Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Let's see... prior to Jamaica, the max flight level wind was 154KT while the max surface wind was 150 mph. This time around, we had flight level winds was 151KT. Unless they see something stronger... VERY unlikely it will be upgraded to category 5 in the very near future.

I agree, unless we find FL winds closer to 160. (Although I do think it was 155 mph while prior to Jamaica at that moment) They mentioned they could have upgraded it but lacked other evidence.

Right now, I think 155 mph is the actual intensity.

[Stormtrack03]

Let's see... prior to Jamaica, the max flight level wind was 154KT while the max surface wind was 150 mph. This time around, we had flight level winds was 151KT. Unless they see something stronger... VERY unlikely it will be upgraded to category 5 in the very near future.

I agree, unless we find FL winds closer to 160. (Although I do think it was 155 mph while prior to Jamaica at that moment) They mentioned they could have upgraded it but lacked other evidence.

Right now, I think 155 mph is the actual intensity.

Unless recon makes another pass at the center before they leave, I believe the 0z recon will be too late to find cat 5 winds as Dean will be too close to shore. I still feel technically it will be moved to 155 winds at 5 pm, and unofficially a cat 5.

[mf_dolphin]

There's no such thing as unofficially a CAT5. Either it is or it isn't and that call is up to the NHC and no one else.

['CaneFreak]

Let's see... prior to Jamaica, the max flight level wind was 154KT while the max surface wind was 150 mph. This time around, we had flight level winds was 151KT. Unless they see something stronger... VERY unlikely it will be upgraded to category 5 in the very near future.

I agree, unless we find FL winds closer to 160. (Although I do think it was 155 mph while prior to Jamaica at that moment) They mentioned they could have upgraded it but lacked other evidence.

Right now, I think 155 mph is the actual intensity.

What other evidence do YOU have that leads you to believe this is a CAT 5?

[CrazyC83]

155 falls within the Cat 4 range...so it would still be a Cat 4, not 5...

[CrazyC83]

Let's see... prior to Jamaica, the max flight level wind was 154KT while the max surface wind was 150 mph. This time around, we had flight level winds was 151KT. Unless they see something stronger... VERY unlikely it will be upgraded to category 5 in the very near future.

I agree, unless we find FL winds closer to 160. (Although I do think it was 155 mph while prior to Jamaica at that moment) They mentioned they could have upgraded it but lacked other evidence.

Right now, I think 155 mph is the actual intensity.

What other evidence do YOU have that leads you to believe this is a CAT 5?

At this moment, none other than that 151 kt FL which is too borderline for such a bold upgrade. I don't think it is a Cat 5.

[senorpepr]

Why is the pressure so often attached to the bottom of the message next to a 7xx group?

I'm not really sure what you mean, but following the rules of the XXAA and XXBB code (same as used in soundings)... the surface pressure is the three digits following 99.

In this case...

XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85680 23007 23524 70368 19009 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =

99918 27211 ///// = Surface pressure of 918mb. Temp 27.2°C, Dewpoint of 26.1°C. No wind data available.
00/// ///// ///// = 1000mb data unavailable (since SLP is below 1000mb)
92/// ///// ///// = 925mb data unavailable (same reason)
85680 23007 23524 = 850mb height is 680m, temp 23.0°C, dewpoint 22.3°C. Wind 235° @ 24KT
70268 19009 25009 = 700mb height is 3268m, temp 19°C, dewpoint 18.1°C, wind 250° @ 9KT

[sevenleft]

Why is the pressure so often attached to the bottom of the message next to a 7xx group?

I'm not really sure what you mean

Here is one from earlier (and most eye dropsondes have this as well)..

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200540
XXAA 70057 99176 70795 04479 99926 28013 12514 00/// ///// /////
92006 28013 ///// 85756 23608 13517 70442 16000 17014 88999 77999
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70795 04479 00926 28013 11850 23608 22710 17605
33697 15400
21212 00926 12514 11915 13519 22850 13517 33782 13014 44712 15015
55697 17514
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =

That bold always seems to coincide with the surface pressure.

[senorpepr]

Here is one from earlier (and most eye dropsondes have this as well)..

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200540
XXAA 70057 99176 70795 04479 99926 28013 12514 00/// ///// /////
92006 28013 ///// 85756 23608 13517 70442 16000 17014 88999 77999
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70795 04479 00926 28013 11850 23608 22710 17605
33697 15400
21212 00926 12514 11915 13519 22850 13517 33782 13014 44712 15015
55697 17514
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =

That bold always seems to coincide with the surface pressure.

Even in that example... the pressure is not 925mb.

XXAA 70057 99176 70795 04479 99926 28013 12514 00/// ///// /////

[sevenleft]

Here is one from earlier (and most eye dropsondes have this as well)..

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200540
XXAA 70057 99176 70795 04479 99926 28013 12514 00/// ///// /////
92006 28013 ///// 85756 23608 13517 70442 16000 17014 88999 77999
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70795 04479 00926 28013 11850 23608 22710 17605
33697 15400
21212 00926 12514 11915 13519 22850 13517 33782 13014 44712 15015
55697 17514
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =

That bold always seems to coincide with the surface pressure.

Even in that example... the pressure is not 925mb.

XXAA 70057 99176 70795 04479 99926 28013 12514 00/// ///// /////

I realize that. I can go post a whole bunch where it is the same. It's almost always the same or (maybe, within 1). Any idea why?

[senorpepr]

I realize that. I can go post a whole bunch where it is the same. It's almost always the same or (maybe, within 1). Any idea why?

Check out page 14 of http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/07/pdf/r-app-g.pdf

The 62626 group in question says: 62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722

DLM WND 23519 894722 means that the deep layer mean wind (or the average wind over the depth of the sounding) was 235° at 19KT. 894mb is the height of the bottom of this column of air. 722mb is the height of the top of this column of air. Don't use this for the surface pressure, it's just a sample core of the column.

[sevenleft]

I realize that. I can go post a whole bunch where it is the same. It's almost always the same or (maybe, within 1). Any idea why?

Check out page 14 of http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/07/pdf/r-app-g.pdf

The 62626 group in question says: 62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722

DLM WND 23519 894722 means that the deep layer mean wind (or the average wind over the depth of the sounding) was 235° at 19KT. 894mb is the height of the bottom of this column of air. 722mb is the height of the top of this column of air. Don't use this for the surface pressure, it's just a sample core of the column.

Thanks.

[mempho]

Nevermind

[fasterdisaster]

When's the next VDM from recon?

[senorpepr]

When's the next VDM from recon?

They probably have already transmitted a VDM, but with communications problems--they are not getting out.

[senorpepr]

Ahh... I spoke too soon. Three minutes after my last message, a VDM is transmitted.

916mb, concentric eyewalls.

[cycloneye]

VDM is out with 916 mbs,the lowest pressure so far in all the track of Dean.

[RL3AO]

Tied with Opal - 12th most intense cane.

[CrazyC83]

Tied with Opal - 12th most intense cane.

Also tied with Opal for the most intense not to reach Cat 5.

[CronkPSU]

this is around the area that WIlma bombed wasn't it?