ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ATCcane]

A review of the GFS runs since 06z yesterday shows the run was into the Florida panhandle. Starting with the 25/12z run the westward shift began with a landfall around AL/FL state line. At 25/18z we were at the mouth of the Mississippi and have been there and westward since. Very consistent runs from yesterdays 18z forward.

Honestly though we are in or close to the time period where the GFS should be darn near money.

[perk]

I have been saying it for days now...Euro sniffed out western solution first, we saw stalls near the coast and now we are seeing the progression..upper Texas coast better be paying attention!!!

Yeah Rock that 's four runs in a row,that's hard to ignore.The Euro showed this solution Thursday.

[tolakram]

I have been saying it for days now...Euro sniffed out western solution first, we saw stalls near the coast and now we are seeing the progression..upper Texas coast better be paying attention!!!

It's interesting, though, that the euro gave up on it. If we think the euro is good at sniffing things out, why not favor east now? I don't think there's a good answer to that question, just pondering. Euro has drifted back west once, so the 2PM run will be very interesting.

I know, thanks Captain Obvious and all.

[smw1981]

I think it needs to be pointed out (so that newbies/guests along the MS, AL and the western Florida Panhandle coasts don't see these posts and think it's not coming to them) that the GFS and other models have Isaac hitting the MS/SE LA coast, THEN trekking west towards Texas. If you are along these coasts, you should still be in high alert and prepping for the storm!

[Ntxw]

It's interesting, though, that the euro gave up on it. If we think the euro is good at sniffing things out, why not favor east now? I don't think there's a good answer to that question, just pondering. Euro has drifted back west once, so the 2PM run will be very interesting.

I know, thanks Captain Obvious and all.

I'm not sure it works the same way this time of year, but during the cold season Euro is notorious for losing things medium range only to bring back what it showed 7+ days out.

[Sabanic]

Tropical Storm ISAAC Forecast Discussion
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL
MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY
3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

[perk]

I have been saying it for days now...Euro sniffed out western solution first, we saw stalls near the coast and now we are seeing the progression..upper Texas coast better be paying attention!!!

It's interesting, though, that the euro gave up on it. If we think the euro is good at sniffing things out, why not favor east now? I don't think there's a good answer to that question, just pondering. Euro has drifted back west once, so the 2PM run will be very interesting.

I know, thanks Captain Obvious and all.

I know it's been mentioned several times about Thurdays Euro run,but the GFS showed a Texas hit in the long range last Sunday.

[sammy126]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/82 ... torm2.jpg/

wow, what a change in track....

[Jevo]

12z HWRF Initialized



12z HWRF +12 (1st CONUS landfall... yes folks the Keys are part of the US)

[Dean4Storms]

I'll have a hard time being convinced of this GFS solution unless the ECMWF breaks with it.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +24

[RL3AO]

Navy cone discussion moved to main thread.

Also remember to take out the image tags when you quote someone. All you need to do is put a space in one of the [img] tags like [ img]

[Texashawk]

Ominous signs all around for SE TEX - who would have thought 2 days ago? I know I gave up... As did most of the local Houston promets and on-air mets.

[bamajammer4eva]

RPM Model

[ROCK]

The euro will shift...the ensembles suggest this...I would be surprised if it shift to central Texas coast.....


Mods please add disclaimer....I am on iPhone hung over like a big dog and I was made to go to church.,,

Here you go Rock....lol

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[Stormlover2012]

hey rock will u post the euro ensembles

[wxwatcher1999]

The euro will shift...the ensembles suggest this...I would be surprised if it shift to central Texas coast.....


Mods please add disclaimer....I am on iPhone hung over like a big dog and I was made to go to church.,,

can you post the euro ensembles please?

[Dean4Storms]

RPM over FWB/Destin area.......

https://twitter.com/spann/status/239764 ... to/1/large


Oopps, just saw the pic above after I posted, same thing!

[Texashawk]

Actually, it's like Rita in reverse. Everyone forgets she was originally a Brownsville/NMEX storm, until the models kept shifting, and shifting, and shifting...

[sphelps8681]

Actually, it's like Rita in reverse. Everyone forgets she was originally a Brownsville/NMEX storm, until the models kept shifting, and shifting, and shifting...

Exactly what I said a couple of days ago.