Global model runs discussion

[N2FSU]

18z GFS; 228hrs- shows first development down in BOC

[N2FSU]

LaLa Land; 18Z GFS; 384hrs- headed for Louisiana?

[BigB0882]

At least we have something to watch in this model thread. I wonder if this one will pull the old "lose it in the mid range" that some of those models love to do.

[ROCK]

GFS at 384hr is like one of us winning the lotto.... aint going to happen...unless one of you guys have hit the lotto then I stand corrected.


until the EURO / CMC starts showing something in the long range I am not biting.

[catskillfire51]

00Z at 156 hours (the 19th) storm forming in BOC and moving up the Mexican coast. atleast it's more short range

[gatorcane]

You can clearly see a tropical wave passing through the Leewards today in this Atlantic wide view IR image. I believe this is the one a few runs of the ECMWF and GFS showed developing in the BOC, but looks like models are not interested much in this wave any longer as it gets buried in the Yucatan and Mexico.

Still something to watch as it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean sea the next several days, increasing rain chances and easterly winds some for Southern Florida and the Keys early next week as it passes by to the south:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

as it gets buried in the Yucatan and Mexico.

You got that right. Whatever may or may not form in the Caribbean will be sure to get buried down in mexico. We have a early season death ridge parked right over us protecting the north gulf. While it will briefly break down some this weeken it is forecast to build right back over top of us next week. As I type we are sitting at a cool 96*.

[ROCK]

interesting the 18Z blows a TS up in the BOC in the med range....although the CMC sends it into the EPAC to develope..

the 18Z also goes as far as a bringing another system into the NGOM in the long range.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS is bringing a surge of moisture at 114hr into the Yuc.....few more frames to see if it makes it into the BOC and developes.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

These were the 18z GFS ensembles at Day 15:



00z GFS develops the BOC storm in 150 hours. Peaks as a low-end tropical storm before moving into central Mexico.

[Senobia]

These were the 18z GFS ensembles at Day 15:



00z GFS develops the BOC storm in 150 hours. Peaks as a low-end tropical storm before moving into central Mexico.

Can you explain what we're looking at in Frame (?) 14?

[cycloneye]

06z GFS run as a sub 1000 mb system in BOC at 183 hours. But ECMWF is still quiet so still no consensus.

[Alyono]

10m winds in the GFS reach about 50 KT in that system in the BOC. Looks to strike the Tampico area

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 138hrs (Note: GFS no longer shows, in the long range, a storm for the northern Gulf coast)

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 186hrs. Heads into Mexico

[cycloneye]

It seems that 12z GFS doesn't develop the BOC system as it tracks thru the Mexican coast.

[supercane4867]

12z CMC

[Ivanhater]

If this gets enough room over water, it seems like we might have something here. ...

[Alyono]

It seems that 12z GFS doesn't develop the BOC system as it tracks thru the Mexican coast.

it develops it just fine. has a large area of 30 KT winds at 10m. Shows a TS in the southern BOC

[Dean4Storms]

GFS has backed off just about completely clear thru end of month.