Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Radar echos on a line from Waco to the LA border are really picking up

Southern parts of Waco are currently reporting a rain/sleet mix and NWS expects snow to begin there soon.

[Tireman4]

Look here. This is interesting....


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

[downsouthman1]

Radar echos on a line from Waco to the LA border are really picking up

Gatesville in Coryell just dropped to 32 under the precip shield. I'm just calling it a precip shield because their airport is only reporting Haze. But I'm assuming wet-bulbing occurred.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The radar leads me to believe that 850 frontogenesis is now occurring in CTX.

In the SPC thing im looking at, it shows quite a bit of it west of Austin/San Antonio

[WacoWx]

Radar echos on a line from Waco to the LA border are really picking up

Southern parts of Waco are currently reporting a rain/sleet mix and NWS expects snow to begin there soon.

Awesome

[Tireman4]

Radar echos on a line from Waco to the LA border are really picking up

Southern parts of Waco are currently reporting a rain/sleet mix and NWS expects snow to begin there soon.

Awesome

Well I'll be.....

[Wntrwthrguy]

Porta, when do you think activity will begin to pick up around austin?

[Longhornmaniac8]

Still waiting on the temps/precip to get to NW Austin. We're getting closer!

[downsouthman1]

Just noticed Waco has fallen to at/below freezing under the precip shield, so obviously wet-bulbing is occurring. These are rapid temp drops people!

[gboudx]

A couple updates from jeff:

***High impact winter storm event approaching region.***

Winter Storm Warning extended until noon on Friday.

Discussion:
Arctic cold front making good progress into SE TX currently with 100pm temperatures ranging from 38 at Huntsville behind the front to 64 at Angleton ahead of the front. Post frontal winds gusting to 29mph at Lufkin and 25mph at College Station. 100pm freeze line was analyzed from Midland to north of Waco to SE OK and moving SE. Upstream dewpoints over N TX have fallen into the -1’s with a 19 dewpoint at Waco. Radar is really starting to light up as moisture is being forced up and over the incoming frontal slope leading to pockets of showers and even a few heavy showers. Front will quickly push off the coast over the next 2-3 hours with strong cold air advection developing across the entire region and 40 degree temperatures pushing southward toward the coast.

Of note: it is currently 9F at Pampa, TX and 77 at McAllen, TX

P-type:
No big changes with the P-type potential everything still looks like mainly a freezing rain and sleet mixture. Could argue for more snow over our NW areas with some of the latest guidance coming in with upwards of 1-2 inches of accumulation with some possibly (about 30% of up to 4 inches of snow around Huntsville to Crockett). Continues to look like changing P-types throughout the event and multiple mixed phases which will play havoc with accumulation amounts. Point being at this point in the game is that impacts look likely regardless of the precipitation type.

Accumulation:
Models this morning look a bit wetter again especially the NAM which is really hitting the area hard with accumulation especially right across the central set of counties or along the I-10 and US 59 corridors. SREF members out of SPC also trending at bit wetter which is an average of 30 run meso scale models. I am still very much wary of the extensive amount of dry air to the north of the region (ie the very low dewpoints noted above) that could really hamper accumulation amounts but one cannot deny the model trend since yesterday afternoon has been wetter (from .05 now closer to .20). Latest updated WPC graphics now include a good part of SE TX within a slight risk area of at least .25 of an inch of ice accumulation and HPC graphics are suggesting between .10 and .30 inches of liquid across much of the region with amounts of .25 to .50 south of I-10 and W of I-45 (see below).

Regardless we are likely going to be easily into warning criteria and the warning is already out with good public messaging on impacts so we are splitting hairs some now on accumulation when essentially the impacts will be the same.

Only concern is that if we are closer to the .25 inch range we could see more power problems across the area especially given that strong winds will be ongoing all night into Friday. Wind advisory is up for the coastal counties with frequent gust to +30mph. Evaporative cooling effect of strong winds over high bridges and overpasses such as the Galveston Causeway, Fred Hartman Bridge, and any high connector ramps could result in some quicker ice formation than on more protected bridges.

Impacts:

Travel continues to look like a really big problem Friday morning with ice and possibly a thick crusty coat on almost all bridges and overpasses. Surface streets should be fine as ground warmth will keep them at or a few degrees above freezing…unless there is more sleet and snow than expected.

Again looking at the potential power issues a little closer now especially if we are closer to the .25 of an inch accumulation.

Have attached newly received briefing graphics from WFO HGX detailing the situation very well.

Will update again this evening.

Arctic boundary plowing across SE TX.

Temperatures are falling very quickly into the 30’s behind the boundary (36 at Huntsville and 39 at Conroe) versus 57 in Pearland and 66 in Bay City. Freezing line extends from near Kerrville to Hillsboro (near Waco) and is progressing southward under strong cold air advection and should be very near a College Station to Huntsville line by sunset. Onset of freezing rain continues to look likely within a few hours of sunset north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Lake Livingston, then to the US 59 corridor between midnight and 300am, and to the coast by 400-600am.

Precipitation thus far appears anchored in a WNW to ESE band from Colorado County to Wharton and Fort Bend Counties with more scattered activity northward.

Note: Airport METAR obs will be at times misleading on P-type with this event and I would not trust the observations much.

Note: Both UH and A&M will be launching upper air soundings this evening to help determine the precise temperature profile above the surface over the area.

[jerryh421]

Looks like a lot of the ISD's are going for a delay in school start time tomorrow instead of canceling.

I have checked every ISD in town and no word on closures or delays...if you have a source please share...

The ISD's around Pearland I believe have not said anything about closures or delays. I read on the news of Chambers ISD and Wharton and a few others that are delaying. I am still waiting to hear about school districts in Montgomery county. They are waiting until last minute it seems.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Hmm, looking at the HRRR Model reflectivity, I'm a bit worried that most of the wrap around stuff is sliding off to the east of Austin. Should we expect more precip to develop out to the west?

[jeff]

Latest HRRR soundings are pretty cold for SE TX. Shows CLL all below 0C by 04Z and IAH nearly frozen all the way up by 10Z. Could see a lot more sleet and snow mixed in and changeover to full snow especially north of HWY 105.

[Tireman4]

Note: Both UH and A&M will be launching upper air soundings this evening to help determine the precise temperature profile above the surface over the area.[/quote][/quote]

Thank goodness. THANK GOODNESS. This is a great thing. That has been our achilles heel in the past. The NWS sends balloons up at Lake Charles and Corpus, but not Houston....

[Cuda17]

Looks like a lot of the ISD's are going for a delay in school start time tomorrow instead of canceling.

I have checked every ISD in town and no word on closures or delays...if you have a source please share...

From KHOU...
http://www.khou.com/community/news-link/Houston-area-school-closings-delays-cancellations--241683761.html

[Portastorm]

Porta, when do you think activity will begin to pick up around austin?

Early this evening ... somewhere between 6-8 p.m.

[Houstonia]

Looks like a lot of the ISD's are going for a delay in school start time tomorrow instead of canceling.

I have checked every ISD in town and no word on closures or delays...if you have a source please share...

From KHOU...
http://www.khou.com/community/news-link/Houston-area-school-closings-delays-cancellations--241683761.html

I realize that people up north, or who are originally from up north enjoy watching us run around like chickens without heads, but we have staff that drive in from Sugar Land, Spring, Pearland, and Tomball among other places. We have receive no word other than, "take care of yourselves first". I know we've been burned, weather-wise, before. Flooding that didn't happen, hurricanes that changed direction... but I still wish they would make a decision regarding openings BEFORE 6 AM in the morning - some of our staff are already on the road by that time.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Porta, when do you think activity will begin to pick up around austin?

Early this evening ... somewhere between 6-8 p.m.

Thanks! I always get this feeling when we are so close that we are going to miss out!

[HouTXmetro]

McAllen has reached 80 Degrees, meanwhile DalHart is at 12 degrees.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont know how to use the HRRR link. Gave me fits. lol