ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Perhaps people have never observed MIMIC-TPW loops until recently. They normally pulse up and down during the day, something to do with the algorithm used to generate them. They're also not real time. I suspect recon tonight will find a rapidly intensifying storm and probably close to if not already cat 3 by morning. Possibly stronger.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

winds down to 90.. and slowed down 1mph.. to 9

[HurricaneWarning92]

I dont think that was expected this morning. hmm could that influence the track in some way? just wondering.

[greels]

Welcome Lannes,

Thank you for your report on the current conditions in the Turks and Caicos which is where our home is.....while we are currently located in NE....

With what I'm reading and what is being forecast down the road towards the end of this week/weekend. it could be. perhaps a double whammy for us.

Me thinks this could be a two martini night......all be safe wherever you are!

Greels

[JtSmarts]

Posting from NHC site. Not sure if Cronk's pic had updated yet.

[otowntiger]

For those of you not being affected by this storm, check out invest 90L. Looking like it could be another big one!

Looks like it will be a fish and a half!

LOL what does that mean?

Not going to be a factor for any land masses, at least according to the models right now. Storms that re-curve without affecting land are called 'fish' around here. I added 'and a half' for emphasis.

[cpdaman]

aric

if the storms inflow from the S continues to be cut off from downsloping off hispanola like i think it will for the next 12 hours (at the speed it's moving) would a potentially WEAKER system (say 70 knots or so overnite (potentially) be more apt to move west. (as ridging temp. builds in above irene) ?

[Extratropical94]

Posting from NHC site. Not sure if Cronk's pic had updated yet.

Whoa, now that's a worst case scenario for New York.

[mf_dolphin]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[mf_dolphin]

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 232053
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT. THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR
ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS
AROUND 1830 UTC. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 20.9N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.5N 72.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.7N 74.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.2N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.0N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 34.0N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 39.0N 74.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[SouthDadeFish]

Irene just read the 5 pm advisory and she's not happy they downgraded her to a category one hurricane:



The comeback is on.

[HurrMark]

Posting from NHC site. Not sure if Cronk's pic had updated yet.

Whoa, now that's a worst case scenario for New York.

If this track holds (which it probably won't since there are still five days), it would be over Wildwood, NJ on Sunday as an 85 mph hurricane...this would make it the first direct strike on NJ since 1903.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looks like Puerto Rico is about to get another strong squall.

[RL3AO]

I will note that the best track on ATCF has been changed to show it was never at 85kts.

[fci]

The current track would not be good at all for the NE which is used to storms passing offshore and Nor'Easters.

It is still 5 days away and with the migration of the track consistently East over the last several days, it is still a pretty fair bet that this will continue and spare the NE of what now would be a real problem for many

(track does take much of North Carolina out of the direct path, at least the NC/SC border area. The center of the track has steadily moved North from FL to GA to SC to NC/SC border and now to outer banks or close to them)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PTrackerLA]

How much rain has Puerto Rico received from Irene? They are getting hammered still as we speak!

[StarmanHDB]

Looks like on the vis that Irene just took a slight step north.

[SouthDadeFish]

I will note that the best track on ATCF has been changed to show it was never at 85kts.

That's interesting. I think it is a smart move. In my opinion Irene never really was at sustained 85 knots. I think recon flew through a quick convective burst, and those winds didn't do a good job of reflecting the strength of the system as a whole. As a result, recon hasn't come close to finding those same winds although the pressure has continued to drop. (just my opinion)

[maryellen40]

Whoa, now that's a worst case scenario for New York.[/quote]

If this track holds (which it probably won't since there are still five days), it would be over Wildwood, NJ on Sunday as an 85 mph hurricane...this would make it the first direct strike on NJ since 1903.[/quote]

If it hit there,what would the effects be on NYC?

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm certainly not implying this hurricane will hit long island, or New England, but I thought those of you up that way, ( as well as others) might like to watch this hour long film when you have time. It's a documentary on the 1938 hurricane which hit long island as well as Other New England states from the south. The story is told from actual survivors of the hurricane and also plenty of live footage from before as well as the aftermath which ensued. You don't have to download it..(just click on the player and watch on your computer.)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/hurricane/player/