ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

It looks like the dry air that was infiltrating his west half is letting up and provided an ERC isn't happening he could have a little strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

just extrapolated its present motion with the NHC track.. if it were to start back west it has already bought itself 8 to 10 more hours over water.. the 12z position from the nhc has it over cuba but if it heading west now it would be over water that hole time except 4 hours vs. 10 if it were on the nhc track..

[ConvergenceZone]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

Bump

Perhaps not huge implications, but implications nonetheless. Even if it's only a couple of hours less time of Cuba than previously, that can make a difference on the strength....

[Vblazer]

The WNW "movement" is the wobble, gator... Ike is "adjusting" back to the average long term W movement at the end.

unless u can see into the future, theres no way to prove that because for all you know, 3 frames later it could be back to a 300 heading..

[fasterdisaster]

I don't really see how the wobble has stopped guys. The last frame is still NW of the last one to my eyes.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has fallen to 943 mB.. since the last pass of 950mb

[gatorcane]

I don't really see how the wobble has stopped guys. The last frame is still NW of the last one to my eyes.

Use this loop and hit REFRESH to get the last frame.

I see a wobble back WNW (not west though)...still WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[jinftl]

don't expect south florida to be added to cone...the cone is for landfall potential...the eye path.....but that sure doesnt mean we couldn't see peripheral effects...maybe even ts conditions.....no cone for peripheral effects though...maybe a ts watch would be approrpriate

Well, let's see if NHC puts S. Florida back in the cone. Can canes create there own "atmosphere?"

[jlauderdal]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

you mean besides missing all the mountains on the SE coast and spending less time over Cuba?

and changing the angle to the united states wherever it makes landfall, every change in direction counts no matter where it is

[ConvergenceZone]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

Bump

yeah I see a small "west" wobble in the last frame --- but I think Ike is generally moving WNW now....

needs to be closely watched.

Good point gator...I mean how do we know that the last frame depicting west movement isn't just a wobble?.....

[cycloneye]

4:15 PM EDT

[miamijaaz]

This "wobble" could potentially mean that the eye of Ike won't pass over Cuba's highest mountains. Unbelievable.

[Aric Dunn]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

Bump

yeah I see a small "west" wobble in the last frame --- but I think Ike is generally moving WNW now....

needs to be closely watched.

Good point gator...I mean how do we know that the last frame depicting west movement isn't just a wobble?.....[/quote]

did you just say the wobble was wobbling !!! lol

[gatorcane]

well assuming Ike doesn't wobble WSW, he will miss the second forecast point to the north by at least 20 miles...that much closer to the FL keys for the short-term track IMHO.

[Grease Monkey]

The WNW "movement" is the wobble, gator... Ike is "adjusting" back to the average long term W movement at the end.

Denial is the first step to acceptance.

[caneman]

That is a significant wobble - good eye. More time over water and less time over mountainous land not good. Could also change track somewhat down the road.

[cpdaman]

miami called the wobble back west 15 mintues ago

those that are looking at nhc floaters are always gonna be one or two wobbles behind faster updating sites

the thing i am not sold on is wether west is still his trajectory...looking for next wobbles

[HURAKAN]

[NEXRAD]

I noticed Ike's wobbles this afternoon and tried to find any evidence of less than expected synoptic pattern changes, but came up empty. Therefore, I conclude that the hurricane's more WNW jogs seen today were just that - temporary jogs. Recall that powerful hurricanes often have eye wobbles, so the hour to hour movement of the eye feature itself really doesn't matter too much in the longer term unless the movements prove to be persistent and mirrored in the movement of the overall convective envelope. Ike's convective mass is moving generally west, as was anticipated, though it's a little hard to discern with the convective expansions and contractions that have taken place off and on during the past several hours.

As far as NHC error cones, it would take a noteworthy shift in the NHC's 5PM forecast track to bring S. Florida back into the cone, and it would take an even more dramatic shift in the storm's future path to bring Ike close enough to South Florida to bring more than outer passing squalls to the region. While that could theoretically happen, to see such actually occur inspite of tight model clustering would be just plain shocking.

- Jay

[Vortex]

This is clearly a solid 280-285 motion the last 3 hours...