ATL: DORIAN - Models

[vxskaxv]

Hello to all members of Storm2K,
Let me start things off firstly by apologizing for this post/thread interruption. My name is Christopher and I’m a storm/rescue responder in Galveston, Texas. I personally rescued 181 people from Dickinson to Cypress Texas during Hurricane Harvey. 7 days out in pure hell, constantly soaked. For me as a board lurker this is something that has to be said and now is this moment.
1. Everyone on here needs to 100% understand that there are outsiders lurking and reading information here to sadly use said info to make their “leave or stay” and “prep or not to prep” decisions. I personally know that this practice is not ethical but it is happening as we speak, everyday-every year. There seems to be an understanding that this is a board of nothing but scientists and pro meteorologists. So keep that in mind as to how a big portion of people see this board.
2. There is a specific board for “storm model” talk and a specific for “storm non-model discussion”, and you all need to keep it as it was intended. Please stay on topic.
3. Never ever say anyone is “in the clear” at any time, unless you you work for the NHC you do not have that authority. You have to understand that one person may come here and base your one lousy statement as fact and not look at another post and carry on in life, but yet that individual goes and tells others what he or she read. This is not acceptable verbiage. There truly are people in lower Florida as we speak that really are trying to return “Emergency Supplies” that they bought three days ago based on what they erroneously read from yesterday here. This is extremely concerning.
4. Said “rogue” statements make my job as a storm/emergency first responder very difficult. If an evacuation is ordered for a particular area I need as many as possible to leave said area. Even if I’m the end nothing transpired in said areas. I’ve heard it way too often that a family decided to ride a storm out at last minute and then got trapped and had to be rescued based off an internet board posting. But to learn this statement as I’m standing in 5 feet of septic waters in a flooded neighborhood rescuing families I get very upset at this trend. I have not built my mind and body and reinforced my rescue vehicle and spent thousands on safety gear and medical supplies and food to constantly hear these sickening comments.
5. I appreciate every poster on here wether you add something big or small to the conversation, know it’s appreciated as long as it’s valid speech.
6. To me as a first responder, anyone from North Carolina to Brownsville Texas needs to have one eye open on this current storm and always seek professional information from your local authorities and the NHC when making prep or evacuation plans.
7. Thank you all for those that read this and understand where I’m coming from. I stand ready as rescue support for here in Galveston and if needed I will travel to east coast to help there, if that time comes. Everyone stay safe and once again be mindful of the information you are presenting on here as to exactly how may people and organizations it may have an impact on. God bless you all.

[caneman]

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

no reason ? how did you come to that conclusion ?

OK, what reason is there to suspect that there will be a change in 12-24 hours?
I'm going off what I am seeing in models and what the NHC is saying but I am no Pro Met nor pretend to be at all.
But I absolutely defer to people like you who study this for a living!
So, what are you seeing that indicates that there would be a change back to a landfall in Florida?

I answered this questions above. You are making assumptions based on an 11 update that was based on model runs a few hours before. It's clear what has actually been happening in real time today. Will it mean anything in the end? Who knows.

[artist]

Everyone DOES need to take a deep breath and follow the NHC.
If they had any distinct worry that Dorian would not turn, there would be Watches or at least the mention of watches for South/Central Florida.
There are none.
There appears to be pretty good confidence here.

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

Memory is short. Remember Irma
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... e_and_wind
Hurricane Irma's projected path shifts, showing ... - cnbc.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/hurrica ... tampa.html
Sep 08, 2017 · Hurricane Irma's projected path shifts, showing greater threat to west coast of Florida Hurricane Irma is likely to strike the Florida Keys and grind directly up the west coast of Florida, according to the latest forecast from NBC. The new predicted course is bad news for Naples, Fort Myers and ...

[USTropics]

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

no reason ? how did you come to that conclusion ?

OK, what reason is there to suspect that there will be a change in 12-24 hours?
I'm going off what I am seeing in models and what the NHC is saying but I am no Pro Met nor pretend to be at all.
But I absolutely defer to people like you who study this for a living!
So, what are you seeing that indicates that there would be a change back to a landfall in Florida?

Disregarding a potential still for landfall, a slow moving system that is ~50 miles off the coast can cause significant damage (e.g. Matthew cost $3 billion, and this will be stronger than Matthew).

[fci]

That can change in 12 or 24 hours

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

Memory is short. Remember Irma
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... e_and_wind
Hurricane Irma's projected path shifts, showing ... - cnbc.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/hurrica ... tampa.html
Sep 08, 2017 · Hurricane Irma's projected path shifts, showing greater threat to west coast of Florida Hurricane Irma is likely to strike the Florida Keys and grind directly up the west coast of Florida, according to the latest forecast from NBC. The new predicted course is bad news for Naples, Fort Myers and ...

Very different circumstances and further away.
Comparing apples to grapes here, in my opinion.

[norva13x]

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

Memory is short. Remember Irma
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... e_and_wind
Hurricane Irma's projected path shifts, showing ... - cnbc.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/hurrica ... tampa.html
Sep 08, 2017 · Hurricane Irma's projected path shifts, showing greater threat to west coast of Florida Hurricane Irma is likely to strike the Florida Keys and grind directly up the west coast of Florida, according to the latest forecast from NBC. The new predicted course is bad news for Naples, Fort Myers and ...

Very different circumstances and further away.
Comparing apples to grapes here, in my opinion.

The NHC discussion every day has been about how uncertain things are, you are more confident then they are evidently.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sure.
But there is no reason to suspect that.

Just like how yesterday we were locked on to Palm Beach? But right, nothing can change.

Yes, but the further you are away the more variable the forecast.
And while we were locked into Palm Beach 2 days ago, the most reliable models showed the trend to the East and staying offshore.
NHC reacts slowly and cautiously to the models but it was quite apparent since mid-day Friday that each subsequent track was going to be further off shore.

I don't think anything about this storm has been "quite apparent". The margin of error at 3 days is more than enough to potentially put Dorian onshore in Florida. To rule it out at this point is about the equivalent of trying to wish it away. People are complacent enough about the weather in general as it is, the last thing we need is sentiments being thrown around that this decidedly won't hit the coast. I haven't seen anything from the NHC stating with that level of confidence that this will stay offshore, and I don't think we should say that until they do first.

[Duke95]

The last time the G4 flew was 30/0Z, this data from the 30/0Z is the last set of data. So there is no data sampling from the ocean in and around Dorian for a day and a half. Just something to keep in mind.

This is astounding to me given the power of this storm.

When is the next flight?

[alienstorm]

The last time the G4 flew was 30/0Z, this data from the 30/0Z is the last set of data. So there is no data sampling from the ocean in and around Dorian for a day and a half. Just something to keep in mind.

This is astounding to me given the power of this storm.

When is the next flight?

Not sure having mechanical issues

[shah83]

The big thing with the CMC is that Doriang's more connected with gulf low, first trough weaker, faster, and weakens faster, and the atlantic high is stronger. I wonder if the Euro will be more like UK or CMC...

[Evil Jeremy]

The Virgin Islands went from not being in the cone to being under a Hurricane Warning in a 24 hour span.

Let's not pretend things can't change rapidly. Doesn't mean they will.

[ronjon]

12z HMON close to the Cape.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019083112&fh=90

[viberama]

The last time the G4 flew was 30/0Z, this data from the 30/0Z is the last set of data. So there is no data sampling from the ocean in and around Dorian for a day and a half. Just something to keep in mind.

This is astounding to me given the power of this storm.

When is the next flight?

Not sure having mechanical issues

Both planes broke their windshield's I believe.

[Javlin]

Dorian is about to pass 26N 74W before 2PM though the NHC next advisory will state 10mph (avg last 6hrs) it picked up speed the ridge is either stronger or Dorian is pumping it up and remember what Levi stated about forward speed.

[hohnywx]

Carl Parker on TWC really harping on the 6Z Euro and how it came westward. Telling everyone watching that they need to remain vigilant for westward shifts.

[alienstorm]

Definity a trend more to the west and south by HWRF

[NDG]

12z HWRF, at 81 hr forecasted position, it is 84 miles WSW of previous 06z forecasted position.

[NDG]

12z GFS ensembles for whatever they are worth have shifted slightly west towards the FL east coast, by what I can tell waiting for a better update.

[ronjon]

12z HMON western eyewall rides the coast from the Cape northward.

[otowntiger]

What models currently show Florida landfall? I’m not seeing any if there are. Granted some maybe shifting west a bit but all remain off the coast correct?