99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[BamaMan]

Texas ??

[flhurricaneguy]

So now the models have shifted and have it heading towards the gulf, does anyone know what caused the shift? Were they anticipating the ridge to build in quicker?

[KatDaddy]

Its moving W fairly quick. It looks like it will be over Central America in a day or two and then into the EPAC. Hopefully no more GOM storms this season

[caneman]

Texas ??

Belize and Mexico.

[flhurricaneguy]

your right i just got a look at it on ir loop its move really quick, i guess we can say bye to this one

[flhurricaneguy]

Good thing it is moving away so fast it looks like its really starting to flare up this morning

[Stratosphere747]

Actually the models have it heading towards C America or Mexico. Looks like it is organizing east and south of where the models initially had it yesterday. GOM'er looks less likely now....IMO..

[KatDaddy]

Looks like all the storm panels will be removed Saturday and life back to 100% normal. Bring on the first Fall cool fronts!

[O Town]

Wow the models have really shifted. Good news! Lets hope they stay in that area.

[Starburst]

unfortunately models do not have alot to do with it right now as there is no surface low to initialize the models correct me if I am wrong.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270835
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION... THEY COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

.

NHC still expects a turn to the NW soon...

[flhurricaneguy]

well whats up next after 99l?

[Frank2]

Re: boca_chris's post

That TWO was written before the above models were initialized (all shown the system moving WNW into Central America or Mexico), so, the 11:30 TWO should say something different...

The system at 10N 40W is the one that might need to be watched...

Frank

[Starburst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
343 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005
ATTM...IT IS LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR NEEDED HVY RAINS TO COME VISITING
BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AS AN EASTERLY WAVE AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE IN CAMPECHE ENCROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS
CURRENTLY BEING RECOGNIZED BY NHC..." A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... THEY COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA "...AND A
CONTINUED MONITORING IS ENSURED.

[gatorcane]

thanks Frank, my confusion.

[Starburst]

ditto that Frank

[no advance]

System seems to be showing banding.

[no advance]

JB said N of Puerto Rico again.

[Stratosphere747]

8am TWD

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
WAVE IS BENEATH NE UPPER FLOW FROM THE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.


CARIBBEAN...
THE AREA IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 22N82W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 17N85W AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA COVERING
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA E OF 65W WITH THE GREATEST
INTENSITY ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W.

[cycloneye]

724
NOUS42 KNHC 261430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1030 AM EDT MON 26 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST AT 28/18Z
NEAR 18N 81W.



The above is from yesterdays plan of the day.

As MW said yesterday we will know how the level of interest at NHC is for this system with the plan of the day.Now let's see todays plan to see if they continue with the same task tommorow or they add more missions.