Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

['CaneFreak]

none of the above...LOL..

[Aric Dunn]

only time will tell ..

[Nimbus]

I think WXman57's wife has him out cleaning up the porch, when he gets back he may not be limiting his forecast to rain in Texas.

Lots of possible scenarios especially if that front digs and lingers.

[Berwick Bay]

The Carib Wave is now south of the East Cuban Coast, near Guantanamo Bay. Some storms firing in the area. I will be looking just a little further west (south of the Central Cuban Coast) during the next 5-7 days. July 26-29 at about 21N and 79W. The ULL which had occupied the region is being stretched and elongated by the oncoming trough from the continent. This means shear from this area south of Cuba and heading out over DR and east of the Bahamas. However, as the continental trough digs further south, I think that shearing conditions will tend to focus in the eastern (Bahamas area) while conditions south of Cuba may become a little more conducive for development (5-7 days). Think that the energy provided by the entrance of the Wave may stick around and have a chance at organization in a few days. Of course I admit, I called this area for development a week or so ago, so I am "pulling for this scenario".

[Aric Dunn]

The Carib Wave is now south of the East Cuban Coast, near Guantanamo Bay. Some storms firing in the area. I will be looking just a little further west (south of the Central Cuban Coast) during the next 5-7 days. July 26-29 at about 21N and 79W. The ULL which had occupied the region is being stretched and elongated by the oncoming trough from the continent. This means shear from this area south of Cuba and heading out over DR and east of the Bahamas. However, as the continental trough digs further south, I think that shearing conditions will tend to focus in the eastern (Bahamas area) while conditions south of Cuba may become a little more conducive for development (5-7 days). Think that the energy provided by the entrance of the Wave may stick around and have a chance at organization in a few days. Of course I admit, I called this area for development a week or so ago, so I am "pulling for this scenario".

by that time 2 more wave will have pasted through that area..

[tailgater]

This mid level rotation( east of Nicaragua) is about all there is in the Basin to follow IMHO. Should start to refire soon .

[Berwick Bay]

Berwick Bay wrote:
The Carib Wave is now south of the East Cuban Coast, near Guantanamo Bay. Some storms firing in the area. I will be looking just a little further west (south of the Central Cuban Coast) during the next 5-7 days. July 26-29 at about 21N and 79W. The ULL which had occupied the region is being stretched and elongated by the oncoming trough from the continent. This means shear from this area south of Cuba and heading out over DR and east of the Bahamas. However, as the continental trough digs further south, I think that shearing conditions will tend to focus in the eastern (Bahamas area) while conditions south of Cuba may become a little more conducive for development (5-7 days). Think that the energy provided by the entrance of the Wave may stick around and have a chance at organization in a few days. Of course I admit, I called this area for development a week or so ago, so I am "pulling for this scenario".


by that time 2 more wave will have pasted through that area..

Yes Aric, that may very well be the case. What I try to do is to pick a specific time and place about 10-14 days in advance where I think cyclogenesis may occur. I post it, so that I can't hem-haw or fudge about it. Then I wait. In this case, the present wave gave me hope as it flared in the E Carib. But even then I knew that it might not be "the one". But as the time and place approach, I look for particulars which might make the prophecy of cyclogenesis at that point in time materialize. It worked with Barry, not so with a forecast I made for the W Gulf in June. Of course its not scientfic. I'm trying to work on something more intuitive. If I can hit 50% or so, it would be really incredible. The only way that I can do this is to use this board, to make public calls which risk either great success or humiliation (as in the June forecast for the Gulf).

[vaffie]

Good work Berwick Bay. I'm with you. There's a very distinct circulation visible on satellite for the low off the coast of Nicaragua that came off Colombia with distinct feeder bands to the north and west of the center, and storms are refiring rapidly now after dwindling this evening. The center I would estimate to be at 13N, 80W. It appears to be moving NW or WNW--it's hard to tell with only a few frames. The pressures in it's vicinity (at 10N, 80W) are the lowest anywhere in the Caribbean at 1012 mb. Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, where it's roughly heading towards is also at 1012 mb, with a light east wind--it will be interesting also to see what it's reporting tomorrow. http://www.rssweather.com/icao/MNPC/wx.php
Judging by it's satellite presentation it has a lot of potential--it might not even need to merge with the other wave to develop--we'll see what the NHC says about it tomorrow.

[Cyclone1]

Are we looking at the same Caribbean? I see a few small thunderstorms, maybe a very weak rotation. Eh, I'm not throwing anything out, but I really don't see anything forming from this. But I like being proven wrong.

[harmclan]

Good work Berwick Bay. I'm with you. There's a very distinct circulation visible on satellite for the low off the coast of Nicaragua that came off Colombia with distinct feeder bands to the north and west of the center, and storms are refiring rapidly now after dwindling this evening. The center I would estimate to be at 13N, 80W. It appears to be moving NW or WNW--it's hard to tell with only a few frames. The pressures in it's vicinity (at 10N, 80W) are the lowest anywhere in the Caribbean at 1012 mb. Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, where it's roughly heading towards is also at 1012 mb, with a light east wind--it will be interesting also to see what it's reporting tomorrow. http://www.rssweather.com/icao/MNPC/wx.php
Judging by it's satellite presentation it has a lot of potential--it might not even need to merge with the other wave to develop--we'll see what the NHC says about it tomorrow.

This area is actually moving west and will continue so into Central America later today. Shear is around 20 knots with a ridge north of the area. An upper-level low (increasingly weak) is centered in the southeast GOM around 22N and 88W creating southwesterly flow over the northeast Caribbean.

Any present activity will be to the north, either with the extratropical low developing off the Carolina coast (nothing tropical in nature is expected due to the high shear and colder SSTs) or with the best chance being the convection associated with the broken wave providing moisture for the upper-level low around 30N and 67W.

[Nimbus]

I think the GFS is going to migrate right with the southern part of the wave forming a low east of Belize and track it over the Yucatan. If Berwick Bay can out predict the 48 hour GFS by such a wide margin I will be impressed.

[windstorm99]

Nothing significant to worry about in the tropical atlantic today and looks to stay that way atleast through the next couple of days.

Recon will likely not fly out to investigate the area of the eastcoast.

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[alan1961]

yes this little blob just exiting South America and forecast by the NAM model to move up towards the Yucatan could be interesting if it can flare up enough..something to watch though

the blob.. yeah there is one.. but the tropical wave that is in the area.. will be the feature at the surface to get things going.. i think.. but yeah its something to watch.. even though it is the NAM

looks like its aquired a pair of boobs as well this morning

[alan1961]

yes this little blob just exiting South America and forecast by the NAM model to move up towards the Yucatan could be interesting if it can flare up enough..something to watch though

the blob.. yeah there is one.. but the tropical wave that is in the area.. will be the feature at the surface to get things going.. i think.. but yeah its something to watch.. even though it is the NAM

looks like its aquired a pair of boobs as well this morning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[vaffie]

From the 8AM DISCUSSION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE MONDAY MORNING.

[vaffie]

A ship just to the east of the convective blob east of Nicaragua reported a 1009 mb pressure and 19 knot winds two hours ago.

22/12 9VDN3 14.8 -79.3 30.0 090 19 1009.0 0.0 9VDN3

[tailgater]

A ship just to the east of the convective blob east of Nicaragua reported a 1009 mb pressure and 19 knot winds two hours ago.

22/12 9VDN3 14.8 -79.3 30.0 090 19 1009.0 0.0 9VDN3

That's a little low even for that region. I 'm thinking it wil lstart to spin up a little in the GOH( near the Belize coast) but shear will keep it from deleveoping until it gets into the GOM then? Probably runs into NE mexico before TD status.

[Sanibel]

Common sense says all 1009 needs to do is touch favorablility and it will develop. What this is telling you is the basin is unfavorable because it fails to develop 1009 west of Jamaica.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

even the nam as stopped developing it.. i would not put to much faith in it.. but still needs to be watched..