Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

cinlfla · #461 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:46 am

Where is this thing exiting? it looks like it will stay a cat 1 all the way till it exits again

#462 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:46 am

Just 1-2 days ago South Florida was not even in the cone

#463 Postby **THead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:46 am

I think we're going to see alot more West in his movement shortly. Hopefully before he gets off the north coast of Cuba........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

#464 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:47 am

I know what the track is right now, but I think folks on the SW Florida coast should keep their guard up.

Thunder44 · #465 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:47 am

11AM NHC position compared to visible satellite:

#466 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:47 am

dixiebreeze wrote:I know what the track is right now, but I think folks on the SW Florida coast should keep their guard up.

anybody in the cone should watch this - Ernesto has already shown we should not follow the line....

ConvergenceZone · #467 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:48 am

wow, 2 potential landfalls with this storm now. I think it might be a cat2 on the east coast.

DESTRUCTION5 · #468 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:50 am

Who has the early 12z's ?

Thatsmrhurricane · #469 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:51 am

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Still E of track.

cpdaman · #470 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:51 am

ernesto gained .4 degrees latitude and .2 degrees longitude in last 3 hours

based on this speed and track

2pm 20.7 75.7/.8

5pm 21.0/.1 75.9/ 76.2

8pm 21.3/.5 76.1/.6 longitude will be dependant on the influence of ridge

however as long as this gains as much latitude and longitude over cuba it will emege by 8 pm tonite

is it forecast to slow down near south florida or spped up in reaction to the ridge ?

#471 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:51 am

anybody else as impressed as me with how this convection has maintained and even expanded and deepened while the center is over cuba??? :eek:

cinlfla · #472 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:51 am

Eyes2theSkies · #473 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:51 am

Living in Massachusetts, I got hit by Hurricane Gloria, then Bob. Moved to Florida shortly thereafter. I lived in three different areas of Florida, Largo, Hobe Sound, and Orlando. I've been through TS Jerry, Erin, & Hurricanes Irene, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, with near misses by Georges and Floyd. I just moved to NC in July. Here we go again! If only Jim Cantore had my luck...

bucman1 · #474 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:53 am

Why do you feel it will move west?

ConvergenceZone · #475 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:55 am

regardless how strong this is, there is going to be some SERIOUS flooding from this by the time this is done with. It isn't moving quick enough to avoid that from happening.

DESTRUCTION5 · #476 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:56 am

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Still E of track.

GFDL says Mich..LMAO

cpdaman · #477 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:56 am

gator cane the convection has for the most part however where the center is the convection has gone to crap 20.3 75.7

ConvergenceZone · #478 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:57 am

the BAMD is on crack, lol

#479 Postby **THead** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:57 am

bucman1 wrote:Why do you feel it will move west?

Just looking at the flow ahead of Ernie. I'm actually agreeing with the NHC forecast, it has a jog west in the near-term. Just hoping the trend is our friend though, and the track keeps moving east. Sorry Bahamians.

Jim Hughes · #480 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:59 am

gatorcane wrote:Just 1-2 days ago South Florida was not even in the cone

That's because the models and forecasters do not use space weather variables. Forum policy prohibits me from giving out a URL to another forum and my time is very limited right now to write up a discussion but the forum regulars from last year know very well about my theories regarding the relationship between ATL storms and the solar wind speed and the presence of coronal holes ( Storms shift north and east of forecasts)

A search from last season's threads would explain things more clearly. I spoke about this relationship once again very early yesterday morning at another place that is frequented by many MET's and I said that the storm track would favor the eastern side of the cone and it has. This has occurred time and time again over the years.

Rita's track comes to mind from last year. And a Storm2k search would verify how I forecast a Louisiana landfall while she was well out in the GOM while the experts were forecasting a landfall in the vicinity of Houston Texas.

A good rule of thumb. Troughs/cold fronts are more frequent during certain coronal holes and ridges tend to be weaker. A western track scenario for Ernesto was a bad call. Plain and simple.

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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