ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

lets put it this way. if it does not start moving northerly at a decent clip in lets say the next 6 hours... count on the models to start changing. because it wont make it far enough north for the short wave to pick it up.

It does look like it's pretty close to the NHC track, last few frames looked like a NW wobble, probably overall WNW movement.

you do realize the last 2 VDM were basically on top each other meaning its pretty much stalled ... which was not forecast by any model. it is actually south of the 18z position. not a lot but its also not moving as of late. it cant sit here to long or things will change.

[bexar]

does any of the models recently call for a much more unfavorable environment for Irene? looks like most models failed to forecast the shear which is currently affecting it, probably too bullish on intensity. However, I think Major hurricane status now seems unlikely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CronkPSU]

LOL I love this board...the storm slows own and one camp makes a convincing argument that the models will be thrown into chaos and will miss the shortwaves and probably drift west for a while...then another makes an equally convincing argument that surely this slowdown means it will be picked up quicker, make the north turn now and may miss the us entirely...

oh and then there are the wise disclaimerists who know that the NHC is probably right and everyone needs to just chill...

i,of course, am from florida and expect a cat 5 near us on Friday

[JC380]

What can Southern Maryland expect from Irene? Is the storm gonna be worse than Isabel and should I consider evacuating?

[Canelaw99]

you do realize the last 2 VDM were basically on top each other meaning its pretty much stalled ... which was not forecast by any model. it is actually south of the 18z position. not a lot but its also not moving as of late. it cant sit here to long or things will change.

How much time elapsed between the 2 VDMs?

[Aric Dunn]

LOL I love this board...the storm slows own and one camp makes a convincing argument that the models will be thrown into chaos and will miss the shortwaves and probably drift west for a while...then another makes an equally convincing argument that surely this slowdown means it will be picked up quicker, make the north turn now and may miss the us entirely...

oh and then there are the wise disclaimerists who know that the NHC is probably right and everyone needs to just chill...

i,of course, am from florida and expect a cat 5 near us on Friday

well thats what happens when they slow down to a crawl ... hard to tell what they are going to do..

[gatorcane]

Looks like maybe a slow due north wobble drift in the past couple of hours.

My guess she is intensifying and trying to go poleward. If it could only wobble right a bit, maybe it could miss the Bahamas chain to the right, and would help make it miss the United States also.

That would be a best-case scenario.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I just find it too funny that yesterday and the day before a couple people were getting derided for suggesting that this storm could recurve out to sea and that. "It just won't happen!" Now today, the majority of the models are suggesting just that.

[ozonepete]

does any of the models recently call for a much more unfavorable environment for Irene? looks like most models failed to forecast the shear which is currently affecting it, probably too bullish on intensity. However, I think Major hurricane status now seems unlikely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What data are you using that shows high shear?

[ozonepete]

I just find it too funny that yesterday and the day before a couple people were getting derided for suggesting that this storm could recurve out to sea and that. "It just won't happen!" Now today, the majority of the models are suggesting just that.

What majority of models are suggesting it's going to "recurve out to sea"? The model consensus is still pretty much what the NHC has now for the forecast track which is a hit on NC and then northward trek along the coast. How is that out to sea?

[sicktght311]

I just find it too funny that yesterday and the day before a couple people were getting derided for suggesting that this storm could recurve out to sea and that. "It just won't happen!" Now today, the majority of the models are suggesting just that.

?? None of them show an OTS solution. The major models all today have shown irene tracking off the florida cost, barreling through eastern north carolina, then due north up the mid atlantic smacking Long Island. GFS as 0z, and 12z, and just right now the euro showing the same. Watch out mid atlantic!

[bexar]

does any of the models recently call for a much more unfavorable environment for Irene? looks like most models failed to forecast the shear which is currently affecting it, probably too bullish on intensity. However, I think Major hurricane status now seems unlikely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What data are you using that shows high shear?

NHC discussion in 11 AM mentions 10-20 KT shear

[crimi481]

Not sure about Models - howver, examining the flow of low level clouds out ahead of her - sure looks like that Texas ridge may actually try steering her through the Keys?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

Was the NAM and GDFL correct ( yesterday)?
What will lift Irene north? Please show us.

[mutley]

LOL I love this board...the storm slows own and one camp makes a convincing argument that the models will be thrown into chaos and will miss the shortwaves and probably drift west for a while...then another makes an equally convincing argument that surely this slowdown means it will be picked up quicker, make the north turn now and may miss the us entirely...

oh and then there are the wise disclaimerists who know that the NHC is probably right and everyone needs to just chill...

i,of course, am from florida and expect a cat 5 near us on Friday

well thats what happens when they slow down to a crawl ... hard to tell what they are going to do..

That's when things get the most interesting, when there is a least an element of doubt involved.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I just find it too funny that yesterday and the day before a couple people were getting derided for suggesting that this storm could recurve out to sea and that. "It just won't happen!" Now today, the majority of the models are suggesting just that.

What majority of models are suggesting it's going to "recurve out to sea"? The model consensus is still pretty much what the NHC has now for the forecast track which is a hit on NC and then northward trek along the coast. How is that out to sea?

I stand corrected. Silly me for not extending the model map northward. I do see a majority of the models shifted off the east coast of North Carolina now.

[Sanibel]

The storm has an eye and now GFDL is into Hatteras.

[ozonepete]

does any of the models recently call for a much more unfavorable environment for Irene? looks like most models failed to forecast the shear which is currently affecting it, probably too bullish on intensity. However, I think Major hurricane status now seems unlikely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What data are you using that shows high shear?

NHC discussion in 11 AM mentions 10-20 KT shear

I answered that in detail earlier. That was an analysis from one university (CIMSS). So far, there's little evidence of much shear, and/or it's not influencing the stoem because it reamins pretty well stacked.

[chris_fit]

Not sure about Models - howver, examining the flow of low level clouds out ahead of her - sure looks like that Texas ridge may actually try steering her through the Keys?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

Was the NAM and GDFL correct ( yesterday)?
What will lift Irene north? Please show us.

This... Over the great lakes right now....



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[ozonepete]

I just find it too funny that yesterday and the day before a couple people were getting derided for suggesting that this storm could recurve out to sea and that. "It just won't happen!" Now today, the majority of the models are suggesting just that.

What majority of models are suggesting it's going to "recurve out to sea"? The model consensus is still pretty much what the NHC has now for the forecast track which is a hit on NC and then northward trek along the coast. How is that out to sea?

I stand corrected. Silly me for not extending the model map northward. I do see a majority of the models shifted off the east coast of North Carolina now.

They haven't. They are almost all over eastern N.C., not east of it. Which models are you looking at?

[bexar]

Irene seems to be weakening based on the latest visible