ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

2pm Updated Position.

[longhorn2004]

Depending upon whether I'm using radar or satellite, I get about 55 deg at 12 kts with radar and 51 deg at 13 kts with satellite. That points it south of Tampa Bay. Looking terrible on satellite now. Recon is finding a lot lower wind than yesterday. The dry air intrusion and weakening eyewall may keep those stronger winds elevated. Come on, dry air and shear!

The science of Hurricane formation and spin-up is fascinating. So is the decline. Is the eyewall weakening due to the sheer or dry air?

[Travorum]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

There are so many tornadoes already, insane.

Yeah figured it would get crazy when I saw that 10 hatched added last night which I've never seen for a TC and it's living up to that so far. Honestly looks 15 hatched worthy even

[longhorn2004]

There are so many tornadoes already, insane.

Yes, it is.

One of the YouTubers stated one of the reasons is that the cloud base is so low, that it does not take much spin to get them going. Am I stating that correctly?

[Zonacane]

The weakening is great news, I’m worried its too late to help reduce the storm surge.

[kevin]

ADT reports cooling cloud tops. Milton rapidly weakened to a raw T# of 3.5 roughly 1.5 hours ago with an average CDO temperature of -62.65C. However, now the CDO has cooled to -71.13C and raw T# is back up to 5.0. If recon does another pass I'm curious whether it's gonna show further weakening or stabilization compared to the previous pass.

[johngaltfla]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

Was just getting ready to post this. No bueno for Tampa.

[boxwes]

Hoping someone is dyslexic and that was supposed to be ENE @ 16mph and not NNE!

[ConvergenceZone]

St. Petersburg is reporting an ENE wind at 35 kts gusting 45 kts. That's blowing bay water out of the bay. Much better than a SW wind.

The problem is, it's going to be catastrophic for those folks south of Tampa. I saw the storm surge map and it's crazy how high it's expected to get. Also as the NHC mentioned, it's growing in size big time. surprised you haven't touched on that.

[johngaltfla]

There are so many tornadoes already, insane.

Yes, it is.

One of the YouTubers stated one of the reasons is that the cloud base is so low, that it does not take much spin to get them going. Am I stating that correctly?

Also as I was worried about a few days ago, the interaction with a cold front to the north it could mean numerous tornadoes. The local and national weather people can not even keep track of them the warnings are flying out so fast.

[johngaltfla]

Hoping someone is dyslexic and that was supposed to be ENE @ 16mph and not NNE!

30 Degrees.

That's NNE.

It's running out of real estate for a turn into Sarasota.

[CronkPSU]

Hoping someone is dyslexic and that was supposed to be ENE @ 16mph and not NNE!

No 30 degrees would be NNE…last few frames are more easterly tho so the shift probably started

[GCANE]

A very unusually large number of PDS tornado warnings issued for any hurricane.
STP has jumped to 5 around Lake O

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844076997552869839

[LARanger]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

Lake Charles LA got whacked in 2020. The 22-story tower from 1982 was wrecked and never repaired, then imploded right before the 2024-F storm.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital ... (Louisiana)

[Steve]

^^ that’s true ranger. But isn’t Lake Charles like 30-35 miles inland? I know it sits on Prien Lake but not the Gulf.

[ronjon]

There are now 12 active tornado warnings over south-central Florida.

[xironman]

Looks like the eye may pop out again now that EWRC cycle is close to finishing

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[TampaWxLurker]

Looks like the start of an east wobble on radar.