Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Out beyond D10, GEFS and Euro EPS are in pretty good agreement that we will see a return of the STJ and wetter conditions across Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/brdvJr0/gfs-ens-uv250-npac-fh240-384-1.gif

Models appear to have done a good job of sniffing out this pattern change. The Pacific jet retraction isn't always good for cold in Texas but the Euro EPS is maintaining more of an equatorward shift and thus allowing for a bit colder look. The D10 Op Euro is close to a massive Southern Plains winter storm. The MJO looks to be slowing and losing amplitude and this should allow for more influence from the +ENSO background state. Then add in the cold air lag from the SSW and things are looking good for Texas starting around the 7th +/-. While the TPV placement was poor for the S. Plains we should see some better influences from the SSW moving forward. The SSW lag composites are pretty cold looking. The winter of our discontent may be coming to a close as Prime Time comes onto the stage.

[South Texas Storms]

Out beyond D10, GEFS and Euro EPS are in pretty good agreement that we will see a return of the STJ and wetter conditions across Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/brdvJr0/gfs-ens-uv250-npac-fh240-384-1.gif

Models appear to have done a good job of sniffing out this pattern change. The Pacific jet retraction isn't always good for cold in Texas but the Euro EPS is maintaining more of an equatorward shift and thus allowing for a bit colder look. The D10 Op Euro is close to a massive Southern Plains winter storm. The MJO looks to be slowing and losing amplitude and this should allow for more influence from the +ENSO background state. Then add in the cold air lag from the SSW and things are looking good for Texas starting around the 7th +/-. While the TPV placement was poor for the S. Plains we should see some better influences from the SSW moving forward. The SSW lag composites are pretty cold looking. The winter of our discontent may be coming to a close as Prime Time comes onto the stage.

Yep the long-range models seem to have done a pretty good job in depicting our upcoming pattern change. Looks like we may have a fun few weeks as we head into February! I think winter is far from over...

[bubba hotep]

Also of note, as we move out in time the wave spacing looks to improve allowing for better heights across the GL/NE than we have seen most of the winter. This comes courtesy of the relaxation of the TPV and a more coherent Pacific. The one thing that brothers me is that every time it looks like this might happen the semi permanent feature of lower heights across the GL reappears and crushes any system trying to come out of the SW and across TX. This has been a problem the last couple of winters, even before the stubborn TPV showed up.

[dhweather]

I must say, that FV3-GFS is surely a cold-mongering model. Here's a comparison of the 00Z FV3-GFS and current GFS for next Friday morning.

It does appear to have a bit of a cold bias. Hopefully they can resolve that in FV3 v2.0

[dhweather]

I must say, that FV3-GFS is surely a cold-mongering model. Here's a comparison of the 00Z FV3-GFS and current GFS for next Friday morning.

It does appear to have a bit of a cold bias. Hopefully they can resolve that in FV3 v2.0

[Cerlin]

I must say, that FV3-GFS is surely a cold-mongering model. Here's a comparison of the 00Z FV3-GFS and current GFS for next Friday morning.

It does appear to have a bit of a cold bias. Hopefully they can resolve that in FV3 v2.0

It seems like they tried to compensate for the overall warm bias of the GFS but went too far in the cold direction.

[Tireman4]

I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...

Walking back from the wall, sir?

[wxman57]

I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...

Walking back from the wall, sir?

I've learned that those Canadians who I forced to build the wall used sub-par materials, and they didn't build it as high as was needed.

[spencer817]

Some nice precip anomalies for NTX on week 2 of the CFS I am interested now

[orangeblood]

Some nice precip anomalies for NTX on week 2 of the CFS I am interested now

I thought you were one of many that threw in the towel on this winter ???

[spencer817]

Some nice precip anomalies for NTX on week 2 of the CFS I am interested now

I thought you were one of many that threw in the towel on this winter ???

No I just go into hiding when it isn't cooperative whatever happens happens

[Ntxw]

Very cold air moving out of Western Canada now coming into range. Looks very impressive and directed better for us. Just as cold as what happened around the Lakes but centered more west cold air damming up against the Rockies and Plains.

SE ridge effects from -PNA could drill surface cold west of the MS.

[orangeblood]

Very cold air moving out of Western Canada now coming into range. Looks very impressive and directed better for us. Just as cold as what happened around the Lakes but centered more west cold air damming up against the Rockies and Plains.

SE ridge effects from -PNA could drill surface cold west of the MS.

Cross your fingers they don't continue the progressive trend they've been showing for 3 winters in a row now!! 12Z German ICON looks very intriguing as well - Trough digging into southern Rockies with cold air drilling straight into southern plains

[Ralph's Weather]

Very cold air moving out of Western Canada now coming into range. Looks very impressive and directed better for us. Just as cold as what happened around the Lakes but centered more west cold air damming up against the Rockies and Plains.

SE ridge effects from -PNA could drill surface cold west of the MS.

Cross your fingers they don't continue the progressive trend they've been showing for 3 winters in a row now!! 12Z German ICON looks very intriguing as well - Trough digging into southern Rockies with cold air drilling straight into southern plains

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019013012/icon_z500_vort_us_59.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019013012/icon_T2m_us_59.png

That is a beautiful set of charts. Fingers crossed that we can get a storm to eject into cold air. No more relying on post frontal snow which rarely materializes.

[bubba hotep]

Some nice precip anomalies for NTX on week 2 of the CFS I am interested now

GEFS has been all over this and is typically more stable than the CFS. The only hitch was that the GEFS was too fast and too amped with the MJO but it has been correcting back towards the Euro. There will be cold air over the top, so the question isn't will we get a system, it's will the system have good timing and track?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...

Walking back from the wall, sir?

I've learned that those Canadians who I forced to build the wall used sub-par materials, and they didn't build it as high as was needed.

But did they pay for it?

[Ntxw]

GEFS and EPS showing sig drying out of the maritime continent and robust distinction/increase of the subtropical jet across the east-central Pacific. Pwats, relative to normal, will be rising the next couple of weeks.

[Tireman4]

I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...

Walking back from the wall, sir?

I've learned that those Canadians who I forced to build the wall used sub-par materials, and they didn't build it as high as was needed.

Well well well, construction grade materials...well well well...may 6 inches of snow fall upon your house young sir!!

[Cerlin]

Walking back from the wall, sir?

I've learned that those Canadians who I forced to build the wall used sub-par materials, and they didn't build it as high as was needed.

Well well well, construction grade materials...well well well...may 6 inches of snow fall upon your house young sir!!

He wouldn’t mind that. He likes the snow

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Walking back from the wall, sir?

I've learned that those Canadians who I forced to build the wall used sub-par materials, and they didn't build it as high as was needed.

Well well well, construction grade materials...well well well...may 6 inches of snow fall upon your house young sir!!

give him credit, he’s very pro snow when it’s cold. I don’t think he’d balk at 6 inches on his warm bike seat.