ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[sma10]

:eek: 950’s

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hi Adrian. Do you have the link to this experimental model?

Hi my friend sure do. I am following this model since it did so well last season. It has a major hurricane 950’s just of FL coastline. We shall see.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Thanks for the link. Do we know when this will go "live"? Do we know if it has performed better than the HWRF this season?

[TheProfessor]

It's not a matter of models having trouble with storms that haven't consolidated and formed a LLC, it's more of the fact that before an LLC forms the models are estimating the location of where the LLC will form and since that's a forecast, it can have error. It's especially true with these large circulations. If the models are 50 miles off of where the center actually forms that could be the difference between a re-curve and a storm hitting the northern gulf down the road. That's why it's important to have the center nailed first. I've seen models have great consensus in the long range only for variability to increase in the medium range because something in the short term changed. Obviously if the models do nail where the actual center forms and most of them are correct with 92L becoming a hurricane then they can and most likely will be correct from this far out, but we've seen enough missteps only 2-3 days out with the models this year to be cautious about consensus that's 7-10 days away.

[aspen]

18z GFS is still weak. My best guess is that dry air gets into the broad circulation. It and 12z CMC and 18z ICON show a moderate TS in 4-5 days passing just north of Barbuda.

[supercane4867]

18z HMON makes more sense than HWRF in terms of intensity and structure. Very broad and loose TS with low central pressure.

[HurricaneFrances04]

[SFLcane]

Luis, HWRF has a hurricane coming for you heading westward

[Evil Jeremy]

https://i.imgur.com/CR1LRXU.png

Here are Irma GFS ensembles from when Irma (a Cat 2 at this point, far more established for a model to latch on to, than an invest) was at 92L's longitude.



Long. Week. Ahead.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/CR1LRXU.png

Here are Irma GFS ensembles from when Irma (a Cat 2 at this point, far more established for a model to latch on to, than an invest) was at 92L's longitude.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIp94JiVYAEzYOD?format=jpg

Long. Week. Ahead.

Sure thing..thank you for this.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/CR1LRXU.png

Here are Irma GFS ensembles from when Irma (a Cat 2 at this point, far more established for a model to latch on to, than an invest) was at 92L's longitude.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIp94JiVYAEzYOD?format=jpg

Long. Week. Ahead.

Sure thing..thank you for this.

Honestly, I think every CV storm that has impacted the Caribbean and CONUS had a few model cycles of recurves.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/CR1LRXU.png

Here are Irma GFS ensembles from when Irma (a Cat 2 at this point, far more established for a model to latch on to, than an invest) was at 92L's longitude.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIp94JiVYAEzYOD?format=jpg

Long. Week. Ahead.

and that SW dive was far more “SW” than modeled.

[cycloneye]

Adrian.Yikes, that band of eyewall in north coast is in my house.

[CyclonicFury]

18z Euro keeps this very weak and opens it up into a wave in the eastern Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

HWRF is way south heading WNW.

[Kazmit]

HWRF is way south heading WNW.

https://iili.io/dTZBwu.gif

Only thing I can think of when I see this is a particular storm from a few years ago.

[SFLcane]

[CyclonicFury]

I have some doubts of the HWRF verifying after its dismal performance with Gonzalo. It did fairly well with Hanna though...

[SFLcane]

I have some doubts of the HWRF verifying after its dismal performance with Gonzalo. It did fairly well with Hanna though...

Not looking at intensity just track for now. Many days ahead

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/CR1LRXU.png

Here are Irma GFS ensembles from when Irma (a Cat 2 at this point, far more established for a model to latch on to, than an invest) was at 92L's longitude.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIp94JiVYAEzYOD?format=jpg

Long. Week. Ahead.

and that SW dive was far more “SW” than modeled.

Irma also started off quite a bit further north than 92L is now, it needed that SW turn just to get down to 15 degrees before turning back WNW.

Of course, just a couple of weeks later Maria came into the islands south of where Irma did and still missed the CONUS to the east, so that doesn't mean a whole lot.

[chaser1]

Adrian.Yikes, that band of eyewall in north coast is in my house.

https://i.imgur.com/5AiiXrr.png

Luquillo area?

[HurricaneFrances04]

https://i.imgur.com/CR1LRXU.png

Here are Irma GFS ensembles from when Irma (a Cat 2 at this point, far more established for a model to latch on to, than an invest) was at 92L's longitude.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIp94JiVYAEzYOD?format=jpg

Long. Week. Ahead.

I remember Irma being a good recruve candidate, but forgot how far east those early runs were. Even the EURO was pretty far east that same cycle https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903557983858290688