Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

I will say this pattern is loaded for the month of February if you like more winter weather.

Yes, but I’m seeing a lot of maps on X that have the majority of the cold going towards the EC over the next few weeks. Hoping that’s wrong.

I noted a few days ago, the pattern is one for snow lovers. Lower heights will mean the atmosphere is generally below normal so the dominant -AO from Aleutian low->SPV breakdown->-AO/NAO and -EPO Pacific. It will be the second week of Feb where the pattern is very ripe for snow events. Embedded cold outbreaks won't be seen this far out due to smoothed fields.

[Brazoria979cnty]

I will say this pattern is loaded for the month of February if you like more winter weather.

Yes, but I’m seeing a lot of maps on X that have the majority of the cold going towards the EC over the next few weeks. Hoping that’s wrong.

I will say though from what I saw the EPS looked significantly better for the central U.S. compared to the GEFS for mid February.

That would be our luck

[TropicalTundra]

Already looks like the 1st batch of precip for our 2nd round is SW of San Angelo. Radar should fill in from there.

Wow that’s quick. This might be completely done before daybreak.

Main event for North Texas is between 9pm-3am tonight with final round of possible snow as the ULL ejects out between 4am-10am tomorrow morning

Apologies for saying that. I guess this is technically like a commercial break and we resume our program later in the evening

[txtwister78]

I will say this pattern is loaded for the month of February if you like more winter weather.

Twister what are your thoughts on the warm nose for NTX in the big wave tonight?

Still like a window for a changeover on the back end of precip shield. Believe NWS up there put a balloon up earlier for mostly sleet due to that warm nose but my guess as that colder and a bit more drier air above filters in at all levels with precip still ongoing you can get a changeover.

[rwfromkansas]

The final round that just came through looked pretty darn heavy. Sleet and I think some snow mixed.

After complaining earlier we doubled or likely tripled accumulation looking at the fence so that’s something.

Looks dry for now but some showers coming in a few hours it appears.

[Fifty Rock]

https://imgur.com/VVNYYS8

[Fifty Rock]

https://imgur.com/a/BH6uVxO

[dhweather]

.57" of rain in Heath, and a light dusting of sleet on flowerbeds and grass. Temps down to 25, so if we get more precip, it should be of the frozen variety.

[Fifty Rock]

https://imgur.com/a/VgA1o2F

[bubba hotep]

I meant to make this post yesterday, but I got sidetracked tracking the freezing line. People shouldn't fret when they wake up this morning, and totals were not as expected, b/c we still got a ways to go.

Reaming QPF forecast from 12z models after backing out this morning's QPF.

3k NAM



WRFs





HRRR



ETA: Wow, Oklahoma did bust big time on QPF with round 1

[Cpv17]

I will say this pattern is loaded for the month of February if you like more winter weather.

Yes, but I’m seeing a lot of maps on X that have the majority of the cold going towards the EC over the next few weeks. Hoping that’s wrong.

I will say though from what I saw the EPS looked significantly better for the central U.S. compared to the GEFS for mid February.

That would be our luck

The goal for me is always snow. You don’t always need the coldest anomalies to go directly towards you for that to happen anyway. So I’m hopeful. Like Ntxw said, the teleconnections overall look solid. Would like a bit of a SE ridge though, not gonna lie lol

[Ntxw]

I don't know how wxman57 is doing but this 20F feels hot after being in it for so long. I know Stratton would agree.

[snownado]

So TIL you can place weather forecast bets on Polymarket.

Definitely something I will keep in mind for the future...

[orangeblood]

GFS AI staying very consistent with the next storm late week (plenty UL cold). It's Op is all over the place, very inconsistent

[TomballEd]

0.64 inches of much appreciated cold rain at IAH, about 5 miles away. Down to 46F. HGX at my house adding up the 0.1 to 0.2 inches FZRA tonight and 0.1 to 0.3 tomorrow morning (forecast disco, they are following coldest guidance). 0.2 inches is enough to get surface streets quite dangerous. Max both periods totalling 0.5 inches would start affecting trees and powerlines. My gut looking at the mesos, especially the HRRR from 12Z (and a check on the 15Z) is that about a tenth of ice to as much as two tenths will fall on my yard. The Houston/Harris County advice of staying off the roads if possible is quite sound.

44F now at the airport. Down 2F in an hour.

I am nowhere near sold on next weekend. Not ruling it out but I need to see better agreement starting on the models. I also don't quite get the OUN area people complaining bust when they'' still probably approach a foot storm total. Unless Corpus Christi or Beaumont did much better I'd be 100% pleased with as little as 3 inches of snow, I guess because it is rare. A white lawn may not be 100% but I'm still pretty happy with any amount.

[rwfromkansas]

Seeing some Fort Worth slide offs on I-20 on social. Think it’s getting slicker.

[Cpv17]

0.64 inches of much appreciated cold rain at IAH, about 5 miles away. Down to 46F. HGX at my house adding up the 0.1 to 0.2 inches FZRA tonight and 0.1 to 0.3 tomorrow morning (forecast disco, they are following coldest guidance). 0.2 inches is enough to get surface streets quite dangerous. Max both periods totalling 0.5 inches would start affecting trees and powerlines. My gut looking at the mesos, especially the HRRR from 12Z (and a check on the 15Z) is that about a tenth of ice to as much as two tenths will fall on my yard. The Houston/Harris County advice of staying off the roads if possible is quite sound.

44F now at the airport. Down 2F in an hour.

I am nowhere near sold on next weekend. Not ruling it out but I need to see better agreement starting on the models. I also don't quite get the OUN area people complaining bust when they'' still probably approach a foot storm total. Unless Corpus Christi or Beaumont did much better I'd be 100% pleased with as little as 3 inches of snow, I guess because it is rare. A white lawn may not be 100% but I'm still pretty happy with any amount.

Next week needs to trend colder, IMO. At least for our area. Then I’d begin to feel more confident about it.

[TomballEd]

https://imgur.com/VVNYYS8

Nice. It took me a while to learn that. Open your imgur image in another tab and past that into image.

[BrokenGlass]

Getting some frizzle in Addison right now. Warming up my jeep for an adventure out.


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[cheezyWXguy]

Getting some frizzle in Addison right now. Warming up my jeep for an adventure out.


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Why drive if you don’t have to? Freezing drizzle sucks to drive in because the roads are fine until the moment they aren’t. Then we get videos like the one in fort worth before the main event in 2021