Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

El Nino · #4761 Postby **El Nino** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:53 pm

Cat4 is a small possibility but latest frames are not really good news. Intensification on IR image and radar images too. And allready probability of a borderline cat3.

thermos · #4762 Postby **thermos** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:53 pm

Why would you stay in the Keys for a Cat 2? That's no picnic. Maybe they are worried about their property, boats, etc. Or just evac weary.

Stratosphere747 · #4763 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:56 pm

Wilma's trek through the loop current is about to end. Hopefully this will help the small intensification process we have seen come to a halt.

6SpeedTA95 · #4764 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:56 pm

ronibaida wrote:People!!... understand that thousands of people did not evacuate becuase she is a cat 2, but i bet it will get to cat4... People
are in deep Number 2!!!!!!!!

What info do you have to support this claim? The storm really is being sheared on the north side which will effect her breathing. I can see a 3, but a four? It takes exponentially more energy to get to a 4 than it does a 3

Myersgirl · #4765 Postby **Myersgirl** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:56 pm

The eye appears to be nearly horizontal

inotherwords · #4766 Postby **inotherwords** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:58 pm

soonertwister wrote:
inotherwords wrote:Big windy thunderstorm right now near Venice. Our first feeder band?

How is the weather elsewhere?

Appears to be, but it won't be going back to the hurricane because the outer bands are being sheared off to the NNE. But nearer to the eye, Wilma keeps looking better by the hour. The appearing of intensely cold high cloud tops is not a good sign.

Tornado warning just issued for several counties north of here. The sky does not look good toward the SE..it's that weird color it gets when tornado risks are high.

This is going to be quite a roller coaster ride. I have DSL and wifi and just charged up the laptop, so I'll check in here if (more likely when) power goes out as the storm gets closer.

calidoug · #4767 Postby **calidoug** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:59 pm

Myersgirl wrote:The eye appears to be nearly horizontal

You can't judge the eye from an IR pic unless the system is extremely well organized.

Look at the Key West radar loop.

rainydaze · #4768 Postby **rainydaze** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:00 pm

The NHC is now changing tune...they are saying it might be intensifying at landfall rather than weakening..... :eek:

There's a chance that Wilma could be an intensifying Cat 2 or 3 at landfall.

IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP
UNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF
THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR
IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING
TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS
CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY
THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

calidoug · #4769 Postby **calidoug** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:00 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:The storm really is being sheared on the north side which will effect her breathing. I can see a 3, but a four? It takes exponentially more energy to get to a 4 than it does a 3

What shear?

El Nino · #4770 Postby **El Nino** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:03 pm

Tornado warning to the East of Tampa, according to KW large radar ...

fasterdisaster · #4771 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:04 pm

IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP
UNTIL LANDFALL

FlaNativeMom · #4772 Postby **FlaNativeMom** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:04 pm

Whoa! Tornado warning here in Lakeland. Channel 8 Storm Tracker & radar shows a NASTY cell headed right our way. Here we go, folks!

6SpeedTA95 · #4773 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:06 pm

calidoug wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:The storm really is being sheared on the north side which will effect her breathing. I can see a 3, but a four? It takes exponentially more energy to get to a 4 than it does a 3

What shear?

Look at tampa and head straight west...

Wirbelsturm · #4774 Postby **Wirbelsturm** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:07 pm

Shear only affects the core of the storm. shear to the north won't matter a bit!

6SpeedTA95 · #4775 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:08 pm

An intensifying storm can cause significantly more damage than a weakening storm at landfall. A strengthening 2 or 3 will do some bad damage.

6SpeedTA95 · #4776 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:08 pm

Wirbelsturm wrote:Shear only affects the core of the storm. shear to the north won't matter a bit!

I meantiond that earlier, the core of the storm still looks pretty good but she has to be able to breath to grow to a 4 or 5. I dont see that being possible that shear up north is significant. You can watch it on the WV/IR and Visible scans

6SpeedTA95 · #4777 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:11 pm

It looks like its picking up a lot of forward momentum. The last two frames make it look as if its picked it up a notch or so.

johngaltfla · #4778 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:11 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP
UNTIL LANDFALL

El Nino · #4779 Postby **El Nino** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:11 pm

Who is talking seriously (with a quite high probability) a cat4 or even 5 cane ? Center of the storm is not exposed to shear, and will reach coast before it can have some impact.

When next RECON or any informations about central pressure and windspeed is programmed ?

ronibaida · #4780 Postby **ronibaida** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:11 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
Wirbelsturm wrote:Shear only affects the core of the storm. shear to the north won't matter a bit!

I meantiond that earlier, the core of the storm still looks pretty good but she has to be able to breath to grow to a 4 or 5. I dont see that being possible that shear up north is significant. You can watch it on the WV/IR and Visible scans

we know that it wont get to a cat 4 or 5.... Max is cat 3 or 120mph

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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