ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Slowly pulling away from Hispaniola, strengthening phase should really kick in pretty soon.

Looking pretty good now as well, expect strengthwening over the Bahamas, T&C first to feel the wrath of a strengthening Irene.

[RL3AO]

AF



415
URNT15 KNHC 232200
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 03 20110823
215000 1741N 06508W 9290 00744 0112 +220 +203 149025 025 /// /// 03
215030 1740N 06507W 9298 00739 0112 +220 +208 149024 025 /// /// 03
215100 1740N 06505W 9307 00728 0111 +220 +208 150024 024 /// /// 03
215130 1740N 06504W 9306 00728 0111 +220 +211 149024 025 /// /// 03
215200 1741N 06503W 9312 00724 0111 +220 +213 149023 024 /// /// 03
215230 1742N 06502W 9311 00726 0112 +220 +210 144024 024 /// /// 03
215300 1743N 06502W 9333 00703 0112 +220 +213 143024 025 /// /// 03
215330 1745N 06503W 9306 00729 0112 +220 +213 141023 024 /// /// 03
215400 1745N 06504W 9332 00703 0111 +220 +212 141023 023 /// /// 03
215430 1745N 06506W 9311 00722 0111 +220 +210 142022 022 /// /// 03
215500 1744N 06507W 9321 00715 0112 +219 +215 144022 022 /// /// 03
215530 1743N 06506W 9325 00712 0112 +221 +209 148022 023 /// /// 03
215600 1742N 06506W 9310 00725 0111 +221 +209 148023 024 /// /// 03
215630 1741N 06505W 9324 00713 0112 +222 +210 149024 025 /// /// 03
215700 1741N 06504W 9317 00719 0112 +216 //// 144022 023 /// /// 05
215730 1741N 06502W 9325 00711 0111 +220 +213 145023 024 /// /// 03
215800 1741N 06501W 9339 00699 0112 +220 +219 148023 024 /// /// 03
215830 1741N 06500W 9440 00599 0107 +227 +219 147024 025 /// /// 03
215900 1741N 06458W 9546 00495 0099 +233 +229 141021 022 /// /// 03
215930 1741N 06457W 9560 00481 0097 +235 +233 137021 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So about 5 days ago, I was shocked when someone said that there was absolutely NO WAY that Irene could go out to sea.

I've noticed that since that moment, the track has shifted east with almost every advisory. We all know that if such trend continues, Irene won't be making landfall in the US. Of course, the current track would be an awful one. 50 miles to the east would be bad too. But 100 miles to the east would essentially clear the US.

Place your bets: Could this one go fish after all? (Don't base your answer on what the maps say--remember--the track showed this going straight up Florida just 5 days ago.

I bet no to the fish. It already hit PR and is getting ready to hit the Bahamas. Pay up!

[HurricaneRobert]

She's ramping up.

[RL3AO]

NOAA



017
URNT15 KWBC 232201
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 13 20110823
215130 2308N 07430W 5715 04802 0048 +012 -015 039032 032 029 000 00
215200 2305N 07429W 5714 04803 0042 +015 -016 037033 033 028 000 00
215230 2303N 07428W 5716 04800 0038 +018 -018 034033 033 028 000 00
215300 2301N 07427W 5715 04802 0029 +022 -024 034032 032 028 000 00
215330 2259N 07426W 5714 04802 0028 +023 -026 034031 031 026 001 03
215400 2257N 07425W 5715 04799 0026 +023 -037 031030 031 /// /// 03
215430 2255N 07424W 5714 04800 0030 +022 -039 029029 030 /// /// 03
215500 2253N 07423W 5714 04800 0037 +017 -016 032031 031 /// /// 03
215530 2251N 07422W 5713 04801 0040 +016 -019 036033 034 /// /// 03
215600 2248N 07421W 5766 04727 0045 +018 -017 037034 034 /// /// 03
215630 2246N 07420W 5906 04534 0044 +031 -012 038034 036 /// /// 03
215700 2244N 07418W 6103 04266 0053 +041 +007 041033 034 /// /// 03
215730 2241N 07417W 6334 03959 0053 +056 +040 039032 033 /// /// 03
215800 2239N 07416W 6427 03841 0055 +063 +042 038033 034 /// /// 03
215830 2237N 07415W 6637 03575 0060 +076 +044 043031 033 /// /// 03
215900 2235N 07414W 6918 03230 0061 +097 +050 041028 029 /// /// 03
215930 2232N 07413W 7162 02939 0064 +113 +052 050026 027 /// /// 03
220000 2230N 07412W 7368 02703 0073 +120 +062 055032 034 /// /// 03
220030 2228N 07411W 7517 02533 0081 +121 +083 057037 038 /// /// 03
220100 2226N 07410W 7523 02527 0082 +119 +091 055037 038 /// /// 03


TWO recon flights active so does anyone want to help?

[ConvergenceZone]

Much further east track change and we have a VERY severe problem for NYC...

Very interesting hurricane to track.

KWT, wouldn't this be pretty weak though if it did hit NYC? because of the cooler water temperatures? Even the forecast shows that it's only forecasted to be a cat 1 by then. Plus, it's going to be racing off northeast at an incredible speed, which usually always happens.

[tropicwatch]

The models do have a pretty good concensus now but I think they might start to shift more westerly if it doesn't start to turn more to the north soon.

Tropicwatch

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

KWT, wouldn't this be pretty weak though if it did hit NYC? because of the cooler water temperatures? Even the forecast shows that it's only forecasted to be a cat 1 by then. Plus, it's going to be racing off northeast at an incredible speed, which usually always happens.

The speed actually looks a little slower then the speed you'd expect to get a decent hurricane that far north.

A cat-1 for an area not has nothad any really notable systems in the last decade would be quite a big blow...who knows though, much depends on how good the upper forcing is as it shoots off to the NNE/NE.

[theweatherwatch]

Looks like the Airforce flight is headed home already...

[RL3AO]

AF302 has aborted mission.

[MGC]

I agree that Irene should start ramping up the futher away from Haiti the hurricane gets. I am surprized Irene got as strong as it did considering how close the hurricane passed to Hispaniola...another slight shift east of the track...would not be surprized if Irene takes a track similar to Hurricane Belle in 1976.......MGC

[RL3AO]

Mission unaborted.



438
URNT15 KNHC 232210
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 04 20110823
220000 1741N 06456W 9562 00480 0097 +235 +232 137021 022 /// /// 03
220030 1741N 06454W 9554 00476 0090 +233 +233 133022 025 /// /// 03
220100 1742N 06453W 9595 00454 0095 +237 +232 140022 022 /// /// 03
220130 1742N 06452W 9768 00288 0093 +250 +237 138021 022 /// /// 03
220200 1742N 06451W 9909 00161 0090 +262 +242 137019 019 /// /// 03
220230 1742N 06449W 9816 00219 0079 +256 +238 135022 024 /// /// 03
220300 1742N 06448W 9754 00315 0104 +250 +236 139019 019 /// /// 03
220330 1741N 06448W 9703 00365 0113 +245 +235 136018 019 /// /// 03
220400 1740N 06449W 9666 00375 0106 +244 +236 137019 020 /// /// 03
220430 1740N 06450W 9705 00365 0113 +245 +235 130021 021 /// /// 03
220500 1741N 06451W 9770 00298 0106 +251 +239 133021 022 /// /// 03
220530 1742N 06450W 9934 00139 0090 +264 +242 138019 019 /// /// 03
220600 1742N 06449W 0091 ///// 0088 +274 +249 145011 014 /// /// 23
220630 1742N 06448W 9926 00147 0088 +264 +244 133019 021 /// /// 03
220700 1741N 06447W 9673 00390 0101 +242 +235 138018 019 /// /// 03
220730 1740N 06448W 9354 00676 0104 +221 +214 143021 022 /// /// 03
220800 1740N 06449W 8958 01063 0113 +201 +181 150018 019 /// /// 03
220830 1739N 06451W 8578 01433 0108 +186 +140 152015 016 /// /// 03
220900 1738N 06452W 8285 01732 0112 +166 +122 149015 016 /// /// 03
220930 1738N 06454W 8042 01988 0117 +147 +120 153014 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

[JtSmarts]

I agree that Irene should start ramping up the futher away from Haiti the hurricane gets. I am surprized Irene got as strong as it did considering how close the hurricane passed to Hispaniola...another slight shift east of the track...would not be surprized if Irene takes a track similar to Hurricane Belle in 1976.......MGC

That might end up being a great analog as far as track is concerned.

[RL3AO]

327
URNT15 KWBC 232211
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 14 20110823
220130 2224N 07409W 7515 02535 0083 +117 +094 052036 036 /// /// 03
220200 2222N 07408W 7514 02536 0083 +115 +095 051036 037 /// /// 03
220230 2220N 07407W 7512 02537 0082 +114 +099 051036 036 /// /// 03
220300 2218N 07406W 7513 02535 0082 +113 +100 050035 036 /// /// 03
220330 2216N 07405W 7513 02533 0078 +116 +100 049035 036 /// /// 03
220400 2214N 07404W 7512 02533 0075 +117 +098 049036 036 /// /// 03
220430 2212N 07403W 7511 02533 0073 +118 +096 050036 036 /// /// 03
220500 2210N 07403W 7511 02532 0071 +120 +092 051037 039 034 000 03
220530 2208N 07401W 7515 02526 0069 +121 +087 050037 039 032 000 00
220600 2207N 07359W 7515 02526 0070 +119 +090 049037 037 033 001 00
220630 2206N 07358W 7515 02526 0071 +118 +087 047038 038 034 000 00
220700 2206N 07356W 7514 02526 0070 +119 +085 047038 039 033 000 00
220730 2205N 07354W 7514 02526 0068 +119 +089 046038 038 035 000 00
220800 2204N 07352W 7517 02521 0066 +120 +087 046039 039 035 000 00
220830 2203N 07350W 7515 02523 0066 +120 +088 046039 039 035 000 00
220900 2202N 07348W 7516 02521 0064 +121 +082 048038 038 035 000 00
220930 2202N 07346W 7516 02520 0064 +121 +083 048038 038 034 000 03
221000 2201N 07345W 7517 02517 0062 +122 +078 047040 041 035 000 00
221030 2200N 07343W 7517 02518 0064 +118 +085 041039 040 037 000 00
221100 2159N 07341W 7514 02522 0058 +124 +100 044039 039 038 000 00

[RL3AO]

AF302



181
URNT15 KNHC 232220
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 05 20110823
221000 1737N 06456W 7782 02272 0111 +131 +104 165014 016 /// /// 03
221030 1736N 06457W 7512 02551 0101 +116 +071 169013 013 /// /// 03
221100 1735N 06459W 7285 02806 0095 +107 +044 167013 013 /// /// 03
221130 1735N 06501W 7025 03114 0092 +096 +021 160013 013 /// /// 03
221200 1736N 06503W 6830 03354 0096 +081 +012 157013 014 /// /// 03
221230 1737N 06504W 6611 03623 0098 +066 -001 165014 015 /// /// 03
221300 1738N 06506W 6442 03832 0095 +053 -004 166017 017 /// /// 03
221330 1739N 06508W 6306 04012 0095 +046 -028 166015 016 /// /// 03
221400 1741N 06510W 6156 04207 0096 +034 -041 164014 015 /// /// 03
221430 1742N 06512W 6014 04398 0078 +024 -062 161017 018 /// /// 03
221500 1743N 06514W 5875 04554 0057 +014 -081 166017 018 /// /// 03
221530 1744N 06516W 5743 04741 0061 +001 -104 166018 018 /// /// 03
221600 1746N 06517W 5626 04901 0072 -009 -147 163018 018 /// /// 03
221630 1747N 06519W 5509 05084 0083 -021 -148 169018 019 /// /// 03
221700 1748N 06521W 5394 05255 0245 -031 -150 168018 018 /// /// 03
221730 1749N 06523W 5281 05421 0256 -040 -165 173018 019 /// /// 03
221800 1751N 06525W 5176 05582 0265 -051 -150 176020 022 /// /// 03
221830 1752N 06527W 5079 05729 0273 -059 -127 174022 023 /// /// 03
221900 1753N 06529W 4985 05880 0283 -069 -135 178023 024 /// /// 03
221930 1755N 06531W 4894 06019 0291 -078 -100 175023 024 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Swimdude]

So about 5 days ago, I was shocked when someone said that there was absolutely NO WAY that Irene could go out to sea.

I've noticed that since that moment, the track has shifted east with almost every advisory. We all know that if such trend continues, Irene won't be making landfall in the US. Of course, the current track would be an awful one. 50 miles to the east would be bad too. But 100 miles to the east would essentially clear the US.

Place your bets: Could this one go fish after all? (Don't base your answer on what the maps say--remember--the track showed this going straight up Florida just 5 days ago.

I bet no to the fish. It already hit PR and is getting ready to hit the Bahamas. Pay up!

You're right--sorry--I used the word "fish" in the wrong way. Hope I didn't offend anyone... I meant do you think this could avoid the continental US?

[KWT]

Yeah Belle's end point may not be that much different from the looks of things.

Worth nothing this systems peak probably will be higher, I suspect category-4 is still probable and we'll see a much more impressive hurricane tomorrow morning.

[CrazyC83]

Much further east track change and we have a VERY severe problem for NYC...

Very interesting hurricane to track.

KWT, wouldn't this be pretty weak though if it did hit NYC? because of the cooler water temperatures? Even the forecast shows that it's only forecasted to be a cat 1 by then. Plus, it's going to be racing off northeast at an incredible speed, which usually always happens.

A Category 1 hurricane into NYC would still be devastating.

[dixiebreeze]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THERE IS NO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LAND AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THERE IS NO WATCH IN EFFECT ANYWHERE ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN
REEF OUT TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...NOT INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...METRO PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...
METRO MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...COASTAL BROWARD AND
COASTAL MIAMI DADE...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE
STILL A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9N...LONGITUDE 71.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 670 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FL...OR ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FL...OR ABOUT 640 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FL. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 295 DEGREES
AT 9 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 90 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH HURRICANE IRENE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THESE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE HIGH SURF...STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE BEACH EROSION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST IN CASE WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ650-651-670-671-242200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

AMZ630-FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173-242200-
/O.NEW.KMFL.HU.S.1009.110823T2159Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...HIGH SURF, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE...

...WINDS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN
EFFECT...NOR ARE THEY LIKELY UNDER PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES.

THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. AT THIS TIME...REMAIN CALM AND STAY INFORMED.

SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
IRENE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AT THE PRESENT TIME, GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

$$

SANTOS/MOLLEDA