2016 EPAC Season

[Darvince]

Down to 921mb:

[Darvince]

A very large and disorganized second storm struggles to get going under the influence of the monster, but eventually does reach TS strength:

[cycloneye]

10%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form in this area during the next day or so, and
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical
depression to develop over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[tolakram]

0z Euro

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/748523447005896704

[WeatherGuesser]

Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

5 Days will be just fine since it will be after the 3rd. If the previous information was correct and what they go by, that will get us in the record books with some kind of notation, asterisk, gold star or Qewpie Doll.

And I'll hush now.

[cycloneye]

Development begins at 54 hours on GFS 12z run.



Down to 989 mbs at 84 hours. New one begins to develop behind.

[cycloneye]

120 hours down to 961 mbs.

[cycloneye]

At 150 hours is down to 950 mbs and system behind develops more.

[cycloneye]

Down to 941 mbs at 168 hours.The one behind is down to 995 mbs.

[PTrackerLA]

So...been lightly following this but the GFS sniffed out this intense hurricane development days before the Euro came on board correct? Will be interesting to see if this materializes and good to keep in mind for the season.

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure is 939 mbs at 180 hours and that is higher than past runs as the lows.

[gatorcane]

It's exciting that there is a good chance of seeing a hurricane in this part of the world and maybe even a major hurricane, maybe multiple hurricanes. EPAC is lighting up!

[Yellow Evan]

Through 234 hours; 3 systems now.

[cycloneye]

Wow,look at the second one how strong it gets.And yet a third one?

[TheStormExpert]

Like the last 2-3 seasons the Eastern Pacific steals the thunder. What's new?

As impressive as these major hurricanes may be affecting no land in the Eastern Pacific I'd like to see the Atlantic be able to do the same once again producing fish storms.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Like the last 2-3 seasons the Eastern Pacific steals the thunder. What's new?

As impressive as these major hurricanes may be affecting no land in the Eastern Pacific I'd like to see the Atlantic be able to do the same once again producing fish storms.

I may need to adjust my numbers lower for the Atlantic. The Epac is going to start lighting it up and increasing shear in the Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

Like the last 2-3 seasons the Eastern Pacific steals the thunder. What's new?

As impressive as these major hurricanes may be affecting no land in the Eastern Pacific I'd like to see the Atlantic be able to do the same once again producing fish storms.

CFS has lots of upper level divergence over the EPAC in July, but is less favorable in August and September. I still think the ATL gets rolling in September, given the La Nina and projected low shear in the Caribbean.

[JaxGator]

Like the last 2-3 seasons the Eastern Pacific steals the thunder. What's new?

As impressive as these major hurricanes may be affecting no land in the Eastern Pacific I'd like to see the Atlantic be able to do the same once again producing fish storms.

I may need to adjust my numbers lower for the Atlantic. The Epac is going to start lighting it up and increasing shear in the Caribbean.

This cycle in the Atlantic isn't permanent imo as the basin has produced many big hurricanes. Take the 30s-60s for example. And we already had 4 storms already (regardless of strength) so we'll see what happens from here on out. As for the E-Pac, it'll be nice to track a hurricane when it's not threatening land. Sure it'll cause shear across the Caribbean if the flow of cyclones materializes but I'll be impressed to see a cyclone outbreak here.

[cycloneye]

NHC adds new area west of the now 30/80.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure, located about 550 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression
to form over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to only
marginally favorable environmental conditions while the system
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart