ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

I really can see the NHC adjusting the cone as far as they have to to get New Orleans into the cone, since it looks like almost all the models have moved West at least a little.

The NHC doesn't adjust the cone.
It is a set error cone and not manipulated.

[Bocadude85]

Is that Isaac center showing up on Miami long range radar?


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is that Isaac center showing up on Miami long range radar?


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

I think so, it might reach the area earlier than anticipated.

[fci]

Gust over 60 mph at NWS Miami office:


NWSMiami 61 MPH Gust at 310AM at the WFO Miami


Impressive gust for being 250+ miles to the NW of the center!!!

Where did you get that?

Pulled it off Local Storm Report section:
Local Storm Report



08/26/2012 0310 am

Sweetwater, Miami-Dade County.

Tropical storm, reported by NWS employee.


            A wind gust of around 60 mph occurred at the NWS Miami
            forecast office on fiu Campus associated with a squall in

            advance of Isaac. Wind gust estimated by 2 NWS employees.

[SFLcane]

Is that Isaac center showing up on Miami long range radar?


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

I think so, it might reach the area earlier than anticipated.

Indeed..could be past us by mid/late afternoon. Timeing has really been off if thats indeed the llc.

[TwisterFanatic]

I think the center is further south than that.

[jinftl]

Maybe if he was more organized and consolidated, the worst weather would be tighter in to the center...i have been through a handful of 60 mph tropical storm events and i don't recall seeing multiple bands over 200 miles to the nw of the center bringing in 45-60 mph wind gusts like we have seen in the last hour or so in se fla. Once the band passes, winds are maybe 20-25 mph sustained, but these squalls are extreme given this is a t.s.

Gust over 60 mph at NWS Miami office:


NWSMiami 61 MPH Gust at 310AM at the WFO Miami


Impressive gust for being 250+ miles to the NW of the center!!!

Where did you get that?

Pulled it off Local Storm Report section:
Local Storm Report



08/26/2012 0310 am

Sweetwater, Miami-Dade County.

Tropical storm, reported by NWS employee.


            A wind gust of around 60 mph occurred at the NWS Miami
            forecast office on fiu Campus associated with a squall in

            advance of Isaac. Wind gust estimated by 2 NWS employees.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I was expecting to see much more out of this at this point.

[jinftl]

Watch that 60 mph gust the NWS office saw end up being the highest we see the entire storm...

I was expecting to see much more out of this at this point.

[TwisterFanatic]

Not supposed to be over the Keys until 8PM Sunday... LONG ways to go.

[fci]

Gust over 60 mph at NWS Miami office:


NWSMiami 61 MPH Gust at 310AM at the WFO Miami


Impressive gust for being 250+ miles to the NW of the center!!!

Where did you get that?

Pulled it off Local Storm Report section:
Local Storm Report



08/26/2012 0310 am

Sweetwater, Miami-Dade County.

Tropical storm, reported by NWS employee.


            A wind gust of around 60 mph occurred at the NWS Miami
            forecast office on fiu Campus associated with a squall in

            advance of Isaac. Wind gust estimated by 2 NWS employees.[/quote][/quote]



I think these kind of gusts will be very sporadic. Looking at radar at this point the coverage is limited. I know where I am, according to "how close will it get"; I will be about 168 miles from the center at its closest point. So knock it down about 30 miles for Ft. Lauderdale. I look for these kinds of gusts in a few stronger squalls and sustained to be much lower for us.
Last night was a lot more fierce than tonight quite frankly.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Watch that 60 mph gust the NWS office saw end up being the highest we see the entire storm...

I was expecting to see much more out of this at this point.

Lol that would suck but i think that blob we see in the miami long range has some strong gusts, maybe higher than 60 mph.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

As of 4AM EDT, saved image:

[jinftl]

He's about 230 miles from Key West (was 265 miles at 2am, moving 17 mph)...he is about 13 hours away from Key West, or in time to have a few cocktails late p.m. on Duval...unless he slows down

But we are seeing 60 mph gusts 200 miles away in Miami so there is a huge circulation apparently and the bad weather could easily last until this time tomorrow, in squalls

Not supposed to be over the Keys until 8PM Sunday... LONG ways to go.

[Shuriken]

That's, uh, gettin' scary. (00z GFS-HWRF moves Isaac NW right up the delta, putting New Orleans under the right side eyewall.)

[SFLcane]

I was expecting to see much more out of this at this point.

Your not alone.. Still have not see any reports of sustain ts winds over land. Lets see what the morning brings.

[ROCK]

the west shifts are not over..IMO


just got home from the bar wirh Ivan's favorite drink (vodak and cranverries}.....ugh...lomg morning tomorrow for the ROCK!!! glad though they are following my guidance so far...

[Hurricane Alexis]

How many power outages are expected?

[jinftl]

Sporadic...i don't think the expectation is for widespread Wilma-like outages that effected 6 million.... as a fan of a/c, not disappointed if i don't lose power!

How many power outages are expected?

[ROCK]

center is hugging the coast....dont see much deviation from this track until passed the keys.......it amazing to have the models shift so much in a small amount of time. I expect more westward shifts.....