Texas Winter 2021-2022

[SouthernMet]

Today is the day folks. Almost nowcast time. In about 12 hours we will be watching the freeze line slowly make its way to DFW. Everyone stay safe the next few days.

Nowcasting is in full swing… Even the HRRR (which is now showing 6-10” for Tarrant county) is underdoing the current radar simulation and more importantly real time temps. The current freeze line extends from Pauls Valley, OK - Vernon, TX. 29 in OKC, 31 in Childress, lower 20’s and teens in the Panhandle… Before 5am. This is faster and colder than all guidance shows. Big implications for North tx if this cold air advection continues moving at this pace imo.

[gpsnowman]

Today is the day folks. Almost nowcast time. In about 12 hours we will be watching the freeze line slowly make its way to DFW. Everyone stay safe the next few days.

Nowcasting is in full swing… Even the HRRR (which is now showing 6-10” for Tarrant county) is underdoing the current radar simulation and more importantly real time temps. The current freeze line currently extends from Pauls Valley, OK - Vernon, TX. 29 in OKC, 31 in Childress, lower 20’s and teens in the Panhandle… Before 5am. This is faster and colder than all guidance shows. Big implications for North tx if this cold air advection continues moving at this pace imo.

Looks like OKC and Tulsa are already seeing some winter precip this early.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Just as I suspected. SA (Bexar, Comal, & Medina County) is under a Winter Weather Advisory. All of Austin Metro is under a Winter Storm Warning.
HEBs in Extreme Northern Bexar County (my neck of the woods) is in full on panic mode.
What are the implications for SA if the cold air is moving faster than anticipated?

[Iceresistance]

There is a Glaze of Ice covering the trees right now at my house, some ODOT cameras are useless because the Ice covered the Camera Screen

[Iceresistance]

3z SREF (On College of DuPage) has me in a 50-60% chance of 12 inches of snow, Mean snowfall is 9 inches for my area (And it's the 10:1 Ratio)

[Brent]

3z SREF (On College of DuPage) has me in a 50-60% chance of 12 inches of snow, Mean snowfall is 9 inches for my area (And it's the 10:1 Ratio)

Tulsa AFD this is gonna be insane. The ceiling is still very high

Forecast soundings within the heavier frontogenetically forced band of snow
show a very deep DGZ (in excess of 3000ft) in tandem with
negative omega fields. This screams very large (and wet initially)
snowflakes that will come down very hard at times by late this
evening. 1 per hour snowfall rates are expected with brief 2
per hour rates very possible late in the evening and especially
as we go into the overnight hours. This will result in rapid
snowfall accumulations starting as early as this evening.

[Iceresistance]

I-70 EB east of Kansas City is shut down due to a pileup.

[HockeyTx82]

3z SREF (On College of DuPage) has me in a 50-60% chance of 12 inches of snow, Mean snowfall is 9 inches for my area (And it's the 10:1 Ratio)

Tulsa AFD this is gonna be insane. The ceiling is still very high

Forecast soundings within the heavier frontogenetically forced band of snow
show a very deep DGZ (in excess of 3000ft) in tandem with
negative omega fields. This screams very large (and wet initially)
snowflakes that will come down very hard at times by late this
evening. 1 per hour snowfall rates are expected with brief 2
per hour rates very possible late in the evening and especially
as we go into the overnight hours. This will result in rapid
snowfall accumulations starting as early as this evening.

Negative Omega Field. We all know what happened last time this was the case.....

[Portastorm]

Winter Storm Warning here now. Okay, after seeing the 0z and 6z guidance, I’ll say a coating of close to 1/4” ice with sleet on top looks to be on the bill for tomorrow. Ugly. A good 12-hour period of precip falling at temps at/below freezing. Whatever icy crud sticks will stay until Friday. Here we go …

[rwfromkansas]

6z HRRR is still looking like a pretty quick transition. It will be quite a bit of snow if that verified. Freezing precip down in Austin early Thurs morning.

Yep, frz line moving through Metroplex b/w 10pm - Midnight. Has it all and all quite heavy

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/refc_ptype/1643781600/1643868000-cgxS8oguqdw.png

That would be like 3-6 for Dallas county and 6-10 for Tarrant. IF verified.

Edit: Collin and Denton same ballparks.

Well, I guess I didn’t understand how that AFD post would lead to more snow, but lock that freaking HRRR in. That would be about the storm of my dreams.

[snowballzzz]

39° here and dropping already in Weatherford, TX

[DW5522]

Hey guys, almost a 10+ year lurker here. I’m north of Sherman by the river and front has come through hard with a 20+mph wind and a very heavy drizzle I wasn’t expecting.

[CaptinCrunch]

Front came through about 6am in SE Tarrant, DFW may get a much bigger snow event than originally thought.

[wxman57]

The leading edge of the first front is quite diffused over Texas as of 7am. It's very shallow, not-so-cold air at the wind shift in the D-FW area. A second surge of cold air has just crossed the Red River and extends west to south of Amarillo. The two boundaries will merge later today. I see that Brent is enjoying a bit of freezing rain in Tulsa now. Should change to sleet and snow soon. Freezing temps are on schedule to reach the D-FW area after sunset. This really isn't bitterly cold Arctic air, as temps remain above-zero all the way up to North Dakota and southern Minnesota. You don't want bitterly cold air, though, if you desire winter weather, as it has little moisture. Might have a couple light freezes here in Houston. I'm glad I'm not living in D-FW. Going to be a big mess. You have until later this afternoon to park your cars and not drive until next week.

[wxman57]

Hey guys, almost a 10+ year lurker here. I’m north of Sherman by the river and front has come through hard with a 20+mph wind and a very heavy drizzle I wasn’t expecting.

That's the secondary front. The first front (through DFW) has very shallow air and it's quickly modifying. This second front will bring the deeper cold air. There may be another surge behind it.

[Tammie]

Hey guys, almost a 10+ year lurker here. I’m north of Sherman by the river and front has come through hard with a 20+mph wind and a very heavy drizzle I wasn’t expecting.

I’m in Sherman, and was shocked at the speed this cleared us. I also watched the local weather for Texoma, and they have us transitioning to freezing rain at 3:00 this afternoon. We could be in a world of hurt with this storm.

[rwfromkansas]

Evan Andrews is expecting more snow than before based on his graphics. 3-5 not far west of Tarrant.

[snowballzzz]

Models seem to be running several hours behind on the cold air and freezing line, based on what I’m looking at on the live radar. Fingers crossed for a quicker transition to sleet and snow.

[DW5522]

Hey guys, almost a 10+ year lurker here. I’m north of Sherman by the river and front has come through hard with a 20+mph wind and a very heavy drizzle I wasn’t expecting.

That's the secondary front. The first front (through DFW) has very shallow air and it's quickly modifying. This second front will bring the deeper cold air. There may be another surge behind it.

Keep it coming, the faster it cools the better. Fingers crossed for a quick transition to snow.

[Iceresistance]

Hey guys, almost a 10+ year lurker here. I’m north of Sherman by the river and front has come through hard with a 20+mph wind and a very heavy drizzle I wasn’t expecting.

That's the secondary front. The first front (through DFW) has very shallow air and it's quickly modifying. This second front will bring the deeper cold air. There may be another surge behind it.

Keep it coming, the faster it cools the better. Fingers crossed for a quick transition to snow.

Already Ice here, I've warned the school that there is a chance for Ice at 6 AM & it apparently started to Ice up at 5:30 AM