO since Rick in 2009. Not so sure with Celia.

Why not? Celia earned 7.0 form both TAFB and SAb.

Convection was not as impressive as Marie, it was quite thin. It had also struggled with intensity for several days. I hope the NHC revises Marie's intensity to 135 knots, or even 140 knots!

[Yellow Evan]

Most impressive IMO since Rick in 2009. Not so sure with Celia.

Why not? Celia earned 7.0 form both TAFB and SAb.

Convection was not as impressive as Marie, it was quite thin. It had also struggled with intensity for several days. I hope the NHC revises Marie's intensity to 135 knots, or even 140 knots!

Convection looks better in Marie's case due to D-Max. Celia's problem was that it never got a well-defined eye. When it did, it exploded.

I could see 135 knts, but I'd be surprised if this got 140 knts.

[euro6208]

How many storms in the epac has reached 7.0 or higher?

Tons.

During the EPHC era, a couple probs earned 7.0 but were kept as a high-end Cat 4.

If Marie becomes a Cat 5, What would be it's ranking? like how many Cat 5's have there been before Marie...