CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ixolib]

Hmmmm... Let's see.... I'm thinking a 24/7 web cam and still pictures would be in order!!

[senorpepr]

G-IV mission...

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 05 Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 1900Z
Latitude: 20.6°N
Longitude: 59.5°W
Location: 369 mi NNE of Roseau, Dominica
Surface: 1016 mb; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: 74°F; E (80°) @ 24 mph
1000mb height: 463 ft; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 73°F; E (80°) @ 26 mph
925mb height: 2710 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 63°F; E (85°) @ 30 mph
850mb height: 5108 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 51°F; E (90°) @ 24 mph
700mb height: 10509 ft; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 30°F; E (95°) @ 16 mph
500mb height: 19390 ft; Temp: 23°F; Dewpt: -22°F; E (85°) @ 24 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 1°F; Dewpt: -41°F; NNE (30°) @ 17 mph
300mb height: 31890 ft; Temp: -27°F; Dewpt: -69°F; NE (45°) @ 16 mph
250mb height: 35991 ft; Temp: -46°F; Dewpt: -82°F; ENE (65°) @ 9 mph
200mb height: 40814 ft; Temp: -64°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
SPL 2059N05955W 1915 MBL WND 08022 AEV 00000 DLM WND 07516
015203 WL150 08022 084 =

1016mb winds: E (80°) @ 24 mph
961mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 25 mph
930mb winds: E (85°) @ 31 mph
850mb winds: E (90°) @ 24 mph
822mb winds: E (80°) @ 20 mph
757mb winds: E (100°) @ 20 mph
639mb winds: E (85°) @ 23 mph
598mb winds: E (95°) @ 26 mph
585mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 25 mph
561mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 23 mph
490mb winds: E (85°) @ 26 mph
457mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 20 mph
418mb winds: NE (35°) @ 17 mph
368mb winds: NE (40°) @ 24 mph
345mb winds: NE (55°) @ 20 mph
327mb winds: NNE (30°) @ 21 mph
265mb winds: ENE (60°) @ 15 mph
162mb winds: SSE (150°) @ 5 mph

[caribepr]

Our thoughts and hopes are with are with you. Keep us informed as long as you can.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No 1 wants to believe the EURO because it fails to hit MEX, that's what is so sad...

The Euro is an outlier right now. Here is a look at some other models..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

..No body doesn't want to believe it (because we really do), but currently the best meterological data suggests a track north of the latest Euro run will occur.

[Aric Dunn]

what happened to all the minobs..

[Stratosphere747]

No 1 wants to believe the EURO because it fails to hit MEX, that's what is so sad...

The Euro is an outlier right now. Here is a look at some other models..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

..No body doesn't want to believe it (because we really do), but currently the best meterological data suggests a track north of the Euro run will occur.

I'd wait till you see those some models after the G4 mission and that info is ingested. There may be some surprises.

[artist]

there are none yet that I can find

[PTrackerLA]

No 1 wants to believe the EURO because it fails to hit MEX, that's what is so sad...

Well we have the GFS and EURO showing Mexico and the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET showing a US gulf hit. That's concerning.

[Steve]

>>No 1 wants to believe the EURO because it fails to hit MEX, that's what is so sad...

What? The EURO hits Mexico either twice or crosses it into the Pacific. The e-wall site doesn't go that far south (all you can see are the northern isobars). But your premise is wrong wx. The problem with the Euro is that it often turns southern tracking systems into EPAC storms. And it might be right. Sometimes that does happen. We don't know. But I already gave you my reason why I don't believe it. I love the ECMWF for mid-term synoptics in the Western Atlantic, but it's taken me to the proverbial well once too often where I have argued in favor of Texas systems that ended up hitting FL or recurving. e.g. - IT IS A KNOWN BIAS WITH THAT MODEL.

Steve

[Extremecane]

-80 cloud tops showing for first time:

[secretforecaster]

Feeder band progressing

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/radar/m ... 00_ppz.gif

Site asking for password.

[Aric Dunn]

there are none yet that I can find

they just stopped.. they were coming in till the advisories came out and have not had any since! i guess i will go to the archives maybe they will be there

[EyELeSs1]

hey abajan loving the updates. Also i hope u don't mind other ppl in the islands posting their obs in here as well. I think this may be a good idea to post island wide obs in here? What you think?

[cpdaman]

great link and great long discussion from that pro-met the only thing i notice is that the other ull along 30 46 is not moving westward like he said anymore

seems like it is slowly sinking south , so maybe it won't effect the orientation of the ridge,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[MBismyPlayground]

Abajan,
Geez, seems like just yesterday we were doing this same thing....us here in the US listening to the Carib radio station and crying for you all.... and here we go again.
Unfortunalty I have lost the link to that radio station we all listened to when you lost your power.... do you still have a link you could send this way???
My prayers are with you and all the other islanders who are quickly preparing for this storm.....Please stay safe and update us when possible....
Sending big hugs and positive thoughts your way.....

[EyELeSs1]

Feeder band progressing

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/radar/m ... 00_ppz.gif

Site asking for password.

use this link...it's free

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Wx_Warrior]

Let me correct: EURO hits MEXICO, that's why several on here don't believe it. If it's not a US strike, then some on here get depressed.

[Aric Dunn]

nope nothing there

[Scorpion]

Once the eye clears out it should be a solid Cat 3

[baitism]

It will strengthen. However, I don't think it will be RI. Alot of people throw that term around too much. I expect it too be cat2 by tonight and maybe 3 by the end of tomorrow. I would not call that RI though.