TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[superfly]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

Yeah, unwound isn't the word I was looking for... exposed/open is more like it.

It looks like it's closed back up in the last visible still.

[clfenwi]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

Yeah, unwound isn't the word I was looking for... exposed/open is more like it.

It looks like it's closed back up in the last visible still.

Yep. Images 200-202 show that fairly well.

[Astro_man92]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

Yeah, unwound isn't the word I was looking for... exposed/open is more like it.

It looks like it's closed back up in the last visible still.

Yep. Images 200-202 show that fairly well.

link???

[clfenwi]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

Yeah, unwound isn't the word I was looking for... exposed/open is more like it.

It looks like it's closed back up in the last visible still.

Yep. Images 200-202 show that fairly well.

link???

I gave it in my first comments but here it is anyhow:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/202.jpg


The loop can be accessed through

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Astro_man92]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

Yeah, unwound isn't the word I was looking for... exposed/open is more like it.

It looks like it's closed back up in the last visible still.

Yep. Images 200-202 show that fairly well.

link???

I gave it in my first comments but here it is anyhow:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/202.jpg


The loop can be accessed through

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

oh thanks

[Astro_man92]

Like I said earlyer the convection looked like it was moving towards the center. It got there but then the convection closest to the center started moving away from it to the SE from the center.

I don't know what you people are talking about an unwound center because though out the whole loop the center looks fine to me. I can see clouds going all around the center it almost looks perfectly cemetrical to me.

[clfenwi]

Like I said earlyer the convection looked like it was moving towards the center. It got there but then the convection closest to the center started moving away from it to the SE from the center.

I don't know what you people are talking about an unwound center because though out the whole loop the center looks fine to me. I can see clouds going all around the center it almost looks perfectly cemetrical to me.

As I said to Derek, unwound isn't quite the word I was looking for. Open or exposed are better descriptions. In http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/198.jpg the clouds that had wrapped the center to the north are instead running north-south along the western side, giving the appearance that there are no clouds wrapped around the center. Wxman57's zoomed in shot of the image that followed http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene44.gif shows a closed center by a single line of clouds.

[elysium]

The models are now just beginning to bend left in response to the ridge, which is stronger than what is currently being forecast, and the trough that is suppose to come off the east coast in 48 hrs. which may be weaker than is being forecast, although I'm not finding anything but trace data indicating trough strength or weakness. I am not sure. It could be a stronger trough than estimated.

Irene will encounter this trough in about 60 hrs or so. She should be located somewhere around 65W and 20N to 23N, somewhere in there. You know, unless Irene is approaching minimal hurricane status by that time, if the trough is strong enough, it could really do some damage. There is a distinct possibility that Irene will degenerate back down to depression status or less if she is weak at time of the encounter with the trough, and the trough is strong.

If Irene is a strong tropical storm at that time, the trough won't necessarily weaken her as much as it will pull her more to the north, but it doesn't appear as though Irene will get much further north than 28N before resuming a westward motion once again. here we could speculate on intensity and so forth, but I'm running a little late here and need to close.

Irene is most worthy of monitoring now, and for some time to come. If Irene can reach strong tropical storm status or better over the next 3 days, she may be retired this year.

[elysium]

Irene has never looked better. Should be approaching minimal hurricane status in 24 hrs.

[gkrangers]

12z Euro...says...from day 7.5 to day 8-9...Goldsboro, NC..then towards the Chesapeake Bay, then offshore NJ, then northeast towards Marthas Vineyard.

Cool huh?

[Andrew92]

Irene has never looked better. Should be approaching minimal hurricane status in 24 hrs.

You're joking right? The center is exposed and the system is still very sheared.

-Andrew92

[TS Zack]

It has looked alot worse than this. It is definitely looking better than sometimes in the past.

[Andrew92]

It has looked alot worse than this. It is definitely looking better than sometimes in the past.

Well OK, considering it never has looked very good, it doesn't look that horrible.

But it's still really weak, and still doesn't look good at all.

-Andrew92

[TS Zack]

Yes, it is nowhere near Hurricane status but maybe trying to get to close to becoming a Tropical Storm.

[Ivanhater]

we should be hoping for irene to bomb out sooner rather than later, the sooner it will recurve

[feederband]

If shear would let up it could wrap up pretty quickly...

[superfly]

I can't see it reaching anywhere past mild TS status for the next 2-3 days.

[Nimbus]

Once Irene starts to get under the ridge the pressure gradient should increase which will help her intensify enough to overcome some of the shear.

There is still some shear ahead although as she moves west under the eastern side of the ridge that may start to push the convection southeast of her LLC..

[Astro_man92]

WHOW QUESION that I think would be pretty interesting. is it possible if shear hits a hurricane just right can it actually help the circulation (note the drawing)

[WindRunner]

WHOW QUESION that I think would be pretty interesting. is it possible if shear hits a hurricane just right can it actually help the circulation (note the drawing)

Yeah, that's not shear. That's a low on top of the storm, in which it would be part of the storm, which would just be the winds the storm has anyway. (if you follow)