CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[caribepr]

Thanks, Derek...wish we could send you some PR coffee!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yikes! I don't like that bend in the track on Tuesday of next week. PERHAPS Texas should really keep an eye on this...

[oyster_reef]

TWC has the pressure down to 920 mb... LOL! and the met didn't even pick up on it being wrong.

i bet it won't be long before they are sending thier own planes in....
them or accuweather or someone like that.

[jhamps10]

looks like nhc slows it down in the carribean, landfall in yucatan monday evening, earlier advisories had it monday afternoon.

NHC does not like to point the cone at a US or Mexico landfall because there is uncertainty as to its final destination. Slowing it down allows them to not cause panic amongst the public.

Stop with the false information. Let's stay on the topic of Dean observations please.

was that comment pointed towards me? if so sorry, but I had thought it was slower than in previous advisories.


anyway back on track, the islands are of greatest importance right now, and it looks like a strong cat 2, weak cat 3 hurricane possible for them. stay safe those in the islands.

[mgpetre]

I made out a timeframe for my family in case a category 5 were to hit Houston directly. I used extrapolations from the National Hurricane Center's guidance on speed, position, and intensity. It is consistent with the speed and timing that the GFDL, WRF and GFS models are saying too. It is for Houston, but it should be roughly about the same for any other city in the western Gulf. Remember--this is just a worst case scenario for my area to help us think about what we might have to do.

Today--Houston, Galveston officials meet to discuss hurricane preparations and also regarding tonight's possible flood event, oil companies create plan for possible evacuations.
Friday night--Houston enters the 5 day National Hurricane Center cone of guidance (the big bullet-shaped blob).
Saturday morning--NHC's cone now has SE Texas landfall in it's 5 day cone of guidance. Storm currently south of Puerto Rico--Category 2.
...
Strengthens to Category 3.
Sunday afternoon--Galveston recommends people to plan for possible evacuation. Some start leaving Sunday night. Category 3 Storm has passed over or next to Jamaica causing great destruction. Western Gulf of Mexico Offshore oil platforms being evacuated.
Monday morning--Galveston issues evacuation orders.
Monday afternoon--South Houston, Pasadena, League City, etc. issue evacuation orders. Category 4-5 storm devastates Cozumel/Cancun, Mexico, enters Gulf.
Tuesday morning--Evacuation routes made unidirectional. Category 5 in central Gulf of Mexico, becoming a bigger, broader storm, possibly even reaching record-breaking strength, racing to the northwest. Hurricane Watch issued for our area.
Tuesday afternoon--Rest of the city begins evacuation. Squall lines begin to go through the city every 5 hours.
Tuesday night--Hurricane Warning issued. Winds at 25 mph.
Wednesday midday--Tropical storm force winds begin (40-74 mph). Large parts of city lose power. By afternoon, the whole city has lost power.
Wednesday night--30 foot storm surge washes over Galveston, south Houston and enters part of the 610 loop. Eye makes landfall around midnight.
Thursday late morning--winds go below hurricane strength.
Thursday night--winds go below tropical storm strength.

Sheesh. Talk about the absolute worst case scenario.

I understand where Vaffie is coming from though. In this area of TX it's critical to make decisions early and you MUST make those based on the worst case. I don't think by any means that Vaffie is trying to say this is what will happen, just that this is the situation we must ready ourselves for in case it does. If a Cat3 or higher hurricane hits directly up Galv. Bay then we need to be looking at leaving by Tues. at the latest, and as I've said before after the Rita fiasco there are tons of people that are simply going to stay in place no matter what. It could be a real mess and I think being a bit alarmist is better than assuming that the WCS won't happen. I pray it doesn't, but now is the time for everyone along the Gulf Coast to at least be saying "What if..."

[Acral]

Not good for any of the islands. Dean still appears to be a bit small like Dennis, but I don't guess that matters if you are sitting in the wind field.

[jhamps10]

TWC has the pressure down to 920 mb... LOL! and the met didn't even pick up on it being wrong.

i bet it won't be long before they are sending thier own planes in....
them or accuweather or someone like that.

TWC doesn't need to, they have at least 2 mets that work for the AF recon flights.

[crazycajuncane]

If the models happen to shift any more north over the next 72 hours then I would become concerned. Right now is still a wait and see game this far out. Right now Brownsville to Houston looks to be in the path of Dean if does indeed get off that westerly track into Mexico.

Wouldn't be shocked if the path changes north again, but also wouldn't be too excited about it.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Mean Dean!

[Beam]

I made out a timeframe for my family in case a category 5 were to hit Houston directly. I used extrapolations from the National Hurricane Center's guidance on speed, position, and intensity. It is consistent with the speed and timing that the GFDL, WRF and GFS models are saying too. It is for Houston, but it should be roughly about the same for any other city in the western Gulf. Remember--this is just a worst case scenario for my area to help us think about what we might have to do.

Today--Houston, Galveston officials meet to discuss hurricane preparations and also regarding tonight's possible flood event, oil companies create plan for possible evacuations.
Friday night--Houston enters the 5 day National Hurricane Center cone of guidance (the big bullet-shaped blob).
Saturday morning--NHC's cone now has SE Texas landfall in it's 5 day cone of guidance. Storm currently south of Puerto Rico--Category 2.
...
Strengthens to Category 3.
Sunday afternoon--Galveston recommends people to plan for possible evacuation. Some start leaving Sunday night. Category 3 Storm has passed over or next to Jamaica causing great destruction. Western Gulf of Mexico Offshore oil platforms being evacuated.
Monday morning--Galveston issues evacuation orders.
Monday afternoon--South Houston, Pasadena, League City, etc. issue evacuation orders. Category 4-5 storm devastates Cozumel/Cancun, Mexico, enters Gulf.
Tuesday morning--Evacuation routes made unidirectional. Category 5 in central Gulf of Mexico, becoming a bigger, broader storm, possibly even reaching record-breaking strength, racing to the northwest. Hurricane Watch issued for our area.
Tuesday afternoon--Rest of the city begins evacuation. Squall lines begin to go through the city every 5 hours.
Tuesday night--Hurricane Warning issued. Winds at 25 mph.
Wednesday midday--Tropical storm force winds begin (40-74 mph). Large parts of city lose power. By afternoon, the whole city has lost power.
Wednesday night--30 foot storm surge washes over Galveston, south Houston and enters part of the 610 loop. Eye makes landfall around midnight.
Thursday late morning--winds go below hurricane strength.
Thursday night--winds go below tropical storm strength.

It's excellent that you're thinking ahead, preparing yourself and your family, but here's a bit of advice: drop the whole category 5 aspect. Despite what happened in 2005, category 5 hurricanes are exceptionally rare, and you should be more than willing to get yourself and your family out if the storm is a category 2 or greater. Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma were all category 3 storms at landfall. Frances was a category 2 at landfall. All of them were exceptionally devastating and life-threatening.

Do not wait for a major hurricane in the gulf. You'd be surprised at the strength and severity of even a category 1. If Dean or any future hurricane threatens your city, get out as early as reasonably possible. Do not wait for evacuation orders. If you leave early and it misses, fine. Better safe than sorry.

[CronkPSU]

TWC has the pressure down to 920 mb... LOL! and the met didn't even pick up on it being wrong.

[Tenspeed]

Yikes! I don't like that bend in the track on Tuesday of next week. PERHAPS Texas should really keep an eye on this...

Everyone in the GOM should keep an eye on this. Those models are uncertain and things change fast.

[Ptarmigan]

Since Dean is a Category 2 hurricane, it would not surprise me if it becomes Category 3 soon. All the islands need to take action and prepare for Dean.

[marcane_1973]

I can't remember right off hand but can anyone answer me if a 979mb pressure usually supports winds as high as 100mph?

[ConvergenceZone]

000
THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE.

question is, where will that edge of the High be located and will it or will it not protect Texas?

[Brent]

Poor Jamaica.



Definitely has been a slight northward shift.

[RL3AO]

Since Dean is a Category 2 hurricane, it would not surprise me if it becomes Category 3 soon. All the islands need to take action and prepare for Dean.

Cat 3 by 5am is my guess.

[crazycajuncane]

Yikes! I don't like that bend in the track on Tuesday of next week. PERHAPS Texas should really keep an eye on this...

Everyone in the GOM should keep an eye on this. Those models are uncertain and things change fast.

2PM Sunday.... I truely hope that changes. Which Hurricane was it that we were on the board praying this thing would miss the island and I think it went around froma direct hit .... Ivan was it?

[hiflyer]

Been reading the stormcarib site....http://www.stormcarib.com/

as a few there have mentioned the bad news is that it will be a cat 2 at least...the good news is still a fairly small windfield and rapid advance which means severe conditions will not be that long over any given point for the easternmost islands. South coast of Jamaica is on the wrong side of this track....same with the just rebuilt Cayman Island.

Rode the snake http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml to see that the forecast track has been fairly consistent which also does not bode well. The models midday tomorrow should have swallowed a lot of the G4 mission data by then...I suspect that may be the first real chance of a model shift if any is to occur.

[canegrl04]

Yikes! I don't like that bend in the track on Tuesday of next week. PERHAPS Texas should really keep an eye on this...

Interesting .Showing a North trend.The CNN weather guy mentioned the model that forecasts Dean as 180mph cane