ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

Looking at Recon and this NHC track ( I am not sure exactly how accurate it is but for as much as I pay it should be close) Laura is moving west of the NHC track.

[Terrace27]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-200-1-25-1&checked=latlon-map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

Wow.

Heading looks (trochoidally?) West.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like they’re heading into the eye wall

012430 2438N 08909W 7406 02509 9874 +144 //// 299057 065 065 035 05
012500 2439N 08909W 7408 02491 9858 +150 //// 297043 046 068 030 05

[aspen]

65 kt FL and SFMR winds, and a pressure of ~985 mbar despite being outside the CoC.

[NotoSans]

Latest convective burst will likely help bring winds down to the surface. Central pressure likely still falling but needs to see if wind have caught up.

The feeder band to the east also indicates favourable outflow. Given the latest convective structure, continued RI is very likely.

[cfisher]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298433218232844293

[NDG]

The southern eyewall is impressive.

012100 2423N 08909W 7514 02461 9969 +140 +128 261054 055 042 009 00
012130 2425N 08909W 7513 02457 9966 +137 +133 259057 059 043 008 00
012200 2427N 08909W 7520 02441 9958 +136 //// 260059 061 043 013 01
012230 2429N 08909W 7511 02443 9948 +137 //// 263065 068 044 015 01
012300 2432N 08909W 7514 02431 9938 +135 //// 262068 071 047 029 01
012330 2434N 08909W 7518 02412 9926 +133 //// 260063 066 057 054 01
012400 2436N 08909W 7507 02408 9895 +142 //// 271061 070 064 067 01
012430 2438N 08909W 7406 02509 9874 +144 //// 299057 065 065 035 05
012500 2439N 08909W 7408 02491 9858 +150 //// 297043 046 068 030 05

[Highteeld]

The southern eyewall is impressive.

012100 2423N 08909W 7514 02461 9969 +140 +128 261054 055 042 009 00
012130 2425N 08909W 7513 02457 9966 +137 +133 259057 059 043 008 00
012200 2427N 08909W 7520 02441 9958 +136 //// 260059 061 043 013 01
012230 2429N 08909W 7511 02443 9948 +137 //// 263065 068 044 015 01
012300 2432N 08909W 7514 02431 9938 +135 //// 262068 071 047 029 01
012330 2434N 08909W 7518 02412 9926 +133 //// 260063 066 057 054 01
012400 2436N 08909W 7507 02408 9895 +142 //// 271061 070 064 067 01
012430 2438N 08909W 7406 02509 9874 +144 //// 299057 065 065 035 05
012500 2439N 08909W 7408 02491 9858 +150 //// 297043 046 068 030 05

get some of that convection to rotate in the NE quadrant and surface winds will approach 100 mph.

[p1nheadlarry]

We've had 3 straight year of category 5 hurricanes, all of them except for Lorenzo made landfall at some point as a category 5

Matthew was Cat 4 in Haiti if I remember.

Think he’s talking about Irma and Maria of ‘17, Michael of ‘18 and Dorian of ‘19

Maria was a high-end 4 in PR as well. 155 mph. Not that it really matters at that point. But yes Irma was.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like pressure is 980mb or even sub 980mb. Pretty good drop considering the short amount of time since the last pass.

[Smurfwicked]

Sure looks like the most recent movement is moving more west with very little if any north component to it. A few hours ago it appeared to be running right of the forecast track and now it looks to me like its got a much more western component to the movement than it did earlier. May just be stair stepping or just an illusion of the presentation.

Seems early for me to be wobble watching but I got family hunkered down in Beaumont and I'm on the west side of the Galveston bay right now so I'm monitoring closely.

Been coming to this forum for many years now and I don't post much but want to thank everyone of the contributors here for all I've learned from the countless hours of reading. S2K got me safely through Rita, Ike and Harvey and fun times observing many others.

[cfisher]

Laura is outpacing HWRF intensity by quite a bit. At 03z HWRF has Laura at 986 and she's already sub 980. Has a landfall at 945mb
https://ibb.co/6vhQYfM

[JtSmarts]

At the moment, Laura is most similar (size wise) to Michael whose hurricane winds also extended out 45 miles from the center and ts winds 175 miles from the center near landfall, and a little smaller than Matthew whose hurricane force winds extended out 60 miles from center and ts winds 185 miles center near landfall.

[psyclone]

so far it's the classic, smudgey, relentlessly intensifying storm. not the most photogenic so far, but you just know lots is going on under the hood. it's just a beast of a storm. we've seen some with this look graduate to real monsters.

[HoustonFrog]

Very interesting reading y’all’s takes on west/north movements. Curious how the west movement stacks up against expectations

[eastcoastFL]

The southern eyewall is impressive.

012100 2423N 08909W 7514 02461 9969 +140 +128 261054 055 042 009 00
012130 2425N 08909W 7513 02457 9966 +137 +133 259057 059 043 008 00
012200 2427N 08909W 7520 02441 9958 +136 //// 260059 061 043 013 01
012230 2429N 08909W 7511 02443 9948 +137 //// 263065 068 044 015 01
012300 2432N 08909W 7514 02431 9938 +135 //// 262068 071 047 029 01
012330 2434N 08909W 7518 02412 9926 +133 //// 260063 066 057 054 01
012400 2436N 08909W 7507 02408 9895 +142 //// 271061 070 064 067 01
012430 2438N 08909W 7406 02509 9874 +144 //// 299057 065 065 035 05
012500 2439N 08909W 7408 02491 9858 +150 //// 297043 046 068 030 05

I was thinking the same. She’s putting together an impressive structure and wasting no time. How far SE did they go? They had steady TS winds all the way out.

[cfisher]

At the moment, Laura is most similar (size wise) to Michael whose hurricane winds also extended out 45 miles from the center and ts winds 175 miles from the center near landfall, and a little smaller than Matthew whose hurricane force winds extended out 60 miles from center and ts winds 185 miles center near landfall.

I don't follow the comparison.. are you comparing Laura's wind field to Cat 5 Michael or Cat 1 Michael?

[cfisher]

980 at 21kts....

[eastcoastFL]

Sure looks like the most recent movement is moving more west with very little if any north component to it. A few hours ago it appeared to be running right of the forecast track and now it looks to me like its got a much more western component to the movement than it did earlier. May just be stair stepping or just an illusion of the presentation.

Seems early for me to be wobble watching but I got family hunkered down in Beaumont and I'm on the west side of the Galveston bay right now so I'm monitoring closely.

Been coming to this forum for many years now and I don't post much but want to thank everyone of the contributors here for all I've learned from the countless hours of reading. S2K got me safely through Rita, Ike and Harvey and fun times observing many others.

Wobble watching is a great past time of ours. It still looks wnw to me on this view

[Highteeld]

Pressure down to around 977.9 mb, dropsonde wind-adjusted