GFS continues to develop African wave

[sevenleft]

48 hours

1000 mbs

That is impressive as it exits..no hesitation..lol Consecutive runs as well..

Paul,I dont think this will develop as quickly as GFS is showing but time will tell how all evolves.

The more important thing is the track.

[Stormcenter]

My prediction for this run is another powerhouse hurricane in the GOM. The GFS is getting a better handle on it hour by hour so look for this GOM trend to become entrenched.

Well if you are that good then can you tell me what the winning
lotto numbers are for tomorrow night.
Seriously though way too early to call for something that is not
even there yet.

[Blown Away]

Luis, this may be on your door step.

[Aquawind]

I am with ya Luis.. That is a bit much and besides there is NO HURRY for the NHC to make a call and little factual data...so its the sattelite data that will have to be inconclusive.. well a few obs possible.. We always have to have some good solid data.. well we do..

[wxman57]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs. 11.7N/36.2W. Of course, I fully expect the GFS to pick many landfall points over the next 7-10 days. I feel pretty good that the 18Z GFS put it into the upper TX coast August 23rd. What are the odds of the GFS being right 2 weeks out?

[sevenleft]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs. 11.7N/36.2W. Of course, I fully expect the GFS to pick many landfall points over the next 7-10 days. I feel pretty good that the 18Z GFS put it into the upper TX coast August 23rd. What are the odds of the GFS being right 2 weeks out?

I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to slam the system into a plethora of major cities over the next several (dozen) runs.

[Aquawind]

LOL.. Hopefully your biking on the 23rd..

[cycloneye]

72 hours

1004 mbs

[Stormcenter]

My prediction for this run is another powerhouse hurricane in the GOM. The GFS is getting a better handle on it hour by hour so look for this GOM trend to become entrenched.

You actually think it will reach the GOM, if that was to actually happen, then i will be soooooooo excited.

Excited about what $4 gasoline prices or about possibly having to evacuate?
You can have all the excitement you want but just keep it away from
my area.

[Brent]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs. 11.7N/36.2W. Of course, I fully expect the GFS to pick many landfall points over the next 7-10 days. I feel pretty good that the 18Z GFS put it into the upper TX coast August 23rd. What are the odds of the GFS being right 2 weeks out?

I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to slam the system into a plethora of major cities over the next several (dozen) runs.

It already has!

So far we've had:

New York City
Miami
New Orleans
Houston

and a fish. Not much left...

[Rainband]

I agree stormcenter

[Extremeweatherguy]

72 hours

1004 mbs

It looks less than 1004mbs to me. Right below the 1004mb symbol there is a 1003mb symbol.

[Aquawind]

Exactly Brent..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs. 11.7N/36.2W. Of course, I fully expect the GFS to pick many landfall points over the next 7-10 days. I feel pretty good that the 18Z GFS put it into the upper TX coast August 23rd. What are the odds of the GFS being right 2 weeks out?

I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to slam the system into a plethora of major cities over the next several (dozen) runs.

It already has!

So far we've had:

New York City
Miami
New Orleans
Houston

and a fish. Not much left...

That means one of those locations has to be right in the end. lol. The GFS seems to be covering all options so that it can look correct no matter what.

[miamicanes177]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs.

I thought the GFS went from 72 hours to 78 hours?

[sevenleft]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs. 11.7N/36.2W. Of course, I fully expect the GFS to pick many landfall points over the next 7-10 days. I feel pretty good that the 18Z GFS put it into the upper TX coast August 23rd. What are the odds of the GFS being right 2 weeks out?

I'm pretty sure the GFS is going to slam the system into a plethora of major cities over the next several (dozen) runs.

It already has!

So far we've had:

New York City
Miami
New Orleans
Houston

and a fish. Not much left...

The most serious part of the threat is an Andrew or Katrina type track. The Miami to GOM to <insert major gulf coast city here> track.

[punkyg]

My prediction for this run is another powerhouse hurricane in the GOM. The GFS is getting a better handle on it hour by hour so look for this GOM trend to become entrenched.

You actually think it will reach the GOM, if that was to actually happen, then i will be soooooooo excited.

Excited about what $4 gasoline prices or about possibly having to evacuate?
You can have all the excitement you want but just keep it away from
my area.

I don't have a car nor do i think i'll have to evacuate from my area and don't be so nice you can have some of the fun come to your place, then well be hurricane buddies

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Over the 40w longitud line.

[Vortex]

H-90...Due west with a strong ridge anchored to the north

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[punkyg]

90 hours

Over the 40w longitud line.

It looked weaker in the other one