ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF MCALLEN
TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 430. WATCH NUMBER 430 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
745 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 431...WW 432...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN TX
TONIGHT AS ALEX MOVES SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF BRO.
00Z BRO SOUNDING AND WSR-88D NEXRAD WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF MINIATURE
SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 09045.


...WEISS

[StormTracker]

After watching these storms for so many years, it still amazes me how they start from a small area of t-storms and evolve into giant monsters in weeks, sometimes days!!! INCREDIBLE!!!

[KWT]

Looks like recon is flying into the NE quadrant next before probably going home...I'm expecting they may find winds high enough to justify upping the winds to 90kts but we shall see very soon either way.

By the way western eyewall looks like its coming ashore in N.Mexico right this moment.

Landfall probably 20-30 mins away.

[johngaltfla]

Pressure stayed at 948mbs this run though the surface wind estimated did suggest there was a bit of wind. The dropsonde will be interesting to see, I'd imagine if the surface wind is a decent estimate then we'll get a pressure of about 947mbs, maybe 946mbs...

So probably just shy of Audrey's record...recon heading out to the NE quadrant it seems after an epic flight.

That is still impressive and terrifying. I'm amazed that a hurricane of this strength could spin up in June BUT the season is young and I still predict a very active season. I just wonder if we're going to have another season with those deep Cat 5's like we recently had. God help us if we do. Good luck to everyone in NE Mexico and South Texas. Our turn is coming.

[Annie Oakley]

Did someone order a 3D close up of Alex from radar?*



*Note: Due to the distance, you are not seeing all of the precip echoes in 3D...only the echoes the radar picked up.

Bru-what a nice perspective. Very different.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the winds and locations, I would think 90 kt is a reasonable landfall estimate.

The SFMR of 85 kt in the SE quad - the weakest part - strikes me the most. If that translates by movement onto the NW quad, that would equate to about 100 kt. But I doubt it was that strong.

[drezee]

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall to occur soon

[dhweather]

I remember many years ago, waiting painfully long for the NOAA weather radio to provide updates on the tropics, whether the tropical weather outlook or advisories, and then plotting with pencil and paper.

My what technology has done for us!

[KWT]

That is still impressive and terrifying. I'm amazed that a hurricane of this strength could spin up in June BUT the season is young and I still predict a very active season. I just wonder if we're going to have another season with those deep Cat 5's like we recently had. God help us if we do. Good luck to everyone in NE Mexico and South Texas. Our turn is coming.

Immense hurricane thats for sure!

Recon found winds of 85kts at the surface in both Se and NE Quadrants, it may well be a touch stronger as Crazy said in the NW but we'll never know and so I think NHC will just hold it at 85kts for this one...heading for offical landfall soon...

Lets hope it doesn't try the same trick it did last time overland...

[jaxfladude]

I truly hope that Alex-it really does suck for those that all have to deal with Alex, I feel for them-is the worst for this season.
Prayers to all!

May all the other named TS/'Canes be "Fish" and not directly and negatively impact any landmass of any kind!
In short:
Season-cancel after Alex is no more.

[HURAKAN]

421
URNT12 KNHC 010114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 01/00:54:00Z
B. 24 deg 15 min N
097 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 973 m
D. 87 kt
E. 093 deg 7 nm
F. 202 deg 82 kt
G. 100 deg 8 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 23 C / 1507 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1201A ALEX OB 31
MAX FL WIND 107 KT N QUAD 23:37:50Z
;

[drezee]

Drop

947mb (Surface) 100° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)

Come one so close!!!

[CrazyC83]

If Dvorak shows an improvement in the last hour, they may bring it down a little more. But it looks like 947 will be the lowest found by Recon.

[jaxfladude]

No record breakers, plz!
Season looks ominous as it is already.

[KWT]

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

Bet we didn't think 7 days ago we'd have a June storm go below 28.00...

Of course recon measured a pressure of 947mbs with a wind speed of 5kts, so it maybe just about possible we do have 946mbs, depends on whether about along the scale it was and whether it was 947 upped from say 946.7 or whether it is actually a 947. something value.

[cycloneye]

Dropsonde data measured 947 mbs.

[KWT]

If Dvorak shows an improvement in the last hour, they may bring it down a little more. But it looks like 947 will be the lowest found by Recon.

Alex will probably be inland in the next hour so probably will start to only slowly weaken, though its possible with a west driving system that is strengthening its presentation into landfall you could see the system holding steady for a few hours before the system finally runs out of juice faster.

[Dick Pache]

Brownsville radar still shows eye is off shore 4 min delay and 5min update

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm