ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4781 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image

http


Is that the 12z UKMET? I'll be interested to see what the 00z Ukie has tonight.


If it's anything like the last few days it will shift east at 0z...it seems the UKMET goes west at 12z and then east at 0z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4782 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:59 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4783 Postby hohnywx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:So far GFS is #1 for Matthew.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782759397776699393




With the important caveat that the Euro is not plotted
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4784 Postby otowntiger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:07 pm

Ken711 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:So is it safe to assume now that Matt is likely to OTS since both the Euro and GFS are on that predicition


Windshield wiper affect. Tomorrow they'll probably show landfall.

Something to consider with the windshield wiper effect going on is that the swipe is seemingly narrowing a bit and if you take average of all the swipes of the windshield wiper you get a very consistent and likely correct track, which is pretty much what the NHC does and is correct more often than not.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4785 Postby sandy18 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:09 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Most of those models listed at 00Z are pretty bad. You certainly don't want to use the BAM models. LBAR is terrible, OCD5 is climo-based, and the Navy variations of the GFDL are terrible. Of the models there, the TVCA (consensus model) is the best. It's also well east of the other (bad) models. HWRF has been quite inconsistent and can't be trusted. The AVNI is based on the 18Z GFS. Real 00Z models won't come in for 2-4 hours.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

But the GFS is a very good model, maybe the best at this point and has been remarkably consistent with this storm. It has been trending west and is now less then 150 miles off Florida. Any thoughts?

gfs had Matthew coming on shore right over Newport NC where I live this morning now its off shore is not being very consistent but I guess thats a good think thats its off shore of us now
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4786 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:37 pm

[/quote]

Is that the 12z UKMET? I'll be interested to see what the 00z Ukie has tonight.[/quote]

If it's anything like the last few days it will shift east at 0z...it seems the UKMET goes west at 12z and then east at 0z.[/quote]

Actually it's been alot more consistent than the other 2 models, the reason why its considered by R Maue and other PHD'S as a world class model.
Don't think MODELS like this and the boms are its used much in your part of the world, Simply because of the Super computer power and the $$$ to run them is just not there. :lol:
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4787 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:So far GFS is #1 for Matthew.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782759397776699393




It's interesting that the UKMET has been the 2nd best...especially considering the 12z run is onshore in Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4788 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:41 pm

WPB TV Met thoughts on 00z hurricane model guidance

 https://twitter.com/TyTheWeatherGuy/status/782764510784450560


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4789 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:49 pm

toad strangler wrote:WPB TV Met thoughts on 00z hurricane model guidance

 https://twitter.com/TyTheWeatherGuy/status/782764510784450560




Yes the spaghetti plots have come closer together..they have also shifted westward all day long...check out the 6z 12z and 18z for comparisons to the 0z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4790 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:53 pm

Remember, we are trying to keep the models thread technical in nature and usable by those looking for model information. Posts will be deleted to keep this thread clean, please use the discussion thread if you are not making an informed observation of a model run or asking a question about a run.

Thanks.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4791 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:57 pm

hohnywx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:So far GFS is #1 for Matthew.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782759397776699393




With the important caveat that the Euro is not plotted


Perfect censorship!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4792 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:00 pm

toad strangler wrote:WPB TV Met thoughts on 00z hurricane model guidance

 https://twitter.com/TyTheWeatherGuy/status/782764510784450560




Most of those models on that chart are low/res runs,i would not give them a second look. I hope the UKMET is wrong but until the storm re curves OTS don't say you was not pre-warned. :wink:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4793 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:12 pm

New Cone keeps nearly the entire coast from FL through NC on edge.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4794 Postby MWatkins » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:14 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:So far GFS is #1 for Matthew.

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782759397776699393




With the important caveat that the Euro is not plotted


Perfect censorship!


Not censorship. Unlike the US guidance, Euro hurricane track geo-coded, verifiable data is not available for free. It's quite expensive.

MW
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4795 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:17 pm

Been shifting westward all day..

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4796 Postby MWatkins » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:22 pm

Latest model trends for all of the dynamic GFS derived guidance and the official forecast. GFS ensembles have come the furthest west in the last 2 days.

Image

MW
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4797 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:26 pm

GFS initialized...ridge looks stronger once again.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4798 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:26 pm

You know all this means is the 00z GFS goes east tonight... :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4799 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:29 pm

Blown Away wrote:You know all this means is the 00z GFS goes east tonight... :lol:

Most likely! Stronger ridge means further East. :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4800 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:33 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Blown Away wrote:You know all this means is the 00z GFS goes east tonight... :lol:

Most likely! Stronger ridge means further East. :lol:

GFS logic lol
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