Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[wxman57]

Interesting discussion about intensity on NHC advisory:

"SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE."

So, does this mean that there is now a requirement that a TS have TS-force winds over/near the center in order to be called a TS? If it still has a closed circulation and wind estimates are 35-45 kts, then shouldn't it be classified as a TS? Or is the NHC suggesting that the satellite estimates of wind speed may be in error due to the inability to locate the center?

Another part of the discussion is interesting:

"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD."

Translation -- the NHC brought the forward speed way down beyond 96 hours so they don't have to point it at the coast yet at 120hrs. They have done that a lot over the years. I remember with Debby of 2000, they had the same 72 hr point for almost 3 days so they wouldn't have to commit to a landfall forecast.

I can imagine that the NHC guys are under some serious political pressure with this storm. Their job is not an easy one. If I were in their shoes, I'd be very cautious about taking the storm toward any point on the coast yet.

[curtadams]

I understand why NHC didn't upgrade, because they are very conservative with the naming upgrade and it's not certain this is even a cyclone. However, it's odd that it's "TD5" since there's basically no way it's a tropical depression - with that quickscat and that CDO it's pretty much certain there's wind > 35kts in there. It's either a TS or a super-TW. Maybe they need to add a "tropical thingie" category?

[Wx_Warrior]

Eastern Mexico with Ernesto Madril would be great news for ALL!!!!!

[OuterBanker]

Seems that Stacy Stewart is rubbing off on other NHC forecasters. Very good discussion at 11. Lots of concerns for the Gulf early next week, monster wave actually gaining convec as it exits Africa (Sun or Mon td). Probably will be a fish too but a little lower than Debby so not set in stone yet. I'm just glad there is an impenetrable trough on the east coast that superman couldn't get through.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1457.shtml

[Noles2006]

Interesting discussion about intensity on NHC advisory:

"SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE."

So, does this mean that there is now a requirement that a TS have TS-force winds over/near the center in order to be called a TS? If it still has a closed circulation and wind estimates are 35-45 kts, then shouldn't it be classified as a TS? Or is the NHC suggesting that the satellite estimates of wind speed may be in error due to the inability to locate the center?

Another part of the discussion is interesting:

"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD."

Translation -- the NHC brought the forward speed way down beyond 96 hours so they don't have to point it at the coast yet at 120hrs. They have done that a lot over the years. I remember with Debby of 2000, they had the same 72 hr point for almost 3 days so they wouldn't have to commit to a landfall forecast.

I can imagine that the NHC guys are under some serious political pressure with this storm. Their job is not an easy one. If I were in their shoes, I'd be very cautious about taking the storm toward any point on the coast yet.

So, for this one, really just monitor the 'cone' for the time being because there's a lot of uncertainty in everything [track, strength] after 96 hours.

[gatorcane]

Interesting discussion about intensity on NHC advisory:

"SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE."

So, does this mean that there is now a requirement that a TS have TS-force winds over/near the center in order to be called a TS? If it still has a closed circulation and wind estimates are 35-45 kts, then shouldn't it be classified as a TS? Or is the NHC suggesting that the satellite estimates of wind speed may be in error due to the inability to locate the center?

Another part of the discussion is interesting:

"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD."

Translation -- the NHC brought the forward speed way down beyond 96 hours so they don't have to point it at the coast yet at 120hrs. They have done that a lot over the years. I remember with Debby of 2000, they had the same 72 hr point for almost 3 days so they wouldn't have to commit to a landfall forecast.

I can imagine that the NHC guys are under some serious political pressure with this storm. Their job is not an easy one. If I were in their shoes, I'd be very cautious about taking the storm toward any point on the coast yet.

Excellent analysis WxMan - there are major political ramifications with this storm if it enters the GOM as a major hurricane...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

looks like something around 13.1 or 13.2/ 65.4 west

slow down animation and look at the last few hours especially

(if it wasn't for the banding features on the east north and west sides i may think my eyes were playing tricks on me) but it appears to me the LLC is at 13.1/.2 65.4 west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I agree. Right under the MLC total stack. If it doe's this then no earl!

[Lowpressure]

Very solid point about the pressure on the NHC to pick a landfall point. Along with all the implications surrounding such a decision.

[miamicanes177]

Interesting discussion about intensity on NHC advisory:

"SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE."

So, does this mean that there is now a requirement that a TS have TS-force winds over/near the center in order to be called a TS? If it still has a closed circulation and wind estimates are 35-45 kts, then shouldn't it be classified as a TS? Or is the NHC suggesting that the satellite estimates of wind speed may be in error due to the inability to locate the center?

Yes, we saw this with that low pressure area near florida not becoming a depression. NHC must see convection wrapped around the entire center before making any type of upgrades.

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't worry OB, your season will be in OCTOBER!!! Dont speak to soon.

[KWT]

I have to agree with others, this is either a strong tropical wave or a tropical storm, it simply can't be a tropical depression!

I suspect that come post-season they will up the winds to 35kts for the best track for this system regardless of what happens in the future because its clearly not a TD anymore.

[cpdaman]

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN
SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD."

wxman57 that has got to be the single most ridiculous thing i have ever read however at least they decided to slow it down (even though no model guidance alluded them to) instead of just forecasting it to disapear until they had a better handle

[JTD]

;As an indication of the political pressure, this is already getting top story coverage on the national cable news networks.

[Lowpressure]

I think we are seeing the center relocate under the deeper convection. recon may struggle at first to find closed system. If the bird stays there long enough, we will see a nice TS. Timing appears to be pretty good for the planes sample period.

[Bailey1777]

WXMAN57 with your job I would imagine you are under pressure to make that call soon too.

[Wx_Warrior]

Of course it is....Nearing the Katrina anniversary..WX Channel is running a Katrina Storm Story marathan...RIDICULOUS

[curtadams]

Translation -- the NHC brought the forward speed way down beyond 96 hours so they don't have to point it at the coast yet at 120hrs. They have done that a lot over the years. I remember with Debby of 2000, they had the same 72 hr point for almost 3 days so they wouldn't have to commit to a landfall forecast.

I can imagine that the NHC guys are under some serious political pressure with this storm. Their job is not an easy one. If I were in their shoes, I'd be very cautious about taking the storm toward any point on the coast yet.

Probably there shouldn't be a "black line" past 72-96 hours since it encourages misunterpretation on the part of the public. There really shouldn't be political pressure on them, though - do they really get much flack for errors 5 days out and who gives it? Are they slowing their wind probability graphs too?

[Steve]

A lot of uncertainty, but UKMET's 06z may be joining up with the other models who see a westward turn in the Gulf. I don't know, it's too far out.

Steve

[Aquawind]

Sure could use a single LLC stays stacked for a couple runs and with good initialization points.

[Lowpressure]

This appears to be one of the reach the tip of the YP canes, then it is anyones guess where he goes in the GOM. Bad case scenario because so many get hyped due to uncertainty.