Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

I personally am not writing this off at all but I 'm also not expecting a "show" as you put it once it gets in the Eastern GOM. The ingredients are not all there for a "show" now maybe
in the Western GOM (if it makes it there) but that is still way down the line. IMO

You shouldn't interpret quotes and statements in a literal manner. No one is -removed- storms toward your location. Look at the context of my statement. "Show" means "main development". It agrees with the previous statements by other posters and the professional meteorologists. Additionally, the LLC could reform further SE in the central Bahamas if the current TUTT and upper low remains in place (over the E GOM) during the next ~24-36 hours. This is a classical sheared baroclinic system. If we see a LLC relocation (very possible since the old LLC is exposed and possibly weaker), it could change the short-term and long-range outcomes. I would not be surprised if we see slow development in the Florida Straits tomorrow, and the main development will probably occur in the GOM. No one is implying a hurricane or intense system. I'm just trying to help you out here.

[Air Force Met]

Read Air Force Met's recent analyses. The upper low would initially aid the system, thus enhancing convection and a LLC via baroclinic processes (strong UL divergence). Currently, the upper low is moving away from 93L, and it is providing higher shear while low-level convergence decreases in recent hours. The vast majority of data supported the current decrease in terms of convection. People lifted their hopes too high - look back at Normandy's earlier post. The transition to a subtropical and (eventually) possible tropical entity will be a slow process.

-Miami

Yep...and as I spoke about last night...it would get a boost...and then have to contend with a bunch of shear as it nears the ULL. People are getting geeked up (don't know of any other term...sorry) about less than 10 kts of shear in 36 hours shown on SHIPS...but failing to actually look at a chart and realize that the reason it is less than 10 kts is because it is moving under the upper low.

And I'm sure we don't need a lesson on how being under a cold core upper low is not the best place to be for tropical development if you are a struggling sfc low.

[JonathanBelles]

This is what I am seeing:

[ROCK]

This is what I am seeing:

WX57 had it a little further south but yes in that general area.

[Cyclone1]

This is what I am seeing:

I agree totally, you beat me to the post actually.

[cycloneye]

And the latest position by the tropical models is good in relation to yours fact.

LATCUR = 25.4N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much to see, organization wise, satellite or radar.

But we weren't really expecting anything on a Tuesday, were we?

Well, assuming SHIP and GFDL have a good handle on the intensification trends, but were initialized with a tropical depression that doesn't actually exist yet, if it is a Louisiana landfall about Saturday, shouldn't be more than a Cat 1, I'd think.


Of course, for those still in FEMA trailers, I saw the pictures in the Humberto photo thread, and a Cat 1 is enough.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, it seems it won't develop until it gets into the GOM. I don't see anything happening significantly with the system until it passes Florida. I expect it will become a tropical storm and a hurricane before it reaches land somewhere along the Gulf Coast...where that is, I have no clue. I can't tell anything about these things until they have a closed center. As far as New Orleans, as long as it is Cat. 2 or lower, I'm cool. Other than that...I'll leave until the system passes. But, it is wayyy too early to tell what's going to happen. We've got time..plenty of time to watch.

[Ptarmigan]

I guess anything is possible, but it is getting awfully late in September for Texas. Maybe near he Sabine River, we are close to the time of Rita. And we've had a good front a couple of days ago. Didn't drop temps much, still close to daytime highs near 90ºF (32ºC), but cool in the morning and comfortable humidity.


Of course, 1949 had a hurricane on October 3rd near Freeport, TX, and minimal Cat 1 Jerry was a Texas October storm. So it wouldn't be the Sun rising in the West kinda weirod.


But I, in my uneducated opinion, feel like this lands in Louisiana. But since the models keep it going WNW to NW 1) some weather probably gets to Texas, at least Northeast Texas and 2) if the center forms up South of where expected, or doesn't come quite as North as expected early on, it would be interesting.

I remember Jerry in 1989. It was a small hurricane. October 1949 hurricane was also a heavy rain event. October 1949 is one the wettest months on record for Houston. I think it will most likely develop in GOM.

[Stormcenter]

Well, it seems it won't develop until it gets into the GOM. I don't see anything happening significantly with the system until it passes Florida. I expect it will become a tropical storm and a hurricane before it reaches land somewhere along the Gulf Coast...where that is, I have no clue. I can't tell anything about these things until they have a closed center. As far as New Orleans, as long as it is Cat. 2 or lower, I'm cool. Other than that...I'll leave until the system passes. But, it is wayyy too early to tell what's going to happen. We've got time..plenty of time to watch.

It's nice to hear you feel comfortable with a Cat.2 hurricane. Somehow I don't think
your neighbors in SE La. feel the same way as you. Fortunately I don't think at the moment they will have to deal with that. IMO

['CaneFreak]

Surprised no-one mentioned this:

18/2345 UTC 25.3N 78.8W ST1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

not that it really matters but...

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, it seems it won't develop until it gets into the GOM. I don't see anything happening significantly with the system until it passes Florida. I expect it will become a tropical storm and a hurricane before it reaches land somewhere along the Gulf Coast...where that is, I have no clue. I can't tell anything about these things until they have a closed center. As far as New Orleans, as long as it is Cat. 2 or lower, I'm cool. Other than that...I'll leave until the system passes. But, it is wayyy too early to tell what's going to happen. We've got time..plenty of time to watch.

It's nice to hear you feel comfortable with a Cat.2 hurricane. Somehow I don't think
your neighbors in SE La. feel the same way as you. Fortunately I don't think at the moment they will have to deal with that. IMO

All of my friends will stay...we won't even have a mandatory evacuation in the City unless it is a three. They've already stated that....I'd certainly rather it not come. I'm not in the mood for the incovenience and alot of people are working on homes right now, obviously. I have zero concern for the city flooding...no matter what happens. It seems from watching the news and reading the paper this Summer they've got the levees pretty fortified and the floodwalls are all in place and working fine so there will be no stormsurge, whatsover, in any of the canals that enter New Orleans. But, if it comes, it comes....nothing I can do or anyone else, for that matter. It's getting kinda late in the season for a monster storm, though.

[Stormcenter]

Heck the upper low looks more impressive then 93L.
If I didn't know any better I think that was it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

Heck the upper low looks more impressive then 93L.
If I didn't know any better I think that was it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Phew....it does, but look how fast it's moving away from the coast. Now you got me going check WV.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

check out the pressure increase, 26n

it looks like if the ULL stays healthy, TX "big" may be in for some wind, and the WV shows an Eastward shift to the convection for sure.

[Sal Collaziano]

Any thoughts on when this storm might be causing high winds in the Wellington/West Palm Beach area? I'm thinking we should see some tropical storm force winds. No? It's been windy all day here in Wellington, which is unusual..

[Stormcenter]

Didn't some of the models have this coming out into GOM like the upper low is now and then transitioning into a warm core system as it crossed the GOM to begin with several days ago?

[TSmith274]

It's getting kinda late in the season for a monster storm, though.

Come on now. That just isn't true.

[PTrackerLA]

I really don't see much in the way of a low-level circulation. Convection has greatly diminished...who knows maybe nothing will come out of this after all. (wishful thinking I remember well what pre-Humberto looked like)

[Jagno]

It's getting kinda late in the season for a monster storm, though.

Come on now. That just isn't true.

Excuse me, remember Rita on September 24th??????? Not monster but definitely major.