ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

If it hit there,what would the effects be on NYC?

If the right front quadrant of the storm was west of NYC, the damage could be historic. Some say half of manhattan could flood with 12 to 15 foot storm surge.

Its very difficult to get the right track into NYC but Irene seems to be one that could do it.

[JC380]

Whoa, now that's a worst case scenario for New York.

If this track holds (which it probably won't since there are still five days), it would be over Wildwood, NJ on Sunday as an 85 mph hurricane...this would make it the first direct strike on NJ since 1903.[/quote]

If it hit there,what would the effects be on NYC?[/quote]

Judging from the track and the fact that the city would be in right- front quadrant, they could potentially see hurricane force winds that could cause a situation similar to Ike in Houston in that windows are blown out and storm surge could lead to severe flooding in parts of the city such as the Financial District.

[maryellen40]

If it hit there,what would the effects be on NYC?

If the right front quadrant of the storm was west of NYC, the damage could be historic. Some say half of manhattan could flood with 12 to 15 foot storm surge.

Its very difficult to get the right track into NYC but Irene seems to be one that could do it.

I remember watching The TWC show on what could happen if a major hurricane hit NYC. They said evacs could be a major problem.

[bigdan35]

I think she will get stronger tonight I guess we will see












http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[RL3AO]

Well, recon should be interesting.

[ncweatherwizard]

NHC so much as admits that they are on the left side of guidance though. So the old adage that being at the 5-day forecast point is the best seems like it'll hold here. Once the model consensus stops shifting, they'll put their forecast down the center of the guidance envelope.

This is sort of where the cone fails because we can say--with about 95% confidence--this thing isn't going to Charleston

[afswo]

If it hit there,what would the effects be on NYC?

If the right front quadrant of the storm was west of NYC, the damage could be historic. Some say half of manhattan could flood with 12 to 15 foot storm surge.

Its very difficult to get the right track into NYC but Irene seems to be one that could do it.

I remember watching The TWC show on what could happen if a major hurricane hit NYC. They said evacs could be a major problem.

That special had a hurricane making landfall as a Cat 3 into the "bight" driving water into the rivers and Lower Manhattan. If this forecast were to stand (and that is a big if) it would come from the west. Damage, but not as bad as it could be.

[HenkL]

Dropsondes from the NOAA9 mission (0909A) at 500 hPa level (temperatures in °C):

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KWBC 232131
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 10 20110823
212130 2504N 07546W 5697 04845 0079 +012 -134 084009 010 023 002 00
212200 2503N 07544W 5699 04844 0084 +011 -169 075011 011 027 002 00
212230 2502N 07542W 5699 04842 0085 +009 -150 074010 011 023 000 00
212300 2500N 07539W 5700 04842 0093 +006 -183 066011 012 022 000 00
212330 2459N 07537W 5701 04840 0086 +010 -195 065011 011 022 000 00
212400 2458N 07535W 5699 04841 0080 +013 -212 069011 012 021 000 00
212430 2457N 07533W 5699 04841 0084 +010 -205 068012 012 022 000 00
212500 2456N 07531W 5699 04842 0084 +010 -199 068013 014 024 000 00
212530 2455N 07529W 5703 04835 0073 +014 -177 059015 015 023 001 00
212600 2454N 07527W 5702 04835 0066 +017 -160 052012 013 024 001 00
212630 2453N 07525W 5702 04835 0074 +013 -143 051012 014 025 000 00
212700 2451N 07523W 5703 04836 0082 +008 -103 052012 014 023 000 03
212730 2449N 07521W 5704 04834 0086 +008 -148 059017 019 023 000 00
212800 2447N 07520W 5701 04836 0084 +009 -198 060019 020 024 000 00
212830 2445N 07519W 5703 04834 0082 +011 -267 057019 020 023 000 00
212900 2443N 07518W 5703 04835 0081 +012 -287 052021 022 021 000 00
212930 2441N 07517W 5703 04834 0083 +010 -235 052020 021 021 000 00
213000 2439N 07516W 5700 04837 0090 +003 -097 070019 020 023 000 00
213030 2437N 07515W 5704 04832 0083 +006 -083 068020 021 023 000 00
213100 2435N 07514W 5702 04836 0079 +009 -093 068020 021 023 000 00

[BigA]

Really looks to be bursting now. May be jogging a bit more west, though almost impossible to tell with the growing CDO.

[TheBurn]

21:15Z VIS

[JC380]

If it hit there,what would the effects be on NYC?

If the right front quadrant of the storm was west of NYC, the damage could be historic. Some say half of manhattan could flood with 12 to 15 foot storm surge.

Its very difficult to get the right track into NYC but Irene seems to be one that could do it.

I remember watching The TWC show on what could happen if a major hurricane hit NYC. They said evacs could be a major problem.

It would be considering that you have to move over 8 million people in a short amount of time and the fact that most New Yorkers don't own a car of their own only makes the problem worse as the bus and subway system would be used to their breaking points and lets not forget about the homeless and/or poor people who can't afford to use buses, taxis or the subway; more than likely they we would enter into a situation where MSG is used a "shelter of last resort".

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KWBC 232141
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 11 20110823
213130 2433N 07513W 5704 04835 0087 +005 -070 067024 025 024 000 00
213200 2430N 07512W 5703 04836 0089 +002 -043 069024 025 025 000 00
213230 2428N 07511W 5704 04835 0087 +004 -049 068023 024 024 000 00
213300 2426N 07510W 5706 04834 0085 +006 -054 062024 024 022 000 00
213330 2424N 07509W 5705 04834 0093 +001 -041 058025 025 022 000 00
213400 2422N 07508W 5704 04835 0102 -004 -042 063023 023 022 000 00
213430 2420N 07507W 5706 04831 0090 +002 -053 053024 024 021 000 00
213500 2418N 07506W 5706 04830 0069 +013 -076 058019 022 022 000 00
213530 2416N 07505W 5707 04828 0062 +017 -078 051016 019 026 000 00
213600 2414N 07503W 5705 04831 0077 +008 -074 028022 026 024 001 00
213630 2412N 07502W 5707 04826 0065 +014 -073 035017 018 025 000 00
213700 2409N 07501W 5709 04821 0058 +017 -068 028019 021 024 000 00
213730 2407N 07500W 5709 04821 0073 +008 -058 026021 023 024 000 00
213800 2405N 07459W 5707 04824 0085 +001 -044 030024 025 025 000 00
213830 2403N 07458W 5708 04822 0076 +005 -039 041026 026 026 000 00
213900 2401N 07457W 5709 04819 0072 +007 -043 031025 026 026 000 00
213930 2359N 07456W 5709 04819 0065 +010 -049 028026 027 026 000 00
214000 2357N 07455W 5707 04821 0067 +009 -038 030026 027 026 000 00
214030 2355N 07454W 5707 04822 0067 +008 -024 029024 025 025 000 00
214100 2353N 07452W 5708 04820 0075 +005 -041 028020 021 024 000 00

Anyone want to do images?

[Swimdude]

So about 5 days ago, I was shocked when someone said that there was absolutely NO WAY that Irene could go out to sea.

I've noticed that since that moment, the track has shifted east with almost every advisory. We all know that if such trend continues, Irene won't be making landfall in the US. Of course, the current track would be an awful one. 50 miles to the east would be bad too. But 100 miles to the east would essentially clear the US.

Place your bets: Could this one go fish after all? (Don't base your answer on what the maps say--remember--the track showed this going straight up Florida just 5 days ago.

[gatorcane]

Loop of 5-day NHC track. Amazing how it kept shifting east and east and east and east.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[KWT]

Much further east track change and we have a VERY severe problem for NYC...

Very interesting hurricane to track.

[deltadog03]

Some told her that she is cleared for take-off..... for you aviation peeps....she cleared for take-off on runway 30R??

[TheBurn]

Another VIS perspective

[PTrackerLA]

Beautiful shot.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KWBC 232151
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 12 20110823
214130 2350N 07451W 5709 04819 0071 +006 -039 031019 019 /// /// 03
214200 2348N 07450W 5708 04818 0059 +011 -039 028019 020 /// /// 03
214230 2346N 07449W 5711 04815 0059 +013 -039 027025 026 /// /// 03
214300 2344N 07448W 5710 04817 0059 +012 -038 030027 028 /// /// 03
214330 2342N 07447W 5710 04815 0054 +016 -059 038027 027 /// /// 03
214400 2340N 07446W 5710 04815 0052 +015 -054 040025 025 /// /// 03
214430 2338N 07445W 5711 04813 0059 +013 -075 043028 028 /// /// 03
214500 2335N 07444W 5711 04811 0057 +015 -101 044024 026 /// /// 03
214530 2333N 07443W 5712 04811 0052 +018 -107 038021 021 /// /// 03
214600 2331N 07441W 5711 04813 0058 +014 -075 038022 023 026 000 00
214630 2329N 07440W 5711 04811 0057 +012 -047 038024 025 027 000 00
214700 2327N 07439W 5713 04809 0059 +011 -050 039026 026 027 000 00
214730 2325N 07438W 5713 04807 0057 +010 -045 037027 028 025 001 00
214800 2323N 07437W 5712 04805 0054 +010 -034 039027 027 025 000 00
214830 2321N 07436W 5712 04804 0044 +015 -045 039027 027 026 000 00
214900 2318N 07435W 5712 04804 0049 +013 -036 042025 026 026 000 00
214930 2316N 07434W 5712 04805 0053 +010 -026 045026 027 026 001 00
215000 2314N 07433W 5713 04804 0054 +010 -023 048027 028 027 000 00
215030 2312N 07432W 5714 04804 0050 +011 -017 047029 029 028 000 00
215100 2310N 07431W 5714 04804 0049 +011 -014 042031 032 028 000 00